The RotoWire Blog has been retired.

These archives exist as a way for people to continue to view the content that had been posted on the blog over the years.

Articles will no longer be posted here, but you can view new fantasy articles from our writers on the main site.

Steamer Values vs. NFBC Auction Prices (Pitching)

Last week, I ran the Steamer projections through my dollar-value formula and generated hitting and pitching prices, respectively. Today, with the benefit of some early NFBC auction prices (the average of three auctions), we can compare the algorithmically-generated values with the market-based ones.

Before we get to the table, a couple caveats are in order: (1) My values are flawed in that they don't reflect the market's perception of closers, i.e., I have them priced much lower than they'd go in any auction or draft. There are a few reasons for this, but one is my formula doesn't take category balance into consideration. For example, if a player were projected for 5,000 stolen bases and zero homers, the formula would tell you to max bid on him because he's so valuable. But you'd win steals by a uselessly huge margin and finish last everywhere else if you did that. As such, it probably overcounts raw production and undercounts the contributions of 30 players who are uniquely situated to give you a particular category you cannot acquire anywhere else; (2) Because I have closers lower, my starting pitchers will occupy a greater portion of the overall pitching budget and therefore be priced slightly higher; (3) My formula is based on Steamer's static projections, whereas the NFBC players are able to price in other variables, e.g., a pitcher projected for 150 innings due to missed starts will have other pitchers occupying his slot when he's out; and (4) the distribution of Steamer's necessarily conservative projected stats will not match the more extreme year-end, real-life production of actual players. While some NFBC buyers are working off projections, others are probably paying for prospective breakouts and avoiding potential collapses to mirror real-life outcomes.

For those reasons, the dollar values aren't a fair 1:1 comparison, but the disparities among starting pitchers between Steamer and NFBC auction buyers are still instructive, for they show either (1) exceptions to the algorithmic rules; or (2) the market's blind spots.

Below I've sorted the players by difference between Steamer prices (based on my formula) and NFBC ones:

