The RotoWire Staff Keeper League auction took place Tuesday night - it started at 11 pm Western European Time and lasted until 4:20 am. It's an 18-team mixed league with a standard 23-man roster, seven bench spots and 10 minor leaguers. You're allowed to keep up to 15 players from the previous year with the caveat that heading into their third (C) years with your team you have to either (1) keep them at their current prices, but lose them to free agency in 2018; or (2) extend them at an additional cost of $5 per year extended. So if you had Mike Trout heading into Year 3 at $40, you could keep him this year at $40, keep him through 2018 at $45 per year, 2019 at $50 per, etc. So when you extend players they not only are more expensive in the future, they're also more expensive in the present. (This is an important point which I discuss below.)
Liss and Shoe's Dynasty, the team I share with RotoWire COO Tim Schuler (Shoe), has been a contender almost every year and won the league twice, but last year I did a poor job at the auction, and we had to tank and trade for keepers. In the end, it might have been a good thing as we reloaded with $3 Mookie Betts and $3 George Springer heading into their C years to join Nolan Arenado $13 (in his walk year) and Carlos Correa ($3 B) among others.
Here's the pre-auction roster:
Pos | Player | Amt |
---|---|---|
2b | Cesar Hernandez | $2 |
ss | Carlos Correa | $3 |
3b | Nolan Arenado | $13 |
ci | Matt Duffy | $3 |
mi | Aledmys Diaz | $3 |
of | George Springer | $13 |
of | Mookie Betts | $13 |
ut | Kendrys Morales | $6 |
p | Ivan Nova | $1 |
p | Jharel Cotton | $4 |
p | Drew Smyly | $7 |
p | Jim Johnson | $ |
Notice the three $13 superstars. They're not that price by coincidence. The rule for minor leaguers in this format is they're keepable for free indefinitely until they reach the majors and pass a threshold of time there (20 or 30 games.) The following year they show up on your roster as $3A players. So many prospects that turn into stars are initially kept at $3.
When they go into their third seasons on our team, as mentioned above, we have the choice to keep them this year for three, this year and next for $8 per, this year, next and the one after that for $13, etc. Shoe and I pretty much never extend anyone beyond three years and $13 for a few reasons:
(1) When you're a contender this year, you want to save as much present money as possible to build the strongest roster around the star players, i.e., you'd rather have a $50 profit on a player for one year than a $1 profit on him for 50 years;
(2) While player performance is always uncertain and hard to predict, it's far easier to predict 2017 than it is 2020. Every year out, you have to regress player values to the mean, yet the further out you go, the more expensive the player gets; and
(3) There's a time value to money - or enjoyment - we'd rather have a better team now and deal with 2020 when we get there - if we get there. Between the threats of environmental catastrophe, nuclear war, global economic collapse, viruses and the supervolcano, who knows? And if this strategy turns out to be wrong, we can argue hindsight is 20/20, and in 2020 our case will have particular resonance.
Seriously though, we've never gone more than 3 and $13 on a player, and we've rarely regretted it, while avoiding Carl Crawford's and Cliff Lee's abrupt collapses. Paul Goldschmidt, whom we extended to three and $13 in 2014, might put that to the test this year, but we won a title in 2015, and who knows if that would still have happened had he been $5 or $10 more expensive? I can also see a good case for making Mookie Betts an $18 2020 player rather than a $13 2019 one, though the fact that I would leave $5 on the table at this year's auction (more on that below) wasn't knowable at the time.
In any event, we had strong keepers, and heading into the auction, we had the most money ($188) to spend, though we knew it wouldn't go that far given the high levels of inflation in keeper formats. To understand why there's so much inflation, consider we had Betts, Springer and Arenado at $13 and Correa at $3 among other bargains. If in a re-draft league, Betts would go for $40, Arenado for $38, Correa for $32 and Springer for $28, that means we're making a profit of $96 on those four alone. If we say we're $120 to the good total for all our keepers, that means we have $120 to spend on the remaining pool that we wouldn't had we simply rostered those players in a regular auction.
Even if other teams haven't amassed that much keeper equity - give them $80 on average - that's still quite a bit ($1440) when multiplied by 18 teams. In fact, there's only 18 * $260 ($4680 total), so we're talking about 31 percent of the entire budget as stashed profit. So you can imagine what's going to happen when $1440 that shouldn't be there as well as all the money that should is unleashed on the available player pool. So instead of getting Bumgarner for $30, I budgeted closer to $50, for example. (He went for $57.)
