While the AL Trade inventory appears bleak*, the NL appears to have more players ready to move, even with the Chase Headley trade Tuesday removing one of the primary trade targets.
* I'm not buying into the John Danks trade rumors. His contract remains too prohibitive for the potential payoff, even with baseball awash in TV money. Where's the payoff for the acquiring team? His strikeout rate (6.3 K/9) is well below average in today's high-strikeout environment. Maybe, just maybe, a trade to the NL would boost his worth, but I doubt that the White Sox can extract a prospect worth their effort in giving an acquiring team salary-relief.
A quick gander at the NL Wild Card standings illustrates more sure-fire sellers than the AL. Besides the Cubs and Padres, who have already commenced fire sales, the Rockies, Phillies (though you can never count on Ruben Amaro Jr. to realize he needs to sell, especially if such a realization also signals that his job is in jeopardy), Diamondbacks and Mets are good candidates to sell, and the Marlins might end up there too.
What do these teams have left to offer?
Padres - It's fascinating that the Padres have pulled off two significant trades before hiring their new GM. The relatively quick trades of Huston Street and Chase Headley point to one of the reasons why former GM Josh Byrnes was fired. He wasn't able or willing to cash in on Headley's peak season, nor on a rare extended stretch of health from Street. How much latitude will the new GM have? Will the ownership group be behind every significant deal?
Ian Kennedy is cheap this year and affordable on a team option for next year. The Padres don't have to trade him, but they'd also be wise to see what sort of ransom they can extract. If David Price, Jon Lester and James Shields aren't available, Kennedy might be the best current option, depending on what you think about Cliff Lee's current form. Will the Padres be willing to spin off Joaquin Benoit a half-season after they signed him? How much salary relief will they have to give to extract the right prospect package? Carlos Quentin's contract extension was ill-conceived but he used to at least hit well when he was healthy, but this year he's been an unmitigated disaster. With one more year left on his contract, is there an AL team willing to take a shot at using him as a DH?
Rockies - I'd really like to see what Jorge De La Rosa could do in a neutral ballpark, now that he's seemingly healthy and knows how to better use his repertoire of pitches. I haven't seen any trade rumors involving him, however. What I have seen are only denials of players being in play - be it Troy Tulowitzki, or more reasonably even Michael Cuddyer - though the interest in him was expressed over a month ago, before his shoulder injury. The Rockies have always been difficult to read, so I don't want to assume I know what they intend to do at this time. Justin Morneau's neck injury seems ill-timed, in case they wanted to showcase him as a possible trade target.
Cubs - The Cubs made their big trade already, dealing both Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel in one deal and getting a strong return in the form of Addison Russell, Billy McKinney and Dan Straily. By most accounts, they have a top-five farm system, perhaps rivaling Houston's as the best in the baseball. Are Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein done, or do they have more room to maneuver? With the acquisition of Russell, one figures that Starlin Castro could go at any time, but the Cubs aren't in any rush, given that they just moved Javier Baez to second base and Russell missed a significant chunk of time earlier this season.
Aside from that, any other possible deal that the Cubs could make seem minor. Perhaps Wesley Wright could draw interest as a lefty specialist, and the Cubs would love to find value out of Nate Schierholtz, Justin Ruggiano and Emilio Bonifacio.
Phillies - Aside from the Rays, and maybe even more so than the Rays, this is the team that could play the biggest role in shaping the last two months of the season. They have copious chances to sell off their older players to begin the rebuilding process, if only they would commit to doing so. Cliff Lee returned from the DL on Monday, only to get knocked around by the Giants. Pitchers are rarely at their best, however, in their first start back, so an enterprising team could *maybe* buy a little below Lee's market value if they're willing to gamble on his health. Antonio Bastardo is likely to draw plenty of trade interest, and so might Jonathan Papelbon, though concerns about his contract and his velocity might cool some of that interest.
The big question, however, is whether the Phillies will actually commit to rebuilding? Keith Law's very first article for ESPN.com addressed the "Moral Hazard" question that GMs face when making the cold, calculating decision to sell, when such a decision might indicate that the GM has failed in his job, and prevent him from being around to see the fruits of the rebuilding process. Arguably Lee, Bastardo, Papelbon, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Marlon Byrd and Carlos Ruiz could all be dealt by the deadline, but Amaro infrequently has shown that inclination to sell, with the exception being the Hunter Pence trade from a couple of seasons ago. Their most valuable trade property, Cole Hamels, has already been pulled off the trade block.
Diamondbacks - The Diamondbacks have already started the selling process, dealing Brandon McCarthy to the Yankees for Vidal Nuno. The two most likely trade candidates remaining both have worrisome contracts - Aaron Hill and Martin Prado. I could see Brad Ziegler drawing some interest, though not as a closer.
Mets - The Mets have already made it clear that Bartolo Colon could be available, and he certainly put on a nice exhibition for potential acquiring teams Wednesday at Seattle. In fact, the Mets could conceivable be the answer to the starting pitcher shortage on the market, given their depth of pitching prospects. Beyond Colon, we could also see Jon Niese and Dillon Gee eventually getting dealt, with Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero on the way. If you own either of the latter, I wouldn't be too alarmed by their Triple-A stats - they play in a launching pad park (Las Vegas) in a launching pad league, and we're starting to see that we've underestimated just how much that alters a prospect's numbers there.
This could be a great trade deadline, with the likes of Price, Lester, Lee and Kennedy in play, or it could be a big dud. Hopefully the smaller deals that we've already seen are harbingers for more movement.