PitcherWERASVIPSOWHIPSteamer $NFBC $Diff
1Michael Pineda123.3801761581.1215.139.06.1
2Yu Darvish133.4501922111.1915.569.75.9
3Masahiro Tanaka133.301971801.1417.6612.05.7
4Wei-Yin Chen123.4101951611.1812.47.05.4
5Chris Sale152.8202102561.0334.9931.33.7
6Rick Porcello123.8101901481.255.151.73.5
7Clay Buchholz113.6501671431.245.141.73.5
1Clayton Kershaw172.0802172680.9547.8344.73.2
2Kyle Hendricks113.501661391.217.124.03.1
3John Lackey123.6801931641.219.346.33.0
4Jason Hammel103.7601571441.25.893.02.9
5Will Smith32.942765841.1541.72.3
6Hisashi Iwakuma113.4301681371.1610.088.02.1
7Jeff Samardzija123.4501951641.1713.0311.02.0
8David Price162.9602152191.0829.6927.72.0
9Andrew Cashner103.7301851611.264.032.31.7
10Max Scherzer152.7102122531.0236.2635.30.9
11Ian Kennedy113.8501851641.264.533.70.9
12Scott Kazmir113.5901741581.218.147.30.8
13Anibal Sanchez103.8801671421.252.722.00.7
14Andrew Miller42.4965911.024.023.30.7
15Jon Lester143.1602042021.1321.6721.00.7
16Corey Kluber143.0102112231.0827.6627.00.7
17Francisco Liriano123.3201851921.2311.4411.00.4
18Mike Fiers103.7701591481.234.584.30.2
19Carter Capps42.521565891.064.494.30.2
20Jake Peavy93.7901531151.26-0.040.0
21Jose Quintana123.7102001711.238.468.7-0.2
22Josh Tomlin73.80124991.2-0.35-0.4
23Jesse Chavez93.8901401221.27-0.37-0.4
24Phil Hughes114.201981331.251.432.0-0.6
25J.A. Happ103.9601551321.280.251.0-0.8
26Jeremy Hellickson94.1801791481.28-0.84-0.8
27Collin McHugh123.7901911611.237.348.3-1.0
28Yordano Ventura113.5101751631.256.547.7-1.1
29Bartolo Colon73.830123871.2-1.23-1.2
30Jason Grilli32.891355641.13-1.25-1.3
31Drew Smyly103.3301511461.1989.3-1.3
32Taijuan Walker113.6801841721.228.239.7-1.4
33Kevin Gausman103.8601611411.262.213.7-1.5
34Brett Anderson103.5801601141.32-1.56-1.6
35Patrick Corbin93.5101511331.214.646.3-1.7
36Jake Odorizzi113.6501831661.227.979.7-1.7
37Anthony DeSclafani104.0201881541.271.613.3-1.7
38Mat Latos94.0101591261.29-1.76-1.8
39Koji Uehara42.94365661.1-1.8-1.8
40John Lamb73.8101261211.27-1.81-1.8
41James Shields113.6702031921.248.5210.3-1.8
42David Hernandez33.582865671.230.442.3-1.9
43Julio Teheran103.8501931701.273.415.3-1.9
44Jose Fernandez122.7701812141.0724.7226.7-1.9
45Stephen Strasburg132.9401852101.0724.8827.0-2.1
46Mike Foltynewicz73.8811371371.3-2.14-2.1
47Aaron Nola93.8601671401.242.364.7-2.3
48Daniel Hudson33.191265691.19-2.32-2.3
49Derek Holland104.0201621381.3-0.751.7-2.4
50Madison Bumgarner142.7902092151.0728.8131.3-2.5
51Raisel Iglesias103.5701751711.28.811.3-2.5
52Sergio Romo32.81265661.1-2.72-2.7
53Jake McGee42.74765741.10.133.0-2.9
54C.J. Wilson104.0401781461.34-2.97-3.0
55Justin Verlander123.8101951611.265.368.3-3.0
56Sean Doolittle32.873065701.124.667.7-3.0
57Hunter Strickland32.66355601.08-3.02-3.0
58J.J. Hoover33.812865631.32-2.11.0-3.1
59Tyson Ross113.3801942031.2410.5513.7-3.2
60Yusmeiro Petit74.020119971.25-3.16-3.2
61Carlos Carrasco133.0401882021.1121.6925.0-3.3
62Hector Santiago94.0401431201.32-3.39-3.4
63Homer Bailey73.9201251001.27-3.5-3.5
64Johnny Cueto133.1502071801.1617.5821.3-3.8
65Gio Gonzalez113.7401701601.32.556.3-3.8
66Wade Miley10401751331.33-2.961.0-4.0
67Robbie Ray73.9201181161.31-3.96-4.0
68Fernando Rodney33.492465661.28-1.632.3-4.0
69Pedro Strop43.08265731.2-3.97-4.0
70Shawn Kelley33.16565711.19-4.06-4.1
71Liam Hendriks32.94255541.08-4.07-4.1
72Felix Hernandez133.1802082021.1519.5723.7-4.1
73Erasmo Ramirez83.9601351031.28-3.11.0-4.1
74Andrew Heaney83.8901301021.27-2.451.7-4.1
75Darren O'Day33.27365681.15-4.12-4.1
76Zack Greinke133.0702091961.1221.8626.0-4.1
77Jonathan Gray94.2401601471.35-4.47-4.5
78Tony Cingrani33.23665751.23-4.49-4.5
79Hyun-Jin Ryu63.41094791.19-1.832.7-4.5
80Matt Moore73.7901181051.29-3.521-4.5
81Joakim Soria33.24665611.19-4.56-4.6
82CC Sabathia84.1301411131.29-3.581-4.6
