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Week 1 Observations

Written by 
Chris Liss
Published on September 12, 2016

Watching the games from my apartment in Berlin, Germany without my usual home set-up (two TVs, Sunday Ticket) was better than I anticipated. The Game Pass package available in the EU for $200 euros (~$223) gives you access to everything, and my Apple TV let me display it on the large screen in the living room. On my laptop, I was able to split the screen into  four secondary games at once while the main one stayed on the big screen. What was especially cool is I could click on a game with live action to get audio every time  one of them went to commercial or simply drag in a different game into the four-box instead. It was actually much easier than changing channels on DirecTV. The only issues were having to toggle between the four-box and Twitter, and my stream being 30 seconds behind, so I was annoyingly seeing celebrations about plays I hadn't yet watched.

• It's amazing the Pats were able to go into Arizona without their two best players and win the game. Of course, they cheated again with Tom Brady who was supposed to be suspended wearing Jimmy Garoppolo's jersey and managing 8.0 YPA and no interceptions on the road against a tough pass defense. The Pats defense was also stout, bottling up David Johnson except for one long run (15 for 44 otherwise.) The Patriots spread the ball around too much for anyone to benefit, and this was without Rob Gronkowski. Julian Edelman's PPR day was salvaged only because he caught all seven of his targets, and Chris Hogan's because he caught a long TD. James White's 5-for-40 wasn't worth much, given he saw only one carry.

• Larry Fitzgerald  (8-81-2) isn't ready for assisted living just yet, and Michael Floyd saw seven targets, including some down the field. John Brown was an afterthought, but he'll have his games against weaker secondaries. Carson Palmer after a bad playoffs and shaky preseason looked more or less fine.

• The Giants coaching staff nearly gifted the Cowboys an opening week win for the second straight year, with Ben McAdoo punting up one point on 4th-and-1 from the Cowboys 37 with 1:12 left and Dallas having no timeouts and an all-world field goal kicker. The punt sailed through the end zone for a touchback, netting the Giants a meager 17 yards of field possession in exchange for a ~75-percent chance at locking up the win with a one-yard gain. The only reason this isn't a huge story is Terrance Williams returned the gift by not running out of bounds with nine seconds left at the Giants 40, already at the edge of Dan Bailey's range.

• McAdoo's failure to grasp basic NFL strategy extended also to his play calling with 24 runs and 28 passes, only eight of which went toward Odell Beckham who torched a hobbled Orlando Scandrick on one of his two downfield targets. Moreover, after a sequence of runs, McAdoo turned to the pass at 1st-and-goal from the three-yard line on first and second downs. Not only was he utterly predictably running on first down the entire game, the one time where the run is optimal (short-yardage on first down near the goal line), he passed! The Giants look like a decent team this year, but their coach is an albatross.

• The Giants offensive line held up pretty well and was able to open holes for Rashad Jennings in the fourth quarter. Keep in mind the Cowboys' top two pass rushers were suspended, and they weren't a great defense to begin with.

• The Giants failed to record a sack, but held Dak Prescott to 5.0 YPA and Ezekiel Elliott to 2.6 YPC. This was a solid performance against the league's best offensive line.

• Alfred Morris (7-for-35) actually looked like the more decisive and effective runner.

• Prescott was Mr. Dink and Dunk with 14 targets to Jason Witten and 12 to Cole Beasley. No wonder he had only 5.0 YPA. Dez Bryant had only one catch for eight yards, though he nearly hauled in a long touchdown that was overturned.

• Having the Seahawks in Survivor was fun.

• You could argue Seattle was a bad pick, based on how narrowly they escaped, but you could also argue you pick the team for which everything can go wrong (their mobile QB hobbled by a sprained ankle), and they can still win. Either way, it was uncomfortable, especially because I write the Survivor article for RotoWire, and I'd hate to have taken down so many people with me in Week 1.

• Looks like Doug Baldwin might be in for a big year. I wasn't a believer given his relatively tame target totals, lack of red-zone use and lack of 40-plus-yard catches, but he was Russell Wilson's only read in crunch time and caught 9-of-11 targets. Tyler Lockett is still a big-play weapon, but is more of a luxury when Wilson has time or buys it as plays break down. It might be a few weeks before the latter is possible given the way his ankle sprain hampered his mobility Sunday. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Wilson were forced to miss a game or two. 

• Christine Michael saw more work than Thomas Rawls against a game Miami defense, and neither stood out. Expect this timeshare to continue until one of them takes control of it.

• Arian Foster looked reasonably spry against a good defense. He's the clear workhorse, and he'll catch passes every game.

• Devonta Freeman is in trouble. I had downplayed the threat of Tevin Coleman this summer because Freeman was such a workhorse last year, particularly in the passing game, but Coleman made a great play on a ball thrown behind him and looked quicker, faster and more effective (five catches, 95 yards.) This is a timeshare at best, and Coleman could be the starter before long.

• Of course Julio Jones was limping around on the sidelines after an awkward tackle. He missed time in camp with two different ailments too. I'm sure he'll be fine for Week 2, but I faded him this year because I don't trust him.

• The Titans punted on 4th-and-2 from plus territory again. It doesn't matter who the coach is, the organization is broken. Andre Johnson's carcass got seven targets, resulting in 30 yards. Maybe Tajae Sharpe has a good year, but 11 targets for 76 yards is just volume. And don't get excited about DeMarco Murray's two TD catches. He might not catch that many the rest of the year.

