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Week 3 Observations

Every NFL Sunday in Europe is a full day before the games even start. I went to a farm within the Berlin city limits with Heather and Sasha to see some pigs, cows, lambs and chickens, pick some apples and harvest some potatoes to take home and cook. Here's a snapshot of the scene - think we were looking at the sheep:

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It was unseasonably hot, and after checking out the animals, knocking some underripe (but not bad) apples off a tree with a large stick and a half-assed attempt to dig up some potatoes (we mostly put some people had left behind in our bag for a pathetically small haul), we sat down at their biergarten for some food and drinks. There was an outdoor seating area and beyond that an open area with a guy singing kids songs in terrible English and a make-shift merry-go-round on which Sasha wanted to ride. Heather went over and seated her on a plastic horse. I was left at the table to order and checked my Twitter feed while I waited.

You know what's coming. I have no special connection to Jose Fernandez, and nothing original to say about him. There are a lot of good stories, tributes and expressions of grief all over the web, and you've probably read many of them already. It's just odd to read words on a screen, understand their meaning and then double-take and not understand their meaning for a few seconds before it once again sinks in. It was an unconfirmed report at the time I saw it - early in the morning  eastern time. Of course, I hoped it was false, but it was so bizarre and out of left field I kind of knew it was true. It's just not something someone would think to make up.

I mostly put it out of my mind. I'm at this ridiculous country fair/farm place, and Sasha's eating cotton candy for the first time in her life. We're in a foreign country. But it's a nagging queasy feeling that every time you notice it, you ask yourself what it's about, and you remember, "Oh yeah, Jose Fernandez died. WTF?"

That's really all I have on it. I didn't know the guy, I'm not a Marlins fan who watched all of his starts since he came up and I've only heard snippets of his backstory, mostly in the last 24 hours. I think the sick feeling is partly because if Jose Fernandez can be killed in a random boating accident, who can't be? We all ride in cars, boats, planes, trains and bicycles. This isn't some rock star who partied his ass off, smoked two packs a day and got cancer in his late-60s, tragic though that is in its own way. This is a 24-year old world-class athlete at the peak of his powers, on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. The team was looking at an innings limit to preserve his arm. That this could happen to this person underscores the precariousness of all of us and the people about whom we care most. But as I said, I mostly put it out of my mind, amidst the anxiety and energy of the upcoming NFL games. It was just there in the background, making the escape into all the action a little more manic than usual.

• I know of no good way to transition from Jose Fernandez's tragic death to Ben McAdoo's tragic incompetence (I know, I know, it's insensitive even to have the two in the same sentence, but segues were never my strength, nor would I ever be caught riding a Segway.)

• McAdoo gave his trio of top receivers a combined total of 21 targets. On those 21 targets, they gained 264 yards (12.6 YPT). He also gave 17 targets to his tight ends and running backs, two of which resulted in interceptions, including the one that ended the game, that amassed 86 yards (5.1 YPA). McAdoo plainly adheres to his West Coast offense, dink-and-dunk philosophy, irrespective of personnel, irrespective of opponent and obviously irrespective of the success or failure of particular plays during a given game. Only game flow - and by game flow, I mean when he's absolutely forced to take chances down the field - causes McAdoo to deviate, and what happens? His team finally makes big plays to its wide receivers with ease. McAdoo simply does not play to the strength of his team because he's too wedded to his offensive philosophy.

• McAdoo also failed to use his timeouts on defense in front of the two minute warning and was only bailed out when Jay Gruden elected to run on third down rather than try to pick up the first down and likely end the game.

• One of the frustrating things about the Giants in addition to their high-school-level coach bringing down a playoff-caliber roster is their beat writers either don't know how bad McAdoo is or for careerist reasons aren't willing to call him out. Check out theseaccounts of the game and see whether there's any mention of the play selection or awful clock management. Unfortunately media incentives have evolved over the last few decades. Desire for access has turned many beat writers more or less into public relations operatives rather than adversarial representatives of fans who want a winning product.

• Eli Manning was sharp all game until the final interception. On the first pick, Will Tye appeared to stop his route.

• Odell Beckham mostly had his way with Josh Norman, but McAdoo doesn't set out to get Beckham involved until it's absolutely necessary.

• Shane Vereen ran well, but he fumbled twice, and he also fumbled in Week 2. Orleans Darkwa ("The Dark Horse"), also ran well and caught a pass for nine yards. But Rashad Jennings should be back for Week 4 in any event.