My goal was to get at least one star pitcher (Bumgarner, Scherzer or Strasburg), one ~$30 pitcher (hopefully Gerrit Cole), one star closer (Mark Melancon was our target), one big outfield bat (I had written Ryan Braun for $42 into the spread sheet) and another outfield bat with upside (Yasiel Puig for ~$15 was our target there.) I would skimp on catcher, the last outfield spot and the last pitching slot or two. It's good to have some low-priced players for keeper purposes too.
We were also full at MI and 3B, and Kendrys Morales was clogging our utility, so I could not even bid on middle infielders or third basemen during the auction. Moreover, once I bought a first baseman, we were also locked out of all corners in the end game, i.e., I could bid or nominate only pitchers, outfielders and catchers.
Mostly, I achieved our goals. I got Strasburg for $45 - $3 more than I guessed I'd have to pay, but I wasn't going to make the same mistake as last year when I let all the top pitchers pass me by. I got Cole for $34, again a few dollars over budget, but we had our two 200-K types (if healthy) that we needed. I got Melancon for $27, a couple dollars under budget and a good bargain after I let Aroldis Chapman go to Jeff Erickson for $37 (I was the $36 bid.)
We didn't need as much hitting, but we needed some. Ryan Braun went past my $42 target, and I let him go. Carlos Gonzalez, the backup plan in that slot, went to $47, and even Puig went to $19, and I bowed out. I settled for Carlos Santana for $26 and Carlos Gomez for $18 as our significant bats, got two cheap catchers with upside (both on the Brewers) and splurged $19 for Cam Bedrosian, perhaps my one rash move of the auction. But our other closer, Jim Johnson, is shaky, and having three closers is a big advantage in a league this deep where your last starter is as likely to hurt as help you in a given outing. I actually left $5 on the table because my target Gerardo Parra went for only $1 instead of the $5-6 for which I had budgeted him. All told, I feel good about this team, but relying on Strasburg is obviously risky, and Bedrosian was expensive for a guy who's not a lock to have the closer job.
I won't bore you with our minor league/reserve picks, except to say we got A.J. Reed who I think is a nice post-hype prospect target late in drafts:
Here are the full rosters:
Thornbury | Liss/Shoe | Siegrist | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Amt | Pos | Player | Amt | Pos | Player | Amt |
Chris Hermann | $5 | c | Andrew Susac | $2 | c | Travis d'Arnaud | $8 |
Kurt Suzuki | $2 | c | Jett Bandy | $2 | c | Wilson Ramos | $7 |
Chris Davis | $50 | 1b | Carlos Santana | $26 | 1b | Tommy Joseph | $6 |
Dee Gordon | $45 | 2b | Cesar Hernandez | $2 | 2b | Starlin Castro | $16 |
Andrelton Simmons | $3 | ss | Carlos Correa | $3 | ss | Jose Peraza | $3 |
Hernan Perez | $3 | 3b | Nolan Arenado | $13 | 3b | Ryon Healy | $3 |
Jhonny Peralta | $5 | ci | Matt Duffy | $3 | ci | Josh Bell | $3 |
Neil Walker | $15 | mi | Aledmys Diaz | $3 | mi | Marcus Semien | $8 |
Domingo Santana | $3 | of | George Springer | $13 | of | Byron Buxton | $3 |
Giancarlo Stanton | $26 | of | Mookie Betts | $13 | of | Ian Desmond | $25 |
Michael Saunders | $4 | of | Carlos Gomez | $18 | of | Andrew McCutchen | $31 |
Adam Eaton | $33 | of | Kevin Pillar | $8 | of | Jay Bruce | $17 |
