Last night (Western European Time), I took part in the 14-team Yahoo Friends and Family draft. It's based on Yahoo's quirky setup - only one catcher, four outfielders, two utilities, 1400-IP cap, daily moves (limit 125) - but it's one I enjoy, in part because of the competition in the league and also because the daily aspect allows you to act immediately on an idea rather than waiting for the weekly FAAB period by which point the idea might be obvious to everyone.
The downside of being able to grab players whenever you like is it requires you to be online and alert at all times. Two rules mitigate this problem (1) 125 move limit; and (2) players picked up today are active for games the next day, i.e., you can't see a mediocre second baseman hitting second in Coors Field and DFS him into your lineup. Moreover, because the owners are so sharp, there's rarely a prominent closer-in-waiting that's not already on someone's bench, so the sprint-to-the-wire-for-the-obvious pickup doesn't happen that often. Mostly, you know you need to speculate on the players who might be good in advance, and that's where the skill and fun is - knowing when a sample or role change is significant enough on which to act a little before others realize it.
In any event, here are the results:
RD | Salfino | Zinkie | Klabacha | Behrens | Erickson |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mike Trout | Clayton Kershaw | Mookie Betts | Kris Bryant | Nolan Arenado |
2 | Yu Darvish | Starling Marte | Joey Votto | Robinson Canó | Corey Kluber |
3 | Daniel Murphy | Freddie Freeman | Brian Dozier | Jake Arrieta | Nelson Cruz |
4 | Adrián Béltre | Matt Carpenter | J.D. Martínez | Dee Gordon | Zach Britton |
5 | Edwin Díaz | Seung Hwan | Kyle Schwarber | Chris Archer | Carlos González |
6 | Ian Kinsler | Todd Frazier | David Dahl | Evan Longoria | Billy Hamilton |
7 | Ken Giles | Matt Kemp | Alex Bregman | Andrew Miller | Kyle Hendricks |
8 | Julio Teherán | Justin Upton | David Robertson | Francisco Rodríguez | Dustin Pedroia |
9 | Adam Eaton | David Price | Tony Watson | José Bautista | Raisel Iglesias |
10 | Zack Greinke | Jason Kipnis | Héctor Neris | Adrián González | Kendrys Morales |
11 | Tim Anderson | Aarón Sánchez | Neftali Feliz | Carlos Santana | Eric Thames |
12 | Adam Duvall | Kole Calhoun | Troy Tulowitzki | Dexter Fowler | Jonathan Schoop |
13 | Joc Pederson | Marcell Ozuna | Javier Báez | Félix Hernández | Dansby Swanson |
14 | Tanner Roark | Dallas Keuchel | Evan Gattis | Michael Fulmer | Yasmani Grandal |
15 | Manuel Margot | Jay Bruce | Nate Jones | Ryan Madson | Brandon Drury |
16 | Sean Manaea | Carter Capps | José Reyes | Josh Bell | Matt Moore |
17 | Chris Carter | Jung Ho | Jarrod Dyson | Jacoby Ellsbury | Jeff Samardzija |
18 | Brandon Phillips | Marco Estrada | Greg Bird | Josh Reddick | Jharel Cotton |
19 | Matt Bush | Marcus Stroman | Hernán Pérez | Jurickson Profar | Melky Cabrera |
20 | Tom Murphy | Eugenio Suárez | Jeanmar Gómez | Sonny Gray | Brad Brach |
21 | Matt Duffy | Asdrubal Cabrera | Héctor Rondón | Jedd Gyorko | Jerad Eickhoff |
22 | Kevin Pillar | Russell Martin | Iván Nova | Matt Wieters | Travis Shaw |
23 | Zack Cozart | Brad Hand | Cameron Maybin | Jeremy Jeffress | Steve Pearce |
24 | Drew Hutchison | Tyler Glasnow | Kevin Siegrist | Hunter Strickland | Mike Montgomery |
25 | Zach Davies | Mitch Haniger | Huston Street | Lucas Duda | Michael Lorenzen |
26 | Cody Bellinger | Joe Musgrove | Darren O'Day | Aaron Judge | Melvin Upton |
RD | Boyer | Albright | Del Don | Daugherty | Pianowski |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | José Altuve | Paul Goldschmidt | Manny Machado | Anthony Rizzo | Bryce Harper |
2 | Max Scherzer | Rougned Odor | Chris Sale | Corey Seager | Francisco Lindor |
3 | Ryan Braun | George Springer | Jonathan Villar | Jon Lester | A.J. Pollock |
4 | Johnny Cueto | Ian Desmond | Christian Yelich | Buster Posey | José Abreu |
5 | Kyle Seager | Carlos Carrasco | Jacob deGrom | Mark Melancon | Grégory Polanco |
6 | Jonathan Lucroy | Mark Trumbo | Hanley Ramírez | Andrew Benintendi | DJ LeMahieu |