83Roberto Osuna43.221665721.160.415.0-4.6
84Chris Hatcher33.19265691.17-4.63-4.6
85Brett Cecil32.91255641.15-4.64-4.6
86Matt Cain73.940130971.29-4.65-4.7
87Rubby de la Rosa84.1301401171.32-4.68-4.7
88Brad Ziegler33.422365441.35-4.7-4.7
89Nate Karns74.0701281151.31-4.71-4.7
90Nathan Eovaldi93.9901501151.3-2.742.0-4.7
91Yimi Garcia33.04155611.12-4.74-4.7
92Tyler Clippard33.721465621.27-4.78-4.8
93Tony Watson33.11265611.16-4.8-4.8
94Jerad Eickhoff63.9901221081.29-4.83-4.8
95Kris Medlen83.990130891.3-4.89-4.9
96Martin Perez104.0301721211.35-4.9-4.9
97Alex Wood93.8401431111.3-2.332.7-5.0
98Trevor May43.48173711.21-5.05-5.1
99Chris Heston53.41081691.24-5.06-5.1
100Eduardo Rodriguez93.8201391131.3-2.073.0-5.1
101Kevin Siegrist33.14365761.23-5.1-5.1
102Jordan Zimmermann123.8702001481.236.1811.3-5.2
103Jimmy Nelson104.2601881641.34-3.172.0-5.2
104Jumbo Diaz33.2355601.16-5.2-5.2
105Dellin Betances32.55155781.06-1.93.3-5.2
106Mike Leake113.9802011351.33-2.632.7-5.3
107Matt Shoemaker53.77080641.21-5.33-5.3
108Ubaldo Jimenez104.2201811571.36-4.351-5.4
109Jake Arrieta152.9502082191.1225.6231.0-5.4
110Brandon Maurer43.65483761.26-5.38-5.4
111Tanner Roark84.1401421001.31-5.4-5.4
112Luke Gregerson33.31365591.18-5.41-5.4
113Fernando Salas33.29355531.14-5.41-5.4
114Ryan Madson33.37665601.22-5.47-5.5
115Justin Grimm33.04155631.18-5.69-5.7
116Brandon Finnegan63.7501161151.32-4.731.0-5.7
117Jeff Locke94.0101481131.36-5.81-5.8
118Marcus Stroman133.6902011671.257.8513.7-5.8
119Zach McAllister33.25255551.16-5.86-5.9
120Robbie Erlin53.810103831.27-5.86-5.9
121Oliver Perez33.11155641.19-5.9-5.9
122Mike Morin33.19255531.17-6.09-6.1
123Alex Colome43.55173641.23-6.1-6.1
124Brad Boxberger33.142865751.192.528.7-6.1
125Travis Wood43.37063621.22-6.16-6.2
126Charlie Morton84.0201511151.35-6.2-6.2
127Jesse Hahn83.9601321021.33-5.291-6.3
128Josh Fields33.25155611.19-6.29-6.3
129Mike Dunn33.16255621.22-6.37-6.4
130Chris Archer123.2401982071.1716.9523.3-6.4
131Joe Smith33.28465551.23-6.4-6.4
132Jacob deGrom133.1702032091.1321.1527.7-6.5
133Josh Johnson53.88082691.26-6.54-6.5
134Jordan Walden33.29255611.22-6.61-6.6
135Matt Harvey133.0902032061.123.3630.0-6.6
136Chris Withrow33.27255651.24-6.68-6.7
137Hansel Robles33.34155591.2-6.72-6.7
138Santiago Casilla33.293365621.251.538.3-6.8
139Danny Duffy73.930117901.34-6.79-6.8
140Addison Reed33.55265641.23-6.81-6.8
141Noah Syndergaard113.1401761931.1118.1625.0-6.8
142Evan Scribner23.11145461.09-6.84-6.8
143Antonio Bastardo33.35255641.24-6.86-6.9
144Dan Straily43.65062581.22-6.87-6.9
145Danny Farquhar33.31355531.22-6.88-6.9
146Charlie Furbush33.37255551.21-6.93-6.9
147Carson Smith33.04255601.2-5.971-7.0
148Kelvin Herrera33.27155561.21-7-7.0
149Junichi Tazawa33.31155511.19-7.02-7.0
150Justin Wilson33.44555551.26-7.1-7.1
151Adam Wainwright123.5202031621.2110.1917.3-7.1
152Silvino Bracho23.03145511.14-7.16-7.2
153Kevin Quackenbush23.61955541.26-7.16-7.2
154Joe Kelly53.73081701.3-7.23-7.2
155Steve Cishek33.862765571.31-2.634.7-7.3
156Joaquin Benoit33.41965631.21-4.313.0-7.3
157Jeremy Jeffress33.54665621.3-7.31-7.3
158Joe Ross83.9201291081.29-34.3-7.3
159Colin Rea74.1801371111.35-7.35-7.4
160Shaun Marcum64.170109841.31-7.37-7.4
161Drew Hutchison54.1081711.28-7.38-7.4
162Drew Storen33.372265661.19-0.077.3-7.4
163Rich Hill103.9701811761.35-1.416.0-7.4
164Garrett Richards123.5401961691.276.5514.0-7.5
165Tony Zych33.41155521.21-7.45-7.5
166Fernando Rodriguez33.46255571.24-7.46-7.5
167Mark Lowe33.64265621.25-7.5-7.5
168Trevor Bauer84.1801401281.35-5.512.0-7.5
169Blake Treinen33.13155521.24-7.61-7.6
170Jon Niese94.0601651051.35-6.661-7.7
171Brian Matusz33.52255551.24-7.67-7.7
172Nate Jones23.1145531.18-7.7-7.7
173Steven Matz93.5901491451.243.6211.3-7.7
174Chad Qualls33.57465551.27-7.72-7.7
175Dallas Keuchel143.0402121821.216.6124.3-7.7