David Peralta | $11 | of | Gerardo Parra | $1 | of | Kole Calhoun | $19 |
Greg Bird | $3 | ut | Kendrys Morales | $6 | ut | Amed Rosaro | $2 |
James Paxton | $3 | p | Ivan Nova | $1 | p | Lance Lynn | $5 |
Taijuan Walker | $3 | p | Jharel Cotton | $4 | p | Julio Teheran | $8 |
Robbie Ray | $3 | p | Drew Smyly | $7 | p | Tanner Roark | $2 |
Shawn Kelley | $22 | p | Stephen Strasburg | $45 | p | Kevin Gausman | $19 |
Garrett Richards | $14 | p | Gerrit Cole | $34 | p | Madison Bumgarner | $57 |
Nate Karns | $1 | p | Cam Bedrosian | $19 | p | Trevor Bauer | $7 |
Chris Devenski | $1 | p | Patrick Corbin | $1 | p | A.J. Ramos | $3 |
CC Sabathia | $1 | p | Mark Melancon | $27 | p | Mike Montgomery | $2 |
Andrew Triggs | $2 | p | Jim Johnson | $4 | p | Edwin Diaz | $4 |
Cohen | Anderson | Schindel | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Amt | Pos | Player | Amt | Pos | Player | Amt |
J.T. Realmuto | $3 | c | Tyler Flowers | $3 | c | Austin Hedges | $6 |
Mike Zunino | $9 | c | Devin Mesoraco | $5 | c | James McCann | $3 |
Adrian Gonzalez | $25 | 1b | Joe Mauer | $2 | 1b | Freddie Freeman | $18 |
Brandon Phillips | $7 | 2b | Ian Kinsler | $23 | 2b | Rougned Odor | $18 |
Manny Machado | $18 | ss | Eduardo Nunez | $4 | ss | Asdrubal Cabrera | $2 |
Evan Longoria | $36 | 3b | Kris Bryant | $25 | 3b | Justin Turner | $6 |
Pablo Sandoval | $1 | ci | Jose Abreu | $39 | ci | Todd Frazier | $31 |
Logan Forsythe | $1 | mi | Jean Segura | $13 | mi | Matt Carpenter | $25 |
A.J. Pollock | $27 | of | Ben Revere | $5 | of | Dexter Fowler | $16 |
Keon Broxton | $1 | of | Christian Yelich | $18 | of | Alex Gordon | $3 |
Michael Conforto | $3 | of | Corey Dickerson | $10 | of | Brandon Drury | $3 |
Carlos Beltran | $11 | of | Nick Markakis | $5 | of | Carlos Gonzalez | $47 |
Nelson Cruz | $25 | of | Brandon Moss | $5 | of | Cameron Maybin | $6 |
Charlie Tilson | $1 | ut | Raul Mondesi | $3 | ut | Avisail Garcia | $2 |
Sonny Gray | $8 | p | Collin McHugh | $9 | p | Yu Darvish | $15 |
Carlos Carrasco | $11 | p | Matt Harvey | $18 | p | Danny Salazar | $9 |
Aaron Sanchez | $5 | p | Max Scherzer | $51 | p | Brandon Finnegan | $3 |
Vince Velasquez | $3 | p | Huston Street | $1 | p | Steven Wright | $1 |
Archie Bradley | $3 | p | Jason Hammel | $10 | p | Jon Gray | $3 |
Tyler Anderson | $1 | p | Carter Capps | $2 | p | Cody Allen | $26 |
Zack Greinke | $24 | p | Tyler Thornburg | $1 | p | Josh Tomlin | $4 |
Kyle Hendricks | $36 | p | Brad Brach | $1 | p | Kyle Barraclough | $1 |
Blake Treinen | $1 | p | Addison Reed | $3 | p | Roberto Osuna | $9 |
Huss/Meyer | Rusignola | Payne | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Amt | Pos | Player | Amt | Pos | Player | Amt |
Stephen Vogt | $3 | c | Francisco Cervelli | $4 | c | Gary Sanchez | $3 |
Geovany Soto | $1 | c | Buster Posey | $40 | c | Tom Murphy | $14 |
Joey Votto | $53 | 1b | Travis Shaw | $1 | 1b | Mitch Moreland | $5 |
Howie Kendrick | $1 | 2b | Jose Altuve | $42 | 2b | Javier Baez | $3 |
Freddy Galvis | $2 | ss | Tyler Saladino | $1 | ss | Corey Seager | $3 |
Yunel Escobar | $3 | 3b | Jake Lamb | $1 | 3b | Jose Reyes | $13 |
Jonathan Villar | $3 | ci | Jung Ho Kang | $10 | ci | Brandon Belt | $19 |
Alcides Escobar | $4 | mi | Joe Panik | $5 | mi | Zack Cozart | $5 |
Matt Kemp | $30 | of | Adam Duvall | $5 | of | Ender Inciarte | $1 |