7 | Roberto Osuna | Danny Duffy | Kelvin Herrera | José Ramírez | Anthony Rendón |
8 | Cody Allen | Jeurys Familia | Rich Hill | José Quintana | Adam Jones |
9 | Odubel Herrera | Addison Russell | Willson Contreras | Stephen Piscotty | Dellin Betances |
10 | Lance McCullers | Adam Ottavino | José Peraza | Rick Porcello | Shawn Kelley |
11 | Cam Bedrosian | Danny Salazar | Matt Harvey | Ben Zobrist | J.T. Realmuto |
12 | Aledmys Diaz | Jake Lamb | Jim Johnson | Addison Reed | Brandon Belt |
13 | Keon Broxton | John Lackey | Aaron Nola | Nomar Mazara | Víctor Martínez |
14 | Randal Grichuk | Marcus Semien | Yasiel Puig | Brad Miller | Brandon Crawford |
15 | Rajai Davis | Brandon Kintzler | Alex Cobb | Logan Forsythe | Kevin Kiermaier |
16 | Mike Napoli | Vince Velásquez | David Peralta | Jon Gray | Mike Moustakas |
17 | Matt Shoemaker | Travis Jankowski | Domingo Santana | Brian McCann | Luke Gregerson |
18 | Curtis Granderson | Kyle Barraclough | Ryan Schimpf | Andrew Toles | Sean Doolittle |
19 | Carlos Rodon | Mitch Moreland | Justin Bour | Daniel Hudson | Kolten Wong |
20 | Starlin Castro | Blake Snell | Michael Conforto | Lance Lynn | Brett Gardner |
21 | Blake Treinen | Tyler Thornburg | Jake Odorizzi | Alex Gordon | Welington Castillo |
22 | Carl Edwards | Andrew Susac | Shin-soo Choo | J.A. Happ | Yangervis Solarte |
23 | Danny Valencia | Tyler Saladino | Corey Dickerson | Brandon Moss | Joe Panik |
24 | Daniel Norris | Alcides Escobar | Denard Span | Scott Schebler | Yadier Molina |
25 | Ryan Dull | Koda Glover | Taijuan Walker | Adam Wainwright | Michael Saunders |
26 | Kennys Vargas | Steven Souza | Jayson Werth | Pablo Sandoval | Pedro Strop |
RD | Short | Liss | Gamble | Funston |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Trea Turner | Miguel Cabrera | Josh Donaldson | Charlie Blackmon |
2 | Noah Syndergaard | Madison Bumgarner | Carlos Correa | Xander Bogaerts |
3 | Edwin Encarnación | Kenley Jansen | Giancarlo Stanton | Trevor Story |
4 | Yoenis Céspedes | Stephen Strasburg | Justin Verlander | Aroldis Chapman |
5 | Gary Sánchez | Wil Myers | Andrew McCutchen | Jean Segura |
6 | Craig Kimbrel | Wade Davis | Khris Davis | Carlos Martínez |
7 | Masahiro Tanaka | Chris Davis | Álex Colomé | Eric Hosmer |
8 | Maikel Franco | Justin Turner | Cole Hamels | Miguel Sano |
9 | Lorenzo Cain | Jackie Bradley | Eduardo Núñez | Kenta Maeda |
10 | Sam Dyson | Gerrit Cole | Albert Pujols | A.J. Ramos |
11 | James Paxton | Yasmany Tomás | Jameson Taillon | Salvador Pérez |
12 | Kevin Gausman | Byron Buxton | Steven Matz | Ryon Healy |
13 | Elvis Andrus | Hunter Pence | Ender Inciarte | Matt Holliday |
14 | Carlos Gómez | Max Kepler | Brandon Maurer | Julio Urías |
15 | Neil Walker | Michael Brantley | Fernando Rodney | Carlos Beltrán |
16 | Tommy Joseph | Jason Heyward | Drew Smyly | Hunter Renfroe |
17 | Nick Castellanos | Dylan Bundy | Leonys Martín | Michael Pineda |
18 | Joe Ross | César Hernández | C.J. Cron | Devon Travis |
19 | Chris Owings | Didi Gregorius | Robbie Ray | Yoan Moncada |
20 | Santiago Casilla | Joaquín Benoit | Yuli Gurriel | Matt Strahm |
21 | Robert Gsellman | Josh Harrison | Stephen Vogt | Drew Pomeranz |
22 | Jorge Soler | Orlando Arcia | Tyler Skaggs | Will Harris |
23 | David Phelps | Gerardo Parra | Arodys Vizcaíno | Howie Kendrick |
24 | Anthony DeSclafani | Garrett Richards | Mallex Smith | Charlie Tilson |
25 | Mauricio Cabrera | Joe Nathan | Drew Storen | Roman Quinn |
26 | Alex Dickerson | Greg Holland | Jorge Polanco | Brad Ziegler |
My strategy going into the draft was to get at least two ace starting pitchers - the innings cap means we'll all have the same number of innings, so you have to make them count. Put differently, strikeouts are really strikeouts per inning in this format, as are wins. As such, an outing where your pitcher goes nine innings, strikes out five, gives up three runs and 10 baserunners hurts more than helps. You want quality starters on good teams, capable of getting a strikeout per inning, and they're not in large supply.