176Zack Wheeler43.7065641.28-7.8-7.8
177Danny Salazar113.4301731801.1712.4920.3-7.8
178Tyler Lyons33.04058571.11-4.93.0-7.9
179Pedro Baez23.17045481.15-7.93-7.9
180Carlos Rodon114.0301801881.35-0.018.0-8.0
181Randall Delgado33.56255531.25-8.03-8.0
182Jake Diekman33.49255601.29-8.21-8.2
183Arquimedes Caminero33.46155551.26-8.22-8.2
184Luke Hochevar33.54155511.24-8.23-8.2
185Dylan Bundy54.11094801.32-8.25-8.3
186Casey Fien33.62255451.23-8.27-8.3
187Sam Dyson33.56365571.29-8.27-8.3
188Zach Duke33.67465651.32-8.3-8.3
189Kevin Jepsen33.68465611.31-8.36-8.4
190Luis Severino103.8601611431.281.299.7-8.4
191Chris Bassitt64.10112891.35-8.4-8.4
192Brad Brach33.6155581.27-8.4-8.4
193Shawn Armstrong23.21145531.22-8.41-8.4
194Arodys Vizcaino33.191365751.21-2.096.3-8.4
195Cole Hamels133.7402091911.2310.5519.0-8.5
196Lance McCullers113.8201701751.33.1811.7-8.5
197George Kontos33.53155441.23-8.49-8.5
198Will Harris33.61155541.26-8.49-8.5
199Zach Putnam33.77355571.29-8.51-8.5
200Jonathan Broxton33.6255521.27-8.51-8.5
201Tommy Milone54.1092691.31-8.58-8.6
202Chase Anderson43.99073601.28-8.62-8.6
203Glen Perkins33.223265641.182.9811.7-8.7
204Shelby Miller104.0901871551.32-1.77.0-8.7
205Roenis Elias84.2501291021.37-7.821.0-8.8
206Jaime Garcia73.390116941.24-1.167.7-8.9
207Joe Blanton23.01035341.12-8.86-8.9
208Vidal Nuno23.4044401.16-8.89-8.9
209Adam Warren23.08040391.17-8.94-8.9
210Bryan Shaw33.85465531.3-8.94-8.9
211Edwin Jackson43.88172581.31-8.98-9.0
212Justin Miller33.83255551.29-8.99-9.0
213Josh Osich23.2145461.23-9-9.0
214Jon Edwards23.55255651.3-9-9.0
215Tyler Skaggs33.51047421.24-9.14-9.1
216Josh Collmenter44.07274491.29-9.19-9.2
217Franklin Morales33.92665511.33-9.27-9.3
218Tommy Hunter23.43145411.21-9.28-9.3
219Trevor Cahill33.54155511.3-9.31-9.3
220Chasen Shreve33.61155551.31-9.33-9.3
221Xavier Cedeno23.26145441.24-9.34-9.3
222Nick Vincent23.29040421.2-9.34-9.3
223Tony Sipp23.3040421.21-9.48-9.5
224Juan Nicasio23.31045441.23-9.52-9.5
225Drew Pomeranz23.08044461.19-8.591-9.6
226Aaron Loup23.26045421.23-9.6-9.6
227Luis Garcia33.63465601.37-9.62-9.6
228Jeff Manship33.79255461.3-9.7-9.7
229Aroldis Chapman42.2328651011.039.9219.7-9.7
230Blake Wood23.5145511.28-9.75-9.8
231David Phelps54.09092681.35-9.82-9.8
232Cory Rasmus23.23035371.21-9.88-9.9
233Jose Alvarez23.47145381.24-9.96-10.0
234Carlos Villanueva23.63145401.24-10.01-10.0
235Carlos Torres23.57145411.25-10.03-10.0
236Alex Meyer44.06067661.36-10.03-10.0
237J.P. Howell33.62155471.32-10.03-10.0
238Sean Gilmartin23.4040371.22-10.04-10.0
239Keone Kela23.48045481.27-10.04-10.0
240Alex Cobb33.53048411.23-9.061.0-10.1
241Pat Neshek23.71045401.22-10.08-10.1
242Kenley Jansen42.443565840.9911.2521.3-10.1
243Michael Tonkin23.57145421.26-10.11-10.1
244Gerrit Cole133.2702041961.1617.8728.0-10.1
245Shawn Tolleson33.63365631.251.0911.3-10.2
246Zach Britton42.513465711.146.8317.3-10.5
247Jonathan Papelbon33.613165571.220.7811.3-10.6
248Trevor Rosenthal42.853265801.156.1116.7-10.6
249Carlos Martinez103.4801591571.255.2716.0-10.7
250Hector Rondon43.143465651.184.5815.3-10.8
251Jason Motte34.421765531.37-7.83.0-10.8
252Brandon McCarthy23.2029261.12-9.891-10.9
253Jose Berrios43.99065561.29-8.992.3-11.3
254Corey Knebel23.27145531.23-8.633.0-11.6
255David Robertson42.972865801.115.6717.3-11.7
256Cody Allen42.813165801.126.5418.3-11.8
257Mark Melancon32.833565571.164.4117.0-12.6
258Michael Wacha113.701731531.255.0618.0-12.9
259Jeurys Familia33.143465681.213.2816.3-13.1
260Tyler Glasnow33.82055561.33-10.183.0-13.2
261A.J. Ramos33.331965731.25-1.6512.0-13.7
262Craig Kimbrel42.633465861.098.6722.3-13.7
263Francisco Rodriguez33.793265581.250.1914.0-13.8
264Huston Street33.723065551.25-0.4413.7-14.1
265Ken Giles33.33465731.213.3418.3-15.0
266Wade Davis42.743265721.126.4122.0-15.6
267Sonny Gray123.6702081741.294.8621.0-16.1

