I just wrapped up my first draft of the year, a 12-team, 5 x 5 NFBC Online draft with an overall component that pays $100K to the top team (out of about 2000.) Here are the results:
I picked from the 10th spot, and my strategy was to take Miguel Cabrera in the first round and 3-4 pitchers in the next four. I detoured slightly in Round 4 when Ryan Braun was surprisingly available, but came back with a closer, Mark Melancon, in Round 5.
My research on the NFBC contests indicated it's better to get at least two good starting pitchers in the first five rounds and to skip the crop that typically goes in Rounds 6-12. As you can see, I picked only hitters in Rounds 6-13.
Here's the round by round breakdown:
1.10 Miguel Cabrera: I have him around No. 5 overall. He's Anthony Rizzo plus 20 points of batting average.
2.3 Madison Bumgarner: I considered Max Scherzer and would have taken him but for his knuckle injury. It's probably nothing, but why take the risk when someone as solid and well-situated as Bumgarner is available?
3.10 Stephen Strasburg: I was set on a pitcher, especially when Francisco Lindor and Giancarlo Stanton went just ahead of me. Strasburg was my highest remaining one (I considered Jon Lester with Strasburg on the way back), but didn't want to risk of missing out on my target.
4.3 Ryan Braun: It turned out Lester made it back to me as did Johnny Cueto, but I couldn't pass up Ryan Braun who I view as a late second-round pick. I really wanted three starters in the first four rounds, but (1) you have to adapt when circumstances change, and (2) I hoped Carlos Carrasco would make it back to me in Round 5.
5.10 Mark Melancon: Not only did Carrasco not make it back, but the top tier closer run had all but ended. I like Melancon more than most - while he won't help in strikeouts, he's a low-risk option in a great, high-save, low-run scoring environment. Job security is paramount, and while anyone could implode, he's safer than the less tested (though much more dominant) Roberto Osuna, Edwin Diaz and Ken Giles.
6.3 Carlos Gonzalez: This was a bit of deference to the Steamer projections which have Gonzalez as the 19th overall player , at least when run through my formula. The 31 YO Gonzalez has logged 303 games over the last two seasons, during one of which he hit 40 HR and the other batted .298. Rounds 5-6 are always the toughest for me - you're making a decent-sized investment, so you need floor, but all the rock solid players are gone.
7.10 Andrew McCutchen: He had a terrible year, and his days of stealing more than 10 bases might be over. But this is a former MVP who turned 30 in October. It's unlikely he forgot how to hit.
8.3 Matt Carpenter: I was doing great, value-wise, so far, but had filled up three OF slots and was light on steals. But with Carpenter still available (and qualifying at 1B, 2B and 3B), there was no way I could pony up for a Jose Peraza type.
9.10 Adrian Beltre: I was now even lighter on steals, but there was no one to draft at this price except Lorenzo Cain and Adam Eaton, two modest base stealers with little power that would have clogged another outfield slot. I went with another old player, but at age 36 Beltre slashed .300/.358/.521 with 30 home runs last year. Basically he was a slightly better version of Anthony Rizzo if Rizzo happened to qualify at third base rather than first, and Rizzo's going in the first round. Is age 37 the cliff year for Beltre? Only if he gets hurt.
10.3 Adam Jones: This where I might have gotten greedy as Jones clogged an OF spot and cost me Cain who went before my pick in Round 11. Jones doesn't run anymore and probably won't help my average, but at 31 in that park, he should be good for 25-30 HR and commensurate RBI and runs. But now I was criminally light on steals, and also playing chicken in saves as even third- and four-tier closers were flying off the board.
11.10 Justin Turner: Once Cain was gone, I couldn't bring myself to take Odubel Herrera, and I liked the idea of using Turner as my corner and Carpenter as a middle infielder. Turner has raked for the last two and a half seasons and should figure prominently in a loaded lineup.
12.3 Byron Buxton: After 11 rounds of disciplined value-taking, it was time. Buxton is a risk, but he will also go 15-30 if he sticks, and has upside for a good deal more. I was still light in speed and gambling with saves, but this was a start. (Apparently, Rob Giese, Team 7, would have taken him two picks later.)
13.10 David Dahl: He hurt his back, otherwise he would have gone six rounds earlier, but as of now he's only expected to miss a couple weeks, and it seemed like a good gamble. Dahl also runs, and I was still light on speed. Moreover, scrubby closers like Sam Dyson were already off the board earlier in that round.
14.3 Carlos Rodon: Finally I dipped back into the starting pitchers. I like Rodon's finish to last year and his stuff, but I don't have any real preference between him and 10 other pitchers in that range. I just had to pick one of them.