Moreover, closers are gold. In non-innings cap leagues, closers help you in saves and ratios, but hurt you in wins and strikeouts relative to starters. Even Aroldis Chapman can't compete with a modest strikeout starter like Dallas Keuchel. But in a league with a cap, Chapman's getting you 30 or 40 more strikeouts than innings pitched. That gives you a huge leg up in the category. Even average closers strike out a batter per inning and don't hurt you there. And if your closer gets four wins in 65 IP? That's roughly a 14-15 win pace over a starter's workload, so you're not losing ground there, either.
Accordingly, I took two closers, two starters and two hitters with my first six picks.
Four more strategy points here: (1) Because Yahoo has one fewer outfielder and one extra utility, corner infielders are slightly more valuable than in standard formats. In a standard, 5-OF, 1-U, 3-CI set-up, teams will roster 5.5 OF and 3.5 CIs, as the utility spot is rarely a catcher or middle infielder. In Yahoo, it'll be five and four. That means in a 14-team league, seven more CIs will be in active lineups and seven fewer OFs, moving the replacement value somewhat;
(2) Because it's a mixed league with daily moves and short benches, replacement value is fairly high. You can find plenty of 15 HR 70 RBI .265 types on waivers, so once you get to the mid-teen rounds, it's time to swing for the fences with the aim of dropping the bottom third of your roster without a second thought if the players don't pan out. That we switched to 14 teams this year after 12 last year cuts slightly against this, but being able to pick players up immediately rather than waiting six days with holes in your lineup reduces the costs of missing on your lottery tickets;
(3) Because it's a one-catcher league, there's almost always a viable full-time catcher on the waiver wire you can plug in. Accordingly, catchers should be drastically devalued relative to two-catcher leagues. (I didn't even bother drafting one as I'll pick one up during spring training); and
(4) Because it's a daily moves league with an innings cap, you have to stream pitchers with good matchups off the wire, and even decent pitchers with mediocre matchups should probably be benched (or dropped.) As such, while you need some elite pitching you don't need to fill all your pitching slots in the draft, and to the extent you do, many of them should go to relievers with high K rates who might get the chance to close.
Here's my Round by Round thought process:
1.12 Miguel Cabrera - If you're weak in batting average, you're in trouble because it's the hardest category to fix on the fly.
2.3 Madison Bumgarner - My first two picks are the same as in the Beat Chris Liss (BCL) NFBC league, and that's good because this is a 14-teamer, and that was a 12. I considered Max Scherzer here, but played it safe.
3.12 Kenley Jansen - He was the first closer off the board for reasons above. I considered taking Chapman on the way back, but Brandon Funston snagged him at the turn.
4.3 Stephen Strasburg - The strikeouts per inning are gold, even if he misses some time. I now had three of my first four picks from NFBC.
5.12 Will Myers - I'm going to be weak in steals in most leagues because I think people are overpaying for them. But Myers also hits for power, was a major prospect and seems to have figured it out. Moreover, getting your steals from a first baseman is an added bonus - you can always get 5-10 SBs from OF and MIs off the wire, but replacement value at 1B is zero.
6.3 Wade Davis - I'm a little nervous about his health, but the Cubs aren't idiots, and they let Aroldis Chapman go before dealing prospect Jorge Soler for him.
7.12 Chris Davis - This is why you draft Cabrera - to be able to roster 40 HRs in Round 7 without the batting average killing you.
8.3 Justin Turner - After Davis, I wanted a solid batting average bat, and Turner's raked for two and a half years.
9.12 Jackie Bradley - This was a mistake. I wanted Lorenzo Cain for the steals and average, but he went one pick before me. The next player in my queue was Eric Thames, but he's such a wild card I hesitated, looked up his Yahoo ADP, thought it might be a reach, that he'd last until the next turn. Then I was running out of time and grabbed a more ADP-appropriate player almost at random. It was a cowardly move, and while Bradley could easily earn this slot, you never want to let ADP dictate your pick unless you're sure the guy you want will come back. Bradley was great in the first half last year, collapsed in the second, but I don't think the late collapse is any more real than the early surge.