Sonny Gray is the biggest outlier at -$16.1 as a starting pitcher. You can see Gray is predicted for significant regression in ERA (3.67) and WHIP (1.29.) Why would that be? Because Gray isn't a big strikeout pitcher, and he's a ground baller. With more balls in play, you give up more hits, and that's especially so when those balls are predominantly on the ground. Throw in improving but hardly masterful control, and Gray profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Put differently, Steamer is unconvinced Gray's two seasons of sub-.285 BABIP are sustainable from a pitcher that makes a living on balls-in-play on the ground. If his BABIP regresses to .310 or whatever we'd expect from a GB pitcher, Steamer is likely to be correct.

The NFBC owners (through three auctions) disagree. Gray has never had a BABIP above .293 in the majors, an ERA above 3.08 or a WHIP above 1.19. He's thrown nearly 500 innings, and instead of regressing in 2015, he got better.

So who's right? Steamer's probably right generally, but the NFBC owners are betting there's something different about Gray in particular. What might that be besides the unlikely results?

For starters, according to Fangraphs, Gray yielded the fourth lowest percentage of line drives. While ground balls more often result in hits than fly balls, line drives are by far the most damaging form of contact to one's BABIP. Moreover, Gray also had the 11th lowest percentage of hard-hit balls in the league. (He was only 45th in soft contact percentage and third overall in medium contact.) The question is whether Gray's ability to avoid hard contact (rather than generate weak contact) is a repeatable skill. If it is, Gray will likely prove to be an exception, and the NFBC auction buyers will get their money's worth. If not, Steamer's prediction is likely to carry the day. Of course, if Gray loses velocity, learns a new pitch or sees substantial changes in the defense behind him, we're looking a different situation altogether.

Steamer is also lukewarm on Gerrit Cole, giving him a 3.17 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. We could go through the indicators to figure out why that might be and then the counterargument, but in the interest of economy, I'll leave that to you. The point is he's another player the algorithm does not like as much as the market. Other laggers: Cole Hamels, Dallas Keuchel and Adam Wainwright.

On the flip side, Steamer thinks Michael Pineda, Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Chris Sale were underpriced. Pineda had a BABIP of .343 and wound up with a 4.37 ERA and 1.23 WHIP despite a 156:21 K:BB ratio in 160 innings. And he gave up 21 homers despite a 1.86:1 GB/FB ratio. For 2016, Steamer projects a 3.38 ERA and 1.12 WHIP for him, more in line with his peripherals than his results. Health concerns, diminished velocity from his prospect days, a tough division and home park are probably why the NFBC players were more cautious.