• The Redskins split their targets four ways between DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed. Jackson is always going to win the per-target efficiency battle. He's the best big-play receiver since Randy Moss. Reed will get his red zone looks and TDs sooner or later.

• Buffalo-Arizona is why you take the home dog no one wants, even if you can't imagine it going your way. Someone must be betting the Bills (otherwise the line would have been much higher), and without Sammy Watkins against a Cardinals team that annihilated the Bucs the prior week, it's not the squares.

• That David Johnson went off in a game with the worst possible game flow is why he was the easy No. 1 RB on the board this year.

• I didn't watch much of this game, but is Carson Palmer okay? I know he assuaged some concerns last week, but Peyton Manning looked okay on occasion last year before it was clear he was done.

• Tyrod Taylor salvaged his day with 76 rushing yards and a TD, but he's not useable without Watkins.  LeSean McCoy seems healthy and useful at least.

• Trevor Siemian threw for 312 yards (8.9 YPA), four TDs and no picks in Cincinnati against what's ostensibly a good pass defense. He's already much better than 2015 Peyton Manning, and the Broncos are quite obviously a viable Super Bowl contender again.

• I benched Emmanuel Sanders for Kevin White yesterday. I wanted the upside! Of course, Sanders had just two TDs in his last 10.5 months (h/t Matthew Berry). This is why it's dangerous to draft RBs early instead of WR - when your mid-round receivers like Sanders get off to slow starts, you won't always be inclined to stick with them. Allen Robinson also got off to a slow start, but no one benched him in Week 3 when he finally went off. Receivers are much harder to time than backs.

• With Siemian looking like an NFL QB, Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are both back in play as reliable receivers - 20 of Siemian's 35 targets went to them.

• Jeremy Hill had a 50-yard TD run and scored another short one, but take away the long TD, and he was 16 carries for 47 yards. (Not that the long ones don't count, but he was not consistently finding room.)

• I had the Packers with two of my survivor entries and the Lions plus 7.5. This game could not have gone more perfectly with the outcome never in doubt even with the backdoor cover.

• Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense got well at home with Rodgers at 8.5 YPA, four TDs and no picks. Jordy Nelson finally looked like himself too with a great TD catch. Randall Cobb not so much. Of course, Rodgers attempted only 24 passes.

• Eddie Lacy's 17 for 103 was a nice sign, though he caught only one pass. Part of that was due to game flow. The good news is James Starks had only one carry.

• Matthew Stafford put up big numbers, largely in garbage time and mostly to Marvin Jones who had 200 yards and two TDs. Eric Ebron looks like the No. 2 option (he should get more TDs, as one was called back in Week 2.) Golden Tate has been a bit player so far.

• The Lions running game was bad, particularly Theo Riddick (10 carries for nine yards.)

• Derek Carr had another modest game (7.1 YPA, one TD, one INT). Michael Crabtree saw more targets than Amari Cooper again.

• DeAndre Washington is better than Latavius Murray - that should become a more even timeshare soon.

• The Titans don't throw down the field enough to have a credible offense. DeMarco Murray has been reliably good, but Tajae Sharp is not a No. 1 WR right now.

• Apparently Jack Del Rio nearly gifted this game to the Titans after punting on 4th-and-short from plus territory near the end of the game and enabling a final drive that would have tied the game but for a penalty. Del Rio had the guts to go for two against the Saints, but as is usually the case with these troglodytes, their good decisions are mostly dumb luck, as they don't have a grasp of basic probability theory.

• I have no words for Cody Parkey keeping the undeserving cowards who took the Dolphins alive in survivor. He actually missed three field goals that game, none of which were from 50-plus.

• Terrelle Pryor completed 3-of-5 passes for 35 yards, ran four times for 21 yards and a TD and caught 8-of-14 targets for 144 yards. That's essentially 23 "attempts" for a player who qualifies at wide receiver. His biggest problem was when he played quarterback, the team's best receiver was unavailable.  That will change when Josh Gordon comes back, though Josh McCown might be back shortly thereafter.

• Duke Johnson got more involved in the running game, but roles are still in flux in the offense.

• Kenyan Drake and Jay Ajayi played roughly to a draw, with Ajayi being lucky enough to get the overtime TD run. Expect a 50/50 split until further notice or Arian Foster returns.