10.3 Gerrit Cole - Once I had decided Thames was too early, I didn't consider him here. Instead I went with a one-time ace whose season was derailed by elbow issues. We're now in the upside portion of the draft, and Cole has it.
11.12 Yasmany Tomas - He was a target for me as he's got major power without much batting average liability and plays in a great park. Of course, I missed out on Thames who Erickson snagged at 11.5.
12.3 Byron Buxton - I was light on speed, and as in the BCL, I took Buxton in the 12th round. I've had a lot of debates on Twitter about him and his spotty track record, but the truth is no one can know from past performance when and whether a player will take a leap in the future. The reason it's a "leap" is because it breaks from past performance. The stats are great for analyzing the past, and the past is certainly an indicator (however imperfect) of the future, but is far from dispositive, especially in the case of a young player with a huge pedigree and whose injuries cost him so much development time. The upside is beyond question, and that's why you pay for him even though there's a good chance he will fail. Moreover, a modest fail might be 15-30-.250 and a constant lineup slot due to his defense. But let's not kid ourselves, there's a chance of total failure too.
13.12 Hunter Pence - This is a good value, but it cost me Julio Urias who Funston took at the turn. Urias is more valuable than his ranking in this format because the per-inning numbers could be so good, and he's being docked for lack of volume. But on a pitching-early team, the productive bat made sense.
14.3Max Kepler - I thought about Yasiel Puig here. I had him in so many places last year, I'd hate to see him get it together for someone else. Again, I thought Puig might slip another round, and he probably would have but for Puig apologist Dalton Del Don. In any event, I like Kepler who's a prospect in his own right and produced for a stretch last year.
15.12 Michael Brantley - Deprived of one guy who killed me last year, I wouldn't be denied another. Part of the rationale was the two DL slots - if Brantley begins the season there, I can stash him and pick up another player, and part was simply the upside if he gets over the shoulder injury.
16.3 Jason Heyward - I didn't need any more OF, but Heyward is still only 27, gets in the lineup due to his defense and is tinkering with his swing. Seemed like a worthy gamble at this stage.
17.12 Dylan Bundy - This was way too early, but in Round 17, it doesn't matter. I didn't want to get snaked like I did on Thames, Urias and Puig. Bundy was once the best pitching prospect in baseball, he's added a pitcher, sitting at 94 this spring and dealing.
18.3 Cesar Hernandez - I don't get why he's available so late (also took him in BCL) Speedy MI with average and on-base skills. Maybe J.P. Crawford gets called up, and he's competing with Freddy Galvis for playing time, but in that case, Galvis might sit as Hernandez (.371 . OBP) can actually hit.
19.12 Didi Gregorius - I needed a SS, and the now 27-year-old Gregorius went 20-7-.276 last year and bats left handed in Yankee Stadium.
20.3 Joaquin Benoit - If Jeanmar Gomez isn't the closer (and he lost the job last year), why not Benoit? He's a veteran with experience in the role, and Hector Neris is more valuable as a set-up guy anyway.
21.12 Josh Harrison - I needed another MI with speed who won't hurt my average. And Harrison might even lead off.
22.3 Orlando Arcia - Another MI with some speed, Arcia didn't do much last year, but he's a good prospect, got the job, in a good park and is still only 22, i.e., a giant leap wouldn't be shocking.
23.12 Gerardo Parra - What if David Dahl's injury is serious? Parra went 15-15-.291 at sea level in 2015 before losing much of last year to an ankle injury.
24.3 Garrett Richards - He's throwing 97 again, albeit with no command.
25.12 Joe Nathan - the Nationals don't have an official closer, and Nathan's in camp. Maybe he's done, but if he shows anything, I think he's got a good chance to get the first crack. Managers love players who have done it before.
26.3 Greg Holland - If he's all the way back from 2015 Tommy John surgery, he'll take this job before long.
Roster By Position:
C
1B Miguel Cabrera
2B Cesar Hernandez
3B Justin Turner
SS Didi Gregorius
CI Will Myers
MI Josh Harrison
OF Jackie Bradley/Yasmany Tomas/Byron Buxton/Hunter Pence
U Chris Davis/Max Kepler
SP Madison Bumgarner/Stephen Strasburg/Gerrit Cole/Dylan Bundy/Garrett Richards
RP Kenley Jansen/Wade Davis/Joaquin Benoit/Joe Nathan/Greg Holland
B Michael Brantley/Jason Heyward/Orlando Arcia/Gerardo Parra
Overlap with BCL team: Cabrera, Bumgarner, Strasburg, Turner, Buxton, Brantley, Hernandez, Benoit, Parra, Holland.