I'm reprising this exercise from last year because I think it's useful to identify potential breakouts and upside plays.
There are essentially four variables that determine a player's value: (1) Health; (2) Skills; (3) Team Context; and (4) Role. Of the four, (1) and (4) are most subject to dramatic change, so I've eliminated them for the purposes of these rankings.
In the first table, I assume every player were guaranteed 16 games. In the second, I've ranked the top-20 QB, RB, WR and TE irrespective of roles, i.e., assuming everyone had an equal number of basic opportunities. For QBs, that's 550 passing attempts, for RBs, that's 250 carries, for WRs and TEs, that's 130 targets:
Health-Neutral Rankings
Rank | QB | RB | WR | TE |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cam Newton | Le'Veon Bell | Antonio Brown | Rob Gronkowski |
2 | Aaron Rodgers | Todd Gurley | Odell Beckham | Jordan Reed |
3 | Andrew Luck | Jamaal Charles | Julio Jones | Greg Olsen |
4 | Russell Wilson | Mark Ingram | Allen Robinson | Tyler Eifert |
5 | Ben Roethlisberger | David Johnson | Sammy Watkins | Delanie Walker |
6 | Blake Bortles | Devonta Freeman | Alshon Jeffery | Travis Kelce |
7 | Drew Brees | Lamar Miller | Dez Bryant | Dwayne Allen |
8 | Carson Palmer | Ezekiel Elliot | A.J. Green | Ladarius Green |
9 | Tyrod Taylor | Thomas Rawls | DeAndre Hopkins | Jimmy Graham |
10 | Tom Brady | LeSean McCoy | Jordy Nelson | Coby Fleener |
11 | Kirk Cousins | Adrian Peterson | Mike Evans | Zach Ertz |
12 | Jameis Winston | C.J. Anderson | Brandin Cooks | Antonio Gates |
13 | Marcus Mariota | Eddie Lacy | Keenan Allen | Gary Barnidge |
14 | Eli Manning | Doug Martin | T.Y. Hilton | Eric Ebron |
15 | Philip Rivers | Gio Bernard | Amari Cooper | Jared Cook |
16 | Tony Romo | Arian Foster | Julian Edelman | Jordan Cameron |
17 | Andy Dalton | Ryan Mathews | Brandon Marshall | Julius Thomas |
18 | Ryan Tannehill | DeMarco Murray | Demaryius Thomas | Charles Clay |
19 | Matt Ryan | Carlos Hyde | Donte Moncrief | Zach Miller |
20 | Derek Carr | Jay Ajayi | DeVante Parker | Dennis Pitta |
A couple players see significant boosts: Sammy Watkins, Dez Bryant and Alshon Jeffery become first-round picks, and Jamaal Charles and Mark Ingram move to the top of the running back board. Arian Foster, who's likely to sign somewhere, also gets ranked. The quarterbacks and tight ends aren't affected as much, but Tyrod Taylor, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Tyler Eifert, Dwayne Allen and Jimmy Graham see small gains in the rankings
Let's take a look at the Opportunity-Neutral Ranks. These eliminate not only health (you can't have opportunities without it), but also the hard-to-predict whims of coaches and coordinators:
Opportunity-Neutral Rankings
Rank | QB | RB | WR | TE |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Russell Wilson | Le'Veon Bell | Odell Beckham | Rob Gronkowski |
2 | Cam Newton | David Johnson | Allen Robinson | Jordan Reed |
3 | Aaron Rodgers | Jamaal Charles | Dez Bryant | Travis Kelce |
4 | Tyrod Taylor | Mark Ingram | Antonio Brown | Dwayne Allen |
5 | Andrew Luck | Todd Gurley | Sammy Watkins | Ladarius Green |
6 | Marcus Mariota | Lamar Miller | Alshon Jeffery | Jimmy Graham |
7 | Jameis Winston | Devonta Freeman | Jordy Nelson | Greg Olsen |
8 | Ben Roethlisberger | Ezekiel Elliot | A.J. Green | Martellus Bennett |
9 | Tom Brady | C.J. Anderson | Julio Jones | Tyler Eifert |
10 | Carson Palmer | Eddie Lacy | T.Y. Hilton | Jared Cook |
11 | Blake Bortles | LeSean McCoy | Mike Evans | Antonio Gates |
12 | Tony Romo | Gio Bernard | Brandin Cooks | Coby Fleener |
13 | Drew Brees | Charles Sims | Michael Floyd | Zach Ertz |
14 | Robert Griffin | Thomas Rawls | John Brown | Eric Ebron |
15 | Kirk Cousins | Arian Foster | DeVante Parker | Jordan Cameron |
16 | Andy Dalton | Adrian Peterson | Donte Moncrief | Julius Thomas |
17 | Eli Manning | Duke Johnson | Tyler Lockett | Gary Barnidge |
18 | Alex Smith | Matt Forte | Doug Baldwin | Delanie Walker |
19 | Ryan Tannehill | Karlos Williams | Tavon Austin | Charles Clay |
20 | Philip Rivers | Rashad Jennings | Josh Gordon | Dennis Pitta |
These changes are more dramatic. Tyrod Taylor is my No. 4 QB because if he saw 550 attempts, he'd be a monster, given his rushing ability. Even RGIII clocks in at No. 14 because he'd rush for 700 yards, and he'd never see 550 attempts unless he were somewhat competent.
I nearly ranked David Johnson - whose biggest risk is sharing carries - ahead of Le'Veon Bell, but Bell is so good and also on a great offense, I held off. Charles and Ingram get bumped up again, but I also moved up Gio Bernard and Charles Sims. Should they see 250 caries, they'd be massive given all the receptions. I didn't add Danny Woodhead or Theo Riddick types because I don't think they'd ever see that kind of workload.
At WR, Michael Floyd, John Brown, Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin and Josh Gordon make appearances. The first four are efficient producers in great offenses that spread it around, while Gordon getting that many targets presumes a re-instatement, of course.
At tight end, Travis Kelce, Martellus Bennett, Graham, Jared Cook and Allen get bumped way up.
In real life, of course, the health and opportunity variables matter, and we don't want to ignore them entirely. But both are not only highly subject to change, they're also hard to predict, so it's worthwhile to focus more intently on skills and team context.