Yesterday, I got into an epic Twitter battle with Paul Sporer over whether Julio Teheran is worth drafting and whether he has more upside in 2016 than Kevin Gausman. Scott Pianowski, Tim Heaney, Joe Sheehan and Derek Carty, among others, joined the fray. I've tried to recreate it as fairly and comprehensively as possible below, though keep in mind there were so many overlapping threads, I had to leave some of it out.
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@Jeff_Erickson was never really dominant even when he was doing well. Bad run support this year. Not a big K rate. Where's upside?— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@Jeff_Erickson Pedigree, success, skills, age. where ISN'T the upside?
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@Jeff_Erickson little wins/K upside, and ERA and WHIP requires more smoke and mirrors. Pass
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@Jeff_Erickson You admittedly don't like FIP, so you can't just use it to benefit you here.
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@Jeff_Erickson I don't care about FIP per se, but at least show me a guy whose missing bats or inducing ground balls or something
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@Jeff_Erickson He is missing bats. 3 yrs of 10% SwStr. 12th in SwStr since '13
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@Jeff_Erickson why so few punchouts then?
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@Jeff_Erickson Still learning? I mean, he's 25 for cryin out loud.
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@Jeff_Erickson anything's possible. But he's been a full time SP for a while, doesn't throw hard, never got punchouts, on bad team
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@Jeff_Erickson I can't accept "doesn't throw hard" and "never got punchouts". Neither is actually true.
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@Jeff_Erickson 91 mph for a righty is not hard, punchouts modest.
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@Jeff_Erickson Sat 92. You're making him out to be Fiers. https://t.co/drGtXpHWDM
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@Jeff_Erickson no, I never said he was a soft-tosser. Only that he didn't throw "hard". You're moving goal posts
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@Jeff_Erickson I'm not. You said he didn't throw hard. He does. 92 is still hard even if it's not 95
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@Jeff_Erickson 92 for a righty is not hard. (We have 91.3 as his avg)
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@Jeff_Erickson I love Gausman, but how can you really justify him over Teheran? What has he shown to deserve that?
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@Jeff_Erickson Stuff. We can all imagine Gausman becoming an ace.
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@Jeff_Erickson This feels like you haven't watched a lot of Teheran if you don't think he has good stuff.
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@Chris_Liss@Jeff_Erickson Gausman definitely has skills, but a lot depends on price difference between him and Teheran.
— Tim Heaney (@Tim_Heaney) March 16, 2016
@Tim_Heaney@sporer@Jeff_Erickson in a 12-team mixed, I take Gausman SU w/o a second thought
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@Tim_Heaney@Jeff_Erickson LOL
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@Tim_Heaney@Jeff_Erickson let's put some money on this. $20 if either is a top-20 starter at year's end.
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@Tim_Heaney@Jeff_Erickson No let's match em straight up. If you're that confident in Gaus, let's just do 1 v. 1 for $20
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@Tim_Heaney@Jeff_Erickson no, in Round 18 where I drafted, it's about upside only in 12-team. I can drop if KG fails
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@Tim_Heaney@Jeff_Erickson Again, love Gaus, but wtf has he done to deserve that kinda hype?
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@Tim_Heaney@Jeff_Erickson no one thinks KG is a sure thing. But the ceiling is there unlike for Teheran.
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss How is his ceiling higher, though? That just doesn't make sense
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer if you don't agree, you should make the bet. Seems obvious to me; throws very hard, 103:29 K:BB in 112 IP, good pen, run supoort
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss Literally the only thing he does better than Teheran is throw harder. That's it.
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss Career high of 113 IP.
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer 156 IP in 2014, 134 last year. Should pitch 180 this year.
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss Not in the majors. 113 most in MLB.
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer right, but innings are innings in terms of what he can do this year
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@sporer C, not sure you're taking into account how badly the Orioles have screwed up Gausman.
— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) March 16, 2016
@joe_sheehan@sporer no one arguing he can't fail. Point is in Rd 18 of mixed draft, you look for what could go right. KG > JT on that front
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@joe_sheehan@sporer Teheran's resume has 2013-14 on it. The NL East is such a softer landing. Even upside only, I gotta go JT.
— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) March 16, 2016
@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan@sporer NL east not that soft anymore if you pitch for Braves. Fences in in FLA too.
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@joe_sheehan@sporer How many in-division Gausman starts can you ever feel safe about?
— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) March 16, 2016
@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan@sporer almost none. But if the light bulb goes on, that won't matter
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@joe_sheehan@sporer And if the lightbulb goes on, maybe he posts a season that that Teheran has done twice already.
— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) March 16, 2016
@scott_pianowski@Chris_Liss@joe_sheehan Scott needed one tweet to say what I tried to say in 30.
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan@sporer maybe more Ks. And Teheran can't go back in time and get run support.
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@joe_sheehan@sporer Run support is nice, but it's rather buried on the list of stuff we should be looking for.
— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) March 16, 2016
@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan@sporer if you don't care about wins, and the Ks aren't there what are you hoping for w/ Teheran?
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan I think you're excluding the possibility for Ks prematurely. Again, 12th in SwStr% since '13
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan if you think JT has major K skills, you have a case. Still take guy who throws 95 and K'd 103 in 112
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan Gausman has 7.5 K9 as SP for career
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan I would look at last year as more predictive than his rookie season vs. MLB pitching
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan ok he had an 8.1 as SP... Teheran was at 7.7 in his "bad" yr. Not a meaningful difference.
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan ha ha - you were warned in advance
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@sporer and @Chris_Liss talking Teheran/Gausman for an hour wasn't quite on the level of Kanye vs. Wiz, but it was entertaining nonetheless
— Evan (@EasyEv3) March 16, 2016
@sporer@Chris_Liss@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan JT gets as many whiffs w/ his slider as Tyson Ross. JT has the pedigree & still learning
— Adam Miller (@ajmills100) March 16, 2016
@sporer@Chris_Liss@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan he passes the eye test. Think its location and sequencing holding him back. Esp vs LHB
— Adam Miller (@ajmills100) March 16, 2016
@ajmills100@sporer@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan location, sequencing, delivery, command, that's it. Otherwise, he's awesome.
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@ajmills100@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan speaking of awesome, where can I get 113 of mid-4.00s from an SP/RP?! Rare commodity!
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@ajmills100@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan or I forgot, we were drafting last year's stats rather than 2016 performance. My bad
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@ajmills100@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan Last yr's stats are your only case against Teheran!
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer@ajmills100@scott_pianowski@joe_sheehan no, his good years were not supported by peripherals, either. Heyward/Simmons gone
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss The Heyward/Simmons thing is first viable thing you've said against Teheran.
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@sporer no it goes along with the smoke and mirrors of his good years. Wasn't pitching at the level of ERA/WHIP.
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss I think you're greatly underselling him w/this smoke 'n mirrors stuff.
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
And just to make sure this gets into the Tweet-stream: @sporer: in summary, I'd rather move to Tehran than roster Teheran.
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss and if your case was half as good as that joke, you might've convinced us. But the line is v funny.
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) March 16, 2016
@Chris_Liss@MikeGianella@sporer Yeah I just noticed there's been a huge discussion. I'll stay out, but will say Teheran = super overrated
— Derek Carty (@DerekCarty) March 16, 2016
way to stay out: https://t.co/pwAv3FT7eu
— Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) March 16, 2016