Randal Grichuk | $5 | of | Joc Pederson | $3 | of | Colby Rasmus | $1 |
Ryan Braun | $44 | of | Khris Davis | $21 | of | Tyler Naquin | $3 |
Leonys Martin | $11 | of | Curtis Granderson | $12 | of | Jacoby Ellsbury | $19 |
Matt Joyce | $1 | of | Gregory Polanco | $13 | of | Michael Brantley | $11 |
Adrian Beltre | $36 | ut | Danny Valencia | $2 | ut | Victor Martinez | $8 |
Sean Manaea | $3 | p | Ian Kennedy | $11 | p | Joe Ross | $3 |
Jerad Eickhoff | $6 | p | Rich Hill | $8 | p | Clayton Kershaw | $74 |
Jose Quintana | $28 | p | Tyler Skaggs | $1 | p | Raisel Iglesias | $8 |
Junior Guerra | $8 | p | Chris Sale | $48 | p | Chris Archer | $13 |
Jeremy Hellickson | $7 | p | Joe Musgrove | $12 | p | Brandon Maurer | $12 |
Franicso Liriano | $6 | p | Jaime Garcia | $1 | p | Seth Lugo | $1 |
Chad Green | $1 | p | Shelby Miller | $1 | p | Luke Weaver | $1 |
Tony Watson | $1 | p | Wade Davis | $11 | p | Ryan Madson | $5 |
Nate Jones | $3 | p | Jeurys Familia | $5 | p | Kenley Jansen | $19 |
Regan | Link | Erickson | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pos | Player | Amt | Pos | Player | Amt | Pos | Player | Amt |
c | Brian McCann | $18 | c | Yasmani Grandal | $16 | c | Welington Castillo | $1 |
c | Sandy Leon | $6 | c | Russell Martin | $17 | c | Miguel Montero | $1 |
1b | Hanley Ramirez | $27 | 1b | Wil Myers | $8 | 1b | Justin Bour | $3 |
2b | Robinson Cano | $34 | 2b | Jonathan Schoop | $3 | 2b | DJ LeMahieu | $26 |
ss | Tim Beckham | $1 | ss | Orlando Arcia | $3 | ss | Trevor Story | $3 |
3b | Alex Bregman | $3 | 3b | Miguel Sano | $3 | 3b | Anthony Rendon | $8 |
ci | C.J. Cron | $3 | ci | Yoan Moncada | $20 | ci | Yuli Gurriel | $7 |
mi | Kolten Wong | $5 | mi | Brad Miller | $14 | mi | Didi Gregorius | $7 |
of | J.D. Martinez | $21 | of | Andrew Benintendi | $3 | of | Charlie Blackmon | $12 |
of | Jorge Soler | $3 | of | Nomar Mazara | $3 | of | Mike Trout | $28 |
of | Rajai Davis | $8 | of | Stephen Piscotty | $3 | of | Justin Upton | $35 |
of | Andrew Toles | $1 | of | Eric Thames | $25 | of | Shin-Soo Choo | $8 |
of | Mitch Haniger | $1 | of | Kevin Kiermaier | $18 | of | Chris Owings | $5 |
ut | Paul Goldschmidt | $61 | ut | Melky Cabrera | $13 | ut | Trevor Plouffe | 2 |
p | Corey Kluber | $14 | p | Blake Snell | $11 | p | Alex Cobb | $5 |
p | Matt Moore | $11 | p | Carlos Rodon | $14 | p | Adam Conley | $1 |
p | Michael Fulmer | $3 | p | Daniel Norris | $3 | p | Marcus Stroman | $3 |
p | Dylan Bundy | $3 | p | Matt Andriese | $1 | p | Dallas Keuchel | $13 |
p | Adam Wainwright | $16 | p | Danny Duffy | $32 | p | Johnny Cueto | $44 |
p | Dan Straily | $8 | p | Michael Pineda | $12 | p | Aroldis Chapman | $37 |
p | Greg Holland | $6 | p | Jeff Samardzjia | $21 | p | Eduardo Rodriguez | $3 |
p | Sean Doolittle | $2 | p | Kelvin Herrera | $1 | p | Hector Neris | $3 |
p | Alex Colome | $5 | p | Carl Edwards Jr. | $1 | p | Neftali Feliz | $5 |
Rufe | Levine | McKeown | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pos | Player | Amt | Pos | Player | Amt | Pos | Player | Amt |
c | Tony Wolters | $2 | c | Jonathan Lucroy | $22 | c | Matt Wieters | $13 |
c | Nick Hundley | $2 | c | Willson Contreras | $1 | c | Cameron Rupp | $7 |
1b | Chris Carter | $3 | 1b | Edwin Encarnacion | $47 | 1b | Albert Pujols | $22 |
2b | Dustin Pedroia | $16 | 2b | Jason Kipnis | $21 | 2b | Devon Travis | $3 |
