On Saturday, April 2 at the Bellagio in Las Vegas, I drafted my $125K grand prize, NFBC Main Event team. The Main Event consists of 30 15-team leagues, the members of which compete for both league prizes and the overall title. Because a substantial portion of your entry fee goes toward the overall prizes, you must draft not only with an eye on winning your individual league, but also the entire contest. There's no trading (for obvious reasons) so you need to have a team with both upside and balance, i.e., you can't afford to tank a category and expect to do well in the overall.
Here are the results (click to enlarge):
Last year I drew the second pick, started with Clayton Kershaw and finished 12th overall, one spot out of the overall money. This year I drew the first pick and briefly toyed with the idea of drafting Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, but decided Kershaw is more valuable than both given he's one of six or seven starting pitchers as opposed to 14 starting hitters. Moreover, Kershaw's projected ERA and WHIP are such outliers and for such a significant portion of your team's total innings, he moves the needle more than any current hitter. (Steamer projects Kershaw for a 2.09 ERA and the next lowest starting pitcher's is 2.72 (Max Scherzer.)
The problem with taking Kershaw over Trout or Harper is at picks 30 and 31, there are many quality starting pitchers, but not so many quality hitters. And after A.J. Pollock's injury Friday, there was one fewer hitter likely to fall to me. Based on NFBC ADPs and some online Main Event draft results, it looked like there were three worthwhile hitters that might fall: Edwin Encarnacion, J.D. Martinez and/or Charlie Blackmon. I was set to take Kershaw, one pitcher and one of those three hitters. The reason I didn't go two hitters like last year is I believe the second round pitchers are more valuable, and you're giving up too much by passing on two of them for two hitters. Moreover, ideally you'd draft two aces, and in the NFBC, there was no chance one was coming back to me in Round 4.
I also didn't want to go Kershaw and two pitchers because even though that would have been the best value proposition, it would leave me too unbalanced in a no-trade league with an overall prize. So I was hoping one of those three hitters fell to me. If they didn't, it would have been a tough call between going three pitchers (and figuring out how to get enough hitting - and saves) or reaching deeper for a hitter like Carlos Gomez or Justin Upton.
Fortunately, two of the three fell (Blackmon and Martinez) but so did Jose Bautista. It was a tough call, but power was up again last year, so you need more of it. While Martinez is younger and safer than Bautista, I like Bautista's home park and track record of being an elite power bat. I also nabbed Dallas Keuchel, my favorite pitcher after Kershaw, Scherzer and Chris Sale. To get an idea of why I'm so high on Keuchel, read this and this.
As I mentioned, I wanted to get two aces up front. My reasoning is twofold: (1) Starting pitching is more plentiful these days, so the bar to compete in the four categories is higher; and (2) Aces are more reliable than ever these days, while pitching is volatile generally. As a result, aces earn their cost more reliably than mid-tier starters, and lower tier starters (and players on the free agent wire) can be unpredictably good. But the middle tier starters are volatile in both directions, and on balance give you the worst return on investment. So the plan was to get at least two aces, spend most of my middle-round picks on hitting and fill in the back of my roster with cheap pitchers whose volatility provides upside, but who could also be cut without conscience. Moreover, while it's nearly impossible to find an ace on the waiver wire, useful pitching comes into the pool quite often.
With the two aces and one big bat, I was targeting Yasiel Puig (in my opinion a second or third-round player) and a closer at the 4/5 turn. Picking at the front of the draft is less than ideal for closers as the elite ones usually go at the end of the fifth/beginning of the sixth, so you're either reaching a round early at 5.1 or left with less than elite options at 6.15. I decided to reach because (1) you need to have saves in this no-trade/overall prize format, and (2) I felt the hitters from Rounds 4-8 were somewhat fungible. Why not get the best closer if the hitter at 6/7 is just as good as the one at 4/5?
Consequently, I took Kenley Jansen, the first closer off the board. I expected the rest of the top closers to be gone by 6/7, so the plan was to take Michael Brantley and Adrian Beltre there, but so many players in whom I had no interest (like Tyson Ross, Adrian Gonzalez, Anthony Rendon and Freddie Freeman) came off the board, and Mark Melancon surprisingly fell to the turn. I snapped him up along with Beltre as third base drops off later in the draft. Besides, I had Brantley in so many other leagues already.
For 8/9, I was hoping to land David Ortiz and maybe Randal Grichuk, but Brantley fell all the way back to me, and so did Prince Fielder. Now I had a decent power and batting average base.