• Adrian Peterson is 31, so while one bad game isn't dispositive, 2-3 more, and we could be looking at the cliff. Stefon Diggs is a leading candidate for a Year 2 breakout, despite a sub-optimal setup.

• The Saints beat the Raiders after Oakland failed to convert a 4th-and-5, but the refs called pass interference on an uncatchable ball and extended the game. Good for Jack Del Rio going for two and winning it rather than hoping to force overtime and being at the mercy of the coin flip. After the game, this exchange was pretty funny, and Del Rio happened to be correct:

• I'm still fading Derek Carr - remember this one-TD, 8.0 YPA was against the league's worst pass defense. The Raiders won because of a bad call and Jalen Richard breaking loose for a huge play. Latavius Murray was also unimpressive. Amari Cooper is the only Raider I'd be happy to own right now.

• Drew Brees went nuts as he always does at home against mediocre defenses. Willie Snead was the surprise, catching all nine targets for 172 yards and a score. Brandin Cooks is a top-five WR when the Saints are at home. It also looks like their tree could be smaller with Cooks, Snead and Thomas getting most of the work. I'd expect Coby Fleener to get more involved, but most of Drew Brees' 600-plus attempts will likely go to his top three wideouts.

• I'm not sure how the Chargers let the Chiefs (who are not built to play from behind) back in the game, but it's the Chargers, and Norv Turner's been gone for half a decade now. Spencer Ware had a decent day on the ground, but he made his money in the passing game as the team's leading receiver (7-for-129.) Jamaal Charles owners have more to worry about than goal-line vulturing when he returns:

• Melvin Gordon finally scored a TD, and he did it twice, though Danny Woodhead got more carries (16 to 14), averaged more YPC (5.6 to 4.1) and caught more passes by a factor of infinity (5 to 0.)

• Keenan Allen is likely out for the year with a torn ACL. Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, Antonio Gates and Woodhead should see a lot of targets.

• For all the 9/11-themed cleats and other symbolic patriotism on display in part to burnish the NFL's brand, here's an especially underrated hero from that period:

• Cruising through Revis Peninsula, A.J. Green had no problems getting around. And it was Brandon LaFell, not Tyler Boyd, who served as the team's No. 2 target. LaFell was a long shot a few years ago in New England when he beat out a bunch of candidates for the No. 2 WR job. Maybe it happens again this year in Cincy.

• Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard had roughly the same number of snaps, the difference being Bernard caught two passes and Hill scored a TD. That's probably the stoutest run defense they'll face all year, though.

• Matt Forte led the Jets in rushing and receiving. It's clear Bilal Powell is merely his backup.

• Robert Griffin took three sacks and is already hurt, requiring an MRI on his non-throwing shoulder. The numbers weren't terrible (7.3 YPA), one INT, 37 rushing yards, but he also did nothing to instill confidence he's a long-term solution. Josh McCown and Cody Kessler are likely to see action at some point this year. If you're an RGIII owner in a QB-flex league, you hope he keeps the job long enough to see what happens when Josh Gordon comes back.

• Carson Wentz looked better than Griffin, taking one fewer sack, not throwing a pick and connecting on two scores. For now, it looks like Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, Nelson Agholor and Darren Sproles make up the primary branches of their passing-game tree. Ryan Mathews, Josh Huff, Brent Celek and Dorial Green-Beckham got three targets between them.

• My Twitter timeline was filled with exclamations about the Packers being back, but I'm not sold. This was against Jacksonville, and Aaron Rodgers still posted a meager 5.9 YPA, including an amazing 29-yard TD throw while being sacked to Davante Adams. Jordy Nelson was woefully inefficient despite catching  a TD, and Randall Cobb most caught passes near the line of scrimmage aside from one 32-yarder.

• The Jaguars moved the ball more, but Allen Robinson was held to just 72 yards on 15 targets, several of which were in the end zone. He'll get his eventually. The Jaguars went for a lot of 4th-and-shorts, converting most. Gus Bradley's courage and probability-based play calling will only help.

• With Chris Ivory out, T.J. Yeldon got into the end zone, but it was a painful 39 yards on 21 carries.

• It's hard to say much about the Ravens-Bills game, except be glad you didn't watch it. Steve Smith did nothing on nine targets, and Mike Wallace looks like the No. 1 WR for now. Brett Perriman, who caught a 35-yard pass, is worth watching.

• So much for the Brock Osweiler hype this preseason. The matchup could not have been easier, and he managed 6.6 YPA. Lamar Miller ground out 106 yards and four catches, but it was nothing special, except for the volume.

• Kevin White caught 3-of-7 targets for 34 yards. It was not a good game, but the team has too much invested in him not to  keep trying.

• Andrew Luck will be a monster this year if he stays healthy. His receivers suffered from too much spreading of the wealth, particularly two TDs to backup TE Jack Doyle, but the points should be there for all of them. They're the Saints of the AFC, without the drastic home/road splits.

• Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah both got theirs, but keep in mind it was against the Colts. There probably won't be room for both most weeks. Eric Ebron had a nice day, catching all five of his targets, scoring a TD and proving he was healthy. Marvin Jones saw 10 targets, Golden Tate only seven in a shootout. This might be a spread-the-wealth situation with no true No. 1 option.

• BTW - this is my favorite kind of Twitter exchange: