(Can Byung Ho Park follow the lead of Jung Ho Kang and make a successful transition to MLB in Year 1?)

Back in February, I reminded the world that I am a novice when it comes to analyzing swing mechanics in a meaningful way. This particular instance featured video of Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang taking batting practice. (Proof) As it turns out, Dan Farnsworth of FanGraphs completely nailed it with regards to Kang in his piece around that time.

I will try to do better this time, and leave the mechanics to Professor Farnsworth.

<sarcasm>With a robust sample size of one position player (Kang) making the transition from the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) to the majors, we are well equipped to project a set of 2016 expectations for Park on the same day that he signed his first MLB contract.</sarcasm>

The Twins signed Park to a four-year deal that includes a team option for the 2020 season. The terms of the contract are as follows courtesy of St. Paul Pioneer Press Twins scribe Mike Berardino:

#MNTwins announce Park breakdown: 2016: $2,75M 2017: $2.75M 2018: $3.0M 2019: $3.0M 2020 (club option): $6.5M/$500K buyout.

— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) December 1, 2015

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, the Twins intend to make Park their primary DH once he's ready to handle big league pitching, though he has expressed a preference to play the field. Given his age, it is more than reasonable to expect him to avoid a stint in the minors and find a place in the lineup as the DH on Opening Day.

Since our only league-based comp for Park is Kang, let's take a look at a few things.

Contract Terms & KBO Results 

Kang signed a four-year, $11M deal with the Pirates in January. His contract includes a $5.5M team option for a fifth year. Financially speaking, the deal the Twins signed with Park is nearly identical. Kang was signed following an age-27 campaign in the KBO that featured a career-high 40 homers, along with a .356/.459/.739 line in 117 games for the Nexen Heroes. Park's contract follows an age-28 season in the KBO (also with Nexen) that includes a .343/.436/.714 line, 53 HR, 146 RBI, and 10 SB.

Park's 2015 season followed a 52-homer campaign in 2014 (.303/.433/.686), and a 37-homer campaign in 2013 (.318/.437/.602), so there is a longer track record of elite production than there was upon Kang's arrival. (Reference: B-R pages for Park and Kang)

There were questions as to how Kang's bat would translate (again, he was the first position player from the KBO to make the transition to MLB), and he wasn't considered a lock to be a proficient defender at shortstop either.

While reviewing a handful of different scouting reports on Park, there has been nothing to suggest that he is Wilin Rosario with a glove on his hand.

Even with a blindfold on, Kang's contract seemed like a good $11M gamble for the Pirates to take, and if the 2015 results are any indication, the Pirates could receive more than 10 times the value of the contract in WAR over the life of the deal.

Playing Time

Joe Mauer still has $69M left over the final three years of his $184M deal, and while his defense has graded out poorly in each of the last two seasons, the Twins seemingly hope to avoid having a $23M DH for the next three years toting a .270/.350/.375 line to the plate.

The idea that Miguel Sano will make a successful conversion to the outfield is probably a stretch, and the most likely scenario to line up Mauer, Sano, and Park for the corner-infield and DH spots requires a Trevor Plouffe trade. If (when) that goes down, Sano should serve as the regular third baseman, leaving Mauer and Park to shuffle between the first base and DH spots as desired.

For now, I am operating under the assumption that Park will have a reasonably clear path to 500 at-bats, but that number falls if Plouffe remains in tow come April and the rest of the corner-infield and DH options are healthy.

The Market & Other Numbers

Without any knowledge of the rest of the panel, Park checked in at 222nd and 268th overall for the two contributors that ranked him in the RotoWire Roundtable Rankings released in mid-November.

In terms of first-base tiers, Park would be lumped in with the likes of these players if those rankings end up reflecting the draft market this winter and spring:

• Chris Colabello -- .321/.367/.520 with 15 homers in just 360 PAs, but he's already 32
• Ryan Zimmerman -- 2014-15 health grade is an F, but will the move to first base push him back toward the 140-game range?
• Pedro Alvarez -- Falls considerably if he fails to land in a place with a clear path to everyday playing time. He's ideally suited to DH for an AL club (Baltimore?).
• Justin Bour -- Arguably the most stable player of this bunch with added RBI potential if Giancarlo Stanton is healthy.
• Greg Bird -- Tex isn't going anywhere, but Tex also has a more checkered injury history than Zimmerman.
• Matt Adams --  A complete mystery following an injury plagued 2015 that featured a .240/.280/.377 line over 60 games.

For what it's worth, Park was selected in the 17th round (outside the top-225 overall) in a 15-team mock draft I participated in a few weeks back.

If everything were perfectly linear (it's not), we could estimate Park's home-run output this way.

Kang hit 40 homers in 501 plate appearances during his final season in Korea (that boils down to one homer in every 12.5 trips to the plate). Last season for the Pirates, he homered 15 times in 467 plate appearances (one homer in every 31.1 trips to the plate).

31.1/12.5 = 2.48x as many plate appearances per home run with the move to MLB from KBO.

Park hit 53 homers in 622 plate appearances in Korea in 2015 (one homer in every 11.7 PA).

If he were to experience the exact same power output adjustment as Kang (again, this is crude and almost certainly useless, albeit fun to calculate) while getting 500 plate appearances, he would hit 17 home runs (one in every 29 plate appearances). If he somehow pushed 650 plate appearances (Mauer had 666 in 2015), the homer output would increase to 22.

Fortunately, they are different players, and the longer track record of top-level power suggests that Park might provide something closer to 25 home runs in 2016 if he's playing approximately five times per week, with 30 or even 35 seemingly being in reach *if* he's a true everyday fixture in the lineup.

Rather than try to project a batting average out of thin air, let's instead consider the 2015 batting average contributions of the first basemen in the aforementioned tier.

Colabello (.321) is the outlier, while Zimmerman (.249), Alvarez (.243), Bour (.262), Bird (.261), and Adams (.240) are within 22 points of each other. Let's aim conservatively and give Park a median average from the bottom five of that group and say that he has to hit .249 in Year 1 to hold his own in that category with the pack.

Lineup placement will go a long way in determining his RBI and run output, and while the Twins may start him off as low as seventh in the order, it is not unreasonable to think that he could quickly settle in as the No. 5 hitter if he holds his own out of the gate.

Consider that the Twins' No. 5 hitters posted a combined .252/.3o7/.426 (.734 OPS) line with 22 homers, 78 runs and 82 RBI in 2015.

Summary

For those who prefer tidy projections, reverse engineering the numbers based on his early draft position would lead you to a .250 hitter with 25 homers, 160 Runs + RBI (split 75/85?) and a handful of steals.

On paper, he's looking like 2015 Trevor Plouffe without the third-base eligibility, and Plouffe was worth $14 in 15-team mixed leagues last season according to the RotoWire Auction Values Earned tool.

Of course, Park's raw power potential adds an extra level of intrigue, and the very early price indicators point to room for profit if he can acclimate quickly.

Assorted Links of Interest

• Park bat flips from MLB Cut4 (sadly, he's not planning on bringing this aspect of his game to Minnesota)
• Great write-up on Park from Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs
• John Sickels of MinorLeagueBall.com (write-up includes a video of a 522 ft home run)

Follow me on Twitter @DerekVanRiper.