• Jarvis Landry will get his targets no matter what, and with Adam Gase, further down the field than in the past. Ryan Tannehill's fantasy numbers were good, but he threw two picks, lost a fumble and should have lost the game to arguably the league's worst team.

• Avoid Denver's defense, but really avoid Minnesota's. Three picks and eight sacks, including a safety, of Cam Newton in his own building. For fantasy purposes, they added a punt return TD for good measure.

• Bizarre that Kelvin Benjamin after two dominant games saw only one target which he failed to bring in.

• Cameron Artis-Payne saw more work as a runner, Fozzy Whitaker as a receiver, and both were predictably useless. Jerick McKinnon got more carries, Matt Asiata and McKinnon one catch each, and like their Carolina counterparts, were both useless.

• It made little sense why the Vikings would give up a 1st and a 4th for Sam Bradford, but maybe they knew something we didn't. If you're a Super Bowl contender, having a competent rather than terrible QB is worth nearly any price. Incidentally, since the start of last year, the Vikings have been a spread-covering machine (16-3).

• Justin Tucker kicking a 54-yarder is like Steph Curry draining an open three from four feet beyond the arc. It's much easier than it should be.

• Every week a different player leads the Ravens in targets and receiving yards. This time it was grandpa's turn.

• Terrance West ran competently, but rookie Kenneth Dixon should still get a shot when he returns. Justin Forsett caught six passes, albeit for only 12 yards.

• Allen Robinson finally got his touchdowns, but 11 targets for 57 yards shows how badly the offense is still struggling. Blake Bortles was abysmal, and with a minute left and no timeouts, he was scrambling and buying time, but instead of getting rid of the ball, he took what amounted to a game-sealing sack. And Chris Ivory was of no help to the running game which was again non-existent.

• Marqise Lee saw another seven targets - he's a regular part of the offense now.

• Christine Michael will be a top-10 back if Thomas Rawls' injury were to linger. He could have had a bigger day but for being pulled in garbage time.

• Russell Wilson looked sharp before exiting with an MCL injury. He says he could have returned to the game had it not been a blowout, but we'll see what the MRI says.

• Doug Baldwin had another big game and is clearly the team's go-to receiver this year. Should he and Wilson stay healthy, he'll shatter his career-high in targets from last year.

• Jimmy Graham had a big game, proving to be an unlikely survivor of a patellar tendon tear (Victor Cruz is also doing well, but another year removed.) If Graham is anything close to his pre-injury self, and Wilson's injury proves to be minor, the Seahawks might be the best-rounded team in the NFL.

• Carlos Hyde did some damage in garbage time. There's nothing else to say about the 49ers offense.

• Jameis Winston had 405 yards, but it took him 58 throws to get there, i.e., only 7.1 YPA. The Bucs are short of weapons. After Mike Evans, slot man Adam Humphries saw a lot of work, but with Vincent Jackson looking old and irrelevant, and Austin Seferian Jenkins gone, there's no legitimate No. 2 weapon.

• Charles Sims played decently in his debut as the starting running back with six catches, 124 yards from scrimmage and a score.

• Cameron Brate caught two TDs but is not a threat to make plays down the field, i.e., he's mostly red-zone only.

•  Todd Gurley slugged his way to two scores, but it was tough going. Case Keenum made a couple long TD throws, but the offense has no rhythm.

• I bitch about bad beats quite a bit, so it's nice to see a lucky one bounce my way - the Colts had no business covering against the Chargers, but a long TD to T.Y. Hilton when Indy only needed a FG sealed it.

• It was hilarious how bad the announcers were in this game. After Indy went up four on the TD and went for two (and failed) to make it six, they kept harping on how big San Diego's earlier missed PAT was, thinking the Colts would only be up three for the final drive. But had the Colts been up three, they would not have gone for two and failed! They would have kicked a PAT to go up four anyway.

• T.Y. Hilton had his way with all-world cover corner Jason Verrett. Matched up one-on-one, Hilton spun him around a few times and caught a nice back shoulder throw from Andrew Luck. He finished with eight catches, 174 yards and a TD.

• Incidentally, I watched only part of this game, and while Luck's numbers were padded by the late Hilton score, he looked sharp to me. Luck is a polarizing player - the scouting types love him as does the mainstream media, but the advanced stats people think he's overrated. I'm with the squares here - put him with a better coach, in a better system, and he'd be one of the league's undisputed superstars.

