I was running a chat last week, and I got a question about how much I believe the pre-season should affect your fantasy draft strategy. I thought this was an excellent question, so I decided to talk more about it here.
The preseason is a lot like the various summer leagues as well as international play, in that there is no way to directly apply results there to future success in a season. Different players have different things that they want/need to work on in the offseason, and these individual goals play a huge part in the numbers they produce. Some young players are trying to make the team, so they are going 110% at all times to try to produce. On the other hand, many vets just want to use the preseason to get in shape and not get hurt, so they may coast through many games at 70%. Some players are working on a particular move or shot, and may care more about perfecting that move than about their overall output. These factors and many more cloud the offseason results enough that they should not be the main deciding influence on your draft strategy.
On the other hand, there are three main things that I look for as useful information to be gleaned from the preseason.
1) Big injuries. While it is obvious that you want to avoid drafting a player if they suffer a huge injury in the preseason/offseason, it is also important to look for who can take advantage of those injuries. Two years ago, the big injury to Amare Stoudemire led to the explosion of Boris Diaw. Last season the fall of Jason Richardson led to the rise of Monta Ellis. Who will it be this year?
Possible examples this year: Chris Kaman, Tim Thomas, Al Thornton (injured Elton Brand); Smush Parker, Dorrell Wright (injured Dwyane Wade, Jason Williams, out-of-shape Antoine Walker); Adam Morrison, Walter Herrman, Jared Dudley (Sean May); Brendan Haywood, Andray Blatche, Oleksiy Pecherove (Etan Thomas)
2) Young guys ready to make a leap. If you look over the last several years, often the "come from nowhere" free agent pickups really played well in the preseason and/or summer leagues. For young players with talent, there is a point where they get adjusted to the speed of the NBA game and they are able to stop thinking and just play ball. Al Jefferson, Kevin Martin, and David Lee are just a few that I can think of off the top of my head that played well in the offseason then eventually made the leap in the regular season. Warning: not every offseason warrior is a star in the making, as Nicoloz Tskitishvilli was a summer league legend that was never heard from once the games count for real.
Possible examples this year: Dwight Howard, Al Horford, Marco Belinelli, Louis Williams, Martell Webster, Marquis Daniels
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3) Position battles. When multiple players are battling for one position, often the one that plays better in the preseason will be the opening day starter. One of my colleagues has already done a good job laying out most of the position battles , so I won't belabor those here. I'll just say to keep an eye on the preseason box scores, especially the minutes played, to start getting an inkling over who might be starting opening night.