Usually when I make mistakes on draft day, it's due to unfounded assumptions, some of which I'm usually not even aware I have. For example, it's well known Year 2 is often the year wide receivers break out, and accordingly I'm looking to have shares of relatively cheap options like Phillip Dorsett, Devin Funchess and Sammie Coates. But one player I've almost entirely overlooked is Nelson Agholor, the Eagles' first-round pick last year, and like those other three, also headed into Year 2.

Why until 10 minutes ago when it looked like Jordan Matthews might have suffered a serious injury (apparently he did not) did it not occur to me to target Agholor? There are a few reasons, but none of them are very good.

First, his offseason sexual assault allegation at a nightclub probably made me think he was likely to face a suspension or worse, and even though the charges were dropped, and there's no indication he'll face NFL discipline, my mind might already have been made up. Second, he's one of three receivers on a team that also has a viable tight end in Zach Ertz and two running backs who catch passes. While these are legitimate obstacles, Rueben Randle is hardly standing in the way of a first-round pick's breakout, and even if healthy, we don't know yet exactly who Matthews is. And it's not like Ertz has established himself as a go-to option, either. Bottom line, if the lightbulb were to go on for Agholor, he could easily be the team's top WR.

Finally, there's quarterback Sam Bradford and offensive coordinator Doug Pederson, formerly of the dink-and-dunk Chiefs. But Pederson was paired with Andy Reid and Alex Smith, and while Bradford isn't the second coming of Dan Marino, he is willing to take a shot down the field once in a while. Moreover, for a receiver to break out, you don't need to have Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Josh McCown/Mike Glennon, Brian Hoyer/Brandon Weeden/Jason Campbell have all generated massively productive wide receiving seasons. Bradford is competent enough, provided he stays healthy for once.

So I need to add Agholor to my list of Year 2 receivers who could take a major leap. But beyond Agholor specifically is the more important notion that we need to examine why we believe what we believe, and not simply take it at face value. I guarantee there are many other players about whom my notions would fall apart under scrutiny.