At the 10/11 turn, I took my third starter, Drew Smyly. The point of buying two aces was to avoiding spending a lot of money on starting pitchers from Rounds 6-13, so maybe I should have waited a round or two. I also took Gerardo Parra who I can use mostly at home and get a big boost in batting average when he's in my lineup. The NFBC allows you to activate and reserve hitters for the upcoming weekend on Fridays, making Coors Field players especially valuable because you can sub them out when they're on the road.
At 12/13 I was hoping Byung-Ho Park and Devin Mesoraco would be there, and they were. I was still short in steals, and I wanted Trevor Story, but (1) I thought he might last; (2) there were so many speedy middle infielders left; (3) I wanted to lock down more power; and (4) first base and catcher were getting thin. Of course, Story went in the next round,.
At 14/15, I was hoping to get Wei-Yen Chen as my fourth starter, but he went three picks before me, so I took my second catcher, another Coors product, in Nick Hundley. If I find a viable third catcher on the waiver wire, I'll platoon Hundley too. I also took Marcus Semien, a nice power/speed option from the middle infield.
I was hoping to get a fourth starter at 16/17, but Jamie Garcia went in the middle of the 15th, and I thought I could wait on Ian Kennedy. I still needed to fill my corner infield slot, and on impulse I swung for the fences in 16/17 with Ben Paulsen and Pedro Alvarez. Again, I plan a home/road platoon with Paulsen's average in Coors and Alvarez's power when the Rockies are on the road.
At this point, I had a ton of power and plenty of runs, RBI and average, but I was weak in speed, and still had only three starting pitchers. I was all set to take Ian Kennedy, but he went one pick before me at the end of Round 18, so I took Socrates Brito and Alexei Ramirez to address my speed deficit.
At this point, even mediocre pitching was flying off the board, and while I was executing my plan to invest in aces only and not spend much on mid-level pitchers, I was pushing the strategy to its breaking point. I took Alex Wood in the 20th before our 10-minute break to get lunch.
During the break, I thought I would open the 21st round with Cory Spangenberg because I had yet to draft a second baseman, and I was still below average in speed. But I had a feeling he might make it back to me in the next round, and it was too safe a pick. The player with upside was Jarrod Dyson who's ostensibly the starter in Kansas City, and if so, could steal 50 bases when he gets back from his oblique injury. But when Alex Gordon got hurt for a few months last year, Dyson split time in the outfield with Paulo Orlando, so if the Royals weren't sold on him then as a corner outfielder, why would they be sold now? And a 3-4 times per week starter - even if he steals 40 bags - is unplayable in a mixed league because you're giving up too much in runs, RBI and HR. But if Dyson does start - and indications are he will - then he's Billy Hamilton with better hitting skills. So I took Dyson.
At 22/23, I got Spangenberg anyway, and took Marco Estrada as my No. 5 starter. Estrada has no upside, but I needed someone to log innings, and he'll be a good source of WHIP and should get enough run support for wins.
At 24/25, I rounded out my rotation with Cody Anderson (throwing harder, strong spring, won a rotation spot) and Chris Bassitt (showed flashes last year, pitches in Oakland.)
At 26/27, I took Javier Baez - big power/speed upside, and he should qualify everywhere - and Matt Shoemaker (he has a job in a good park.)
At 28/29 I took Jose Ramirez and Chris Coghlan - upside from Ramirez, with multiple eligibility, and another outfielder with a job. With the last pick in the draft, I took Tony Cingrani because he strikes me as exactly the type of failed starter to turn into an elite closer. And the Reds don't have much standing in his way should they go that route.
In the end, I felt like the draft went better than I could have expected. While the back end of my rotation is awfully thin, that was somewhat by design and in line with the research I've done. I waited on middle infield and steals, and I feel like I got enough of both. I have two top closers, two ace starters and plenty of pop and batting average. I also can take advantage of the NFBC rules with all the Coors Field players. I am taking on some risk with players coming back from injuries (Brantley, Mesoraco, Puig) and older players (Beltre, Bautista), but as of right now, none is expected to miss significant time.
Here's the team by position:
C Devin Mesoraco, Nick Hundley
1B Byung-Ho Park
2B Cory Spangenberg
3B Adrian Beltre
SS Marcus Semien
CI Pedro Alvarez/Ben Paulsen
MI Alexei Ramirez
OF Jose Bautista, Yasiel Puig, Michael Brantley, Gerardo Parra, Socrates Brito
U Prince Fielder
P Kershaw, Keuchel, Smyly, Wood, Estrada, Anderson, Bassitt, Jansen, Melancon
B Baez, Ramirez, Dyson, Coghlan, Shoemaker, Cingrani