ss | Tim Anderson | $3 | ss | Addison Russell | $3 | ss | Dansby Swanson | $3 |
3b | Kyle Seager | $15 | 3b | Maikel Franco | $3 | 3b | Nick Castellanos | $8 |
ci | Lucas Duda | $1 | ci | Adonis Garcia | $1 | ci | Jurickson Profar | $5 |
mi | Francisco Lindor | $3 | mi | Elvis Andrus | $21 | mi | Ben Zobrist | $17 |
of | Kyle Schwarber | $3 | of | Odubel Herrera | $5 | of | Lorenzo Cain | $11 |
of | Trea Turner | $3 | of | Aaron Judge | $3 | of | Steven Souza Jr. | $8 |
of | Jason Heyward | $23 | of | David Dahl | $3 | of | Yasiel Puig | $19 |
of | Starling Marte | $13 | of | Yoenis Cespedes | $49 | of | Yasmany Tomas | $15 |
of | Bryce Harper | $60 | of | Matt Holliday | $6 | of | Marcell Ozuna | $19 |
ut | Mike Moustakas | $11 | ut | Chelsor Cuthbert | $1 | ut | Joey Gallo | $1 |
p | Aaron Nola | $3 | p | Noah Syndergaard | $3 | p | Michael Wacha | $8 |
p | Luis Severino | $3 | p | Rick Porcello | $1 | p | Gio Gonzalez | $13 |
p | Masahiro Tanaka | $30 | p | Steven Matz | $3 | p | Lance McCullers | $13 |
p | Robert Gsellman | $8 | p | Matt Shoemaker | $6 | p | Justin Verlander | $25 |
p | Carlos Martinez | $8 | p | Jake Arrieta | $23 | p | Hisashi Iwakuma | $11 |
p | David Price | $29 | p | Jacob deGrom | $20 | p | Felix Hernandez | $25 |
p | Dellin Betances | $11 | p | Koda Glover | $1 | p | Jeanmar Gomez | $11 |
p | Francisco Rodriguez | $5 | p | Adam Ottavino | $5 | p | Zack Wheeler | $1 |
p | Seung Hwan Oh | $2 | p | Ken Giles | $8 | p | Drew Hutchison | $1 |
Browns | Clemeno | Schoenke | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pos | Player | Amt | Pos | Player | Amt | Pos | Player | Amt |
c | Yan Gomes | $4 | c | Bruce Maxwell | $1 | c | Yadier Molina | $11 |
c | Jason Castro | $2 | c | Martin Maldonado | $1 | c | Salvador Perez | $27 |
1b | Mike Napoli | $4 | 1b | Anthony Rizzo | $59 | 1b | Eric Hosmer | $18 |
2b | Ryan Schrimpf | $1 | 2b | Jedd Gyorko | $9 | 2b | Brian Dozier | $10 |
ss | Brandon Crawford | $4 | ss | Xander Bogaerts | $18 | ss | Jorge Polanco | $3 |
3b | Jose Ramirez | $11 | 3b | Yangervis Solarte | $5 | 3b | Josh Donaldson | $13 |
ci | Miguel Cabrera | $53 | ci | Nick Senzel | $2 | ci | Eugenio Suarez | $1 |
mi | Josh Harrison | $16 | mi | Troy Tulowitzki | $19 | mi | Daniel Murphy | $17 |
of | Raimel Tapia | $3 | of | Jackie Bradley | $5 | of | Jarrod Dyson | $1 |
of | Mark Trumbo | $18 | of | Max Kepler | $11 | of | Eddie Rosario | $3 |
of | Billy Hamilton | $13 | of | Adam Jones | $33 | of | Hunter Pence | $22 |
of | Jose Bautista | $30 | of | Josh Reddick | $8 | of | Brett Gardner | $9 |
of | Denard Span | $6 | of | Travis Jankowski | $2 | of | Jayson Werth | $8 |
ut | Martin Prado | $6 | ut | Blake Swihart | $1 | ut | Evan Gattis | $20 |
p | Zach Davies | $1 | p | J.A. Happ | $2 | p | Mike Foltynewicz | $6 |
p | John Lackey | $20 | p | Bartolo Colon | $1 | p | Ervin Santana | $8 |
p | Marco Estrada | $3 | p | Kenta Maeda | $31 | p | Anthony DeSclafani | $1 |
p | Jake Odorizzi | $8 | p | Clay Buchholz | $1 | p | Drew Pomeranz | $5 |
p | Jon Lester | $44 | p | Edinson Volquez | $1 | p | Zach Britton | $34 |
p | Scott Kazmir | $2 | p | Charlie Morton | $1 | p | Cole Hamels | $27 |
p | Wei-Yin Chen | $5 | p | Craig Kimbrel | $31 | p | Brandon Kintzler | $8 |
p | Sam Dyson | $4 | p | Andrew Miller | $6 | p | Jordan Zimmermann | $6 |
p | Fernando Rodney | $2 | p | David Robertson | $11 | p | Matt Strahm | $2 |