• Melvin Gordon got another score, but 2.2 YPC against the Colts? And the Chargers were unable to put the game away behind Gordon. He did have four catches for 43 yards, but 25 of those were on a play where he ran up the sideline untouched. Again, I'm selling high even though he's the only game in town.

• For whatever reason, the Chargers didn't target Tyrell Williams at all in the first half, but he finished with six catches for 69 yards and led the team with nine targets. He's the team's best receiver.

• Hunter Henry had five catches for 75 yards, but lost the fumble that sealed the game.

• The Chiefs didn't have to do much with the opposing quarterback throwing six interceptions. Ryan Fitzpatrick got 4.3 YPA, to boot, and Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall combined for four catches.

• Spencer Ware averaged only 3.9 YPC, but that was heavily weighed down by what were essentially kneel-downs as the Chiefs looked to kill the clock with a huge lead.

• I was skeptical of Carson Wentz last week, but no more. His scramble to buy time and perfect throw on the move to a running Darren Sproles turned into a 73-yard score that broke the game open. He also attempted a deep throw to Dorial Green-Beckham up 34-3, a great sign for fantasy purposes. Wentz finished with 301 yards, 9.7 YPA and still hasn't thrown a pick this year.

• Perhaps more impressive was the Eagles defense that held the Steelers to three points and Ben Roethlisberger to 5.8 YPA. DeAngelo Williams was also bottled up for the first time this year.

• Of course, Antonio Brown still got his - 18 targets, 12 catches, 140 yards.

• The Eagles vowed to get Green-Beckham more involved, and while he got only four targets, no receiver saw much work given the game flow. Pick him up now as he has the chance to be a league-winner for you if he pops.

• Ryan Mathews saw only two carries for negative yardage, and it's unclear whether he's injured. In any event, Wendell Smallwood, and Kenjon Barner ran well, each scoring a TD.

It's a small sample, but I wonder whether Doug Pederson (and possibly Hue Jackson) aren't two of the better under-the-radar NFL coaches. As a Giants fan, I'd give anything for either one rather than the sub-moron we have.

• It was surprising to see Massey-Peabody have the Bears as their "Big Play." I realize they're going strictly by the numbers and not anything personnel related, but that line actually seemed low for a home game against a bad team down to its backup QB. Full disclosure, I took the Bears as a "the sharps must be on them because no square in his right mind would take this awful team," but I had it as a coin flip, and I didn't feel good about it. The game went exactly as you'd expect with Dallas running roughshod over the defense and throwing from hitter's counts on third down. Anyway, I think M-P is a valuable resource and respect their work quite a bit, but of all the games to have as a Big Play, that was a strange one. But I suppose it's just what their indicators (which are strong over time) told them. It's also easy to point things like this out after the fact, but had the Bears covered, and the game flow been surprisingly Chicago-favorable, I would have written it up t

• Ezekiel Elliott had 140 yards on the ground, but Jason Garrett trolled Elliott's owners with rushing TDs from Dak Prescott, Alfred Morris and Lance Dunbar.

• Dez Bryant salvaged a potentially terrible day with a late TD. Still, as Antonio Brown is to Odell Beckham, Beckham is to Bryant, i.e., as comparatively neglected as Beckham is, Bryant's lack of use (six targets) is even worse.

• Cole Beasley is Prescott's favorite target, it seems.

• Zach Miller is Brian Hoyer's favorite target, and that resulted in two TDs. The Bears receiving tree is thin.

Kevin White made a ridiculous one-handed catch, but he and the Bears offense still look very raw. Still he saw 14 targets, by far the most on the team.

 Jordan Howard ran well. He has good burst, but not much wiggle. That should still be enough to supplant Jeremy Langford, who left the game with an ankle injury.

 Streaming the games from Berlin via my laptop and Apple TV make following them on Twitter an annoying experience. Like watching the Giants on their final drive near midfield, and 100 people saying "Oh Eli!" before I've seen what happened.

•  I faded the Dolphins in Survivor this week, so it was a pretty brutal five-minute stretch when the Giants gave away the game and Parker missed the game-winning field goal. Nearly half my pools would have dropped out had Parkey not shanked it. 

I had to take a break from watching and used it to do my last week of Sunday night baseball free agent moves. I put in for some pitchers in AL Tout Wars, set my lineup for my home league and went to make a last move for an NFBC squad when I noticed Jose Fernandez's name on the roster.

Oh right. That happened. Damn.