15.10 Sonny Gray: I was ambivalent about him until I saw Jeff Zimmerman's velocity tracker. Gray is back up to 94.5 mph this spring, and that was good enough for me.
16.3 Cam Bedrosian: I played chicken long enough. Bedrosian has good skills, and Huston Street is out for at least a month. I considered backing Bedrosian up with Street in the late rounds, but opted against it. This is my No. 2 closer, and if he doesn't pan out, I'll have to scramble.
17.10 Drew Smyly: I needed another starter, and Smyly has been very good at times. The upside is there at least.
18.3 Troy Tulowitzki: I needed a shortstop, and Tulowitzki seemed like a good value at this point. It's funny how many former first round ADPs I have on this team (Cabrera, Braun, McCutchen, Gonzalez, Beltre, Jones, Tulowitzki.) It would dominate using 2012 stats. Incidentally, I considered Elvis Andrus instead for steals, and maybe given the structure of my team, I should have gone in that direction. Andrus went three picks later.
19.10 Logan Forsythe: Another value pick - a solid hitter in a good lineup, and I needed a middle infielder.
20.3 Jharel Cotton: I've heard some buzz about him. That's about it. I considered Adam Wainwright, who claims to have rediscovered his curveball, but felt I'd rather have the young guy at this stage of the draft. Wainwright went five picks later, so we'll see if that was a mistake.
21.10 Michael Brantley: He destroyed so many of my teams last year, and the truth was I didn't even like him. I took him because I was convinced (by a friend with expertise in the matter) that he'd fine once he returned in late April, and the discount was bigger than that. Now, he's still iffy for 2017, but he's taking batting practice and in Round 21, why not?
22.3 Jung Ho Kang: Apparently he's not going to jail, so this seemed like too good a price to pass up. I also could use him at UT, especially if Dahl isn't ready for Opening Day.
23.10 Cesar Hernandez: I was still light in speed, and Hernandez could fill a MI slot ahead of Forsythe if needed, or I could move Carpenter to a corner if another corner gets hurt.
24.3 Mike Montgomery: He's a good pitcher in the running for the Cubs fifth starter slot. Should he prevail, he'll have one of the league's best defenses behind him and plenty of run support.
25.10 Eduardo Rodriguez: Knee problems have derailed him, but he's a hard-throwing lefty who should get a shot, especially now that David Price is on the ropes.
26.3 Greg Holland: Adam Ottavino might have the Rockies closer job for now, but if Holland recovers fully from 2015 Tommy John, he could easily win it from him.
27. 10 Tony Wolters: I played chicken on catcher the entire draft and figured I'd nab the Rockies potential starter. Tom Murphy is the better hitter, but Wolters' glove might play, and in Coors, he'll hit enough.
28.3 Joaquin Benoit: I was shocked to see my target, Brewers catcher Jett Bandy, drafted two picks before me, so I pivoted to saves. If Jeanmar Gomez isn't the closer (and why should he be?) then why not Benoit, a veteran with some experience in the role?
29.10 Tyler Flowers: He's the starter in Atlanta, and what if the new park is better than we think? Moreover, Flowers was decent last year.
30.3 Gerardo Parra: If David Dahl's back injury turns out to be serious, Parra would start. Parra hit .291 with 14 homers and 14 steals at sea level in 2015. It's a nice insurance policy in Round 30.
All told, I'm pretty pleased with this draft, but I have risky saves, and I'm too light by about 40 steals. It's not hard to find a couple 25-steals players on waivers, but fourth outfielders who are steals-only punish you too much in runs and RBI to be worthwhile. It's quite a bit harder to find steals guys with full-time jobs, but I will need at least one along with Buxton staying healthy and keeping the job. I should be flush in HR, RBI and runs, so I might be able to weather one 400-AB 35-steal Jarrod Dyson type and make it work. But the places where I might have been greedy were Adam Jones over Lorenzo Cain and Tulowitzki over Andrus.
Full Roster By Position:
C: Tony Wolters/Tyler Flowers
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Matt Carpenter
3B: Adrian Beltre
SS: Troy Tulowitzki
CI: Justin Turner
MI: Logan Forsythe
OF: Ryan Braun/Carlos Gonzalez/Andrew McCutchen/Adam Jones/Byron Buxton
U: David Dahl/Michael Brantley/Jung Ho Kang/Gerardo Parra/Cesar Hernandez/
SP: Madison Bumgarner/Stephen Strasburg/Carlos Rodon/Sonny Gray/Drew Smyly/Jharel Cotton/Mike Montgomery/Eduardo Rodriguez
RP: Mark Melancon/Cam Bedrosian/Greg Holland/Joaquin Benoit