Training camps are opening around the NFL this week, which means fantasy drafts are being scheduled and more importantly for this exercise -- mocked. I will be your ADP guru on the newly redesigned RotoWire blog as the 2014 season approaches. Every Tuesday and Friday we will look at trends from both mocks and real drafts as the numbers roll in. Let's start at the top and look at top 50 PPR data from National Fantasy Football Championships (thanks to our friends at STATS).
Positional Breakdown
QB: 3 (6%)
RB: 20 (40%)
WR: 24 (48%)
TE: 3 (6%)
Where Are the Workhorses?
Fantasy continues to mimic reality with respect to the running back position being devalued. This was the second consecutive year that no running back was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Sure, a running back likely will go first in most fantasy drafts, but the position is getting less and less top heavy. NFL offenses are throwing the ball more than ever and two-thirds of the league has some sort of committee in place. It shows in the early ADP data, too. After Eddie Lacy (8.4 ADP), five receivers, TE Jimmy Graham (9.2) and QB Peyton Manning (11.4) are going higher than the next running back, Montee Ball (16.0).
Breakout Candidates
Speaking of Montee Ball, there is a strong contingent of unproven players in the top 50 expected to take advantage of new opportunities. Knowshon Moreno is in Miami now, making the Denver job Ball's to lose. He couldn't seize the opportunity in 2013, but the second-year back's ADP of 16 suggests fantasy owners have faith he's next in the long line of runners to find success behind Peyton Manning. Andre Ellington (32.6) is another sophomore running back in line to get starter's touches for the first time. With his prowess as a receiver, Ellington, who is sandwiched between big-name veterans Andre Johnson (31.6) and Rob Gronkowski (33), figures to be especially valuable in PPR formats. Four-year veteran Toby Gerhart moved to Jacksonville for his shot to step out from Adrian Peterson's shadow. If he can sustain the 4.7 yards per carry he achieved in Minnesota with a full workload, Gerhart's 50.4 ADP will be a bargain. The only problem is he now runs behind a Jaguars offensive line that ranked last in run blocking a year ago.
Here is the top 50.
Rank | Player | Avg Pick |
---|---|---|
1 | LeSean McCoy (RB, Phi) | 1.4 |
2 | Jamaal Charles (RB, KC) | 2.4 |
3 | Calvin Johnson (WR, Det) | 3.8 |
4 | Matt Forte (RB, Chi) | 4.2 |
5 | Adrian Peterson (RB, Min) | 4.8 |
6 | Demaryius Thomas (WR, Den) | 6.6 |
7 | Dez Bryant (WR, Dal) | 8.4 |
8 | Eddie Lacy (RB, GB) | 8.4 |
9 | Jimmy Graham (TE, NO) | 9.2 |
10 | A.J. Green (WR, Cin) | 10.2 |
11 | Brandon Marshall (WR, Chi) | 11.0 |
12 | Peyton Manning (QB, Den) | 11.4 |
13 | Julio Jones (WR, Atl) | 13.8 |
14 | Jordy Nelson (WR, GB) | 15.4 |
15 | Alshon Jeffery (WR, Chi) | 15.6 |
16 | Montee Ball (RB, Den) | 16.0 |
17 | DeMarco Murray (RB, Dal) | 17.0 |
18 | Antonio Brown (WR, Pit) | 17.8 |
19 | Arian Foster (RB, Hou) | 18.6 |
20 | Randall Cobb (WR, GB) | 20.6 |
21 | Le'Veon Bell (RB, Pit) | 22.2 |
22 | Marshawn Lynch (RB, Sea) | 23.6 |
23 | Drew Brees (QB, NO) | 23.8 |
24 | Giovani Bernard (RB, Cin) | 24.8 |
25 | Julius Thomas (TE, Den) | 25.6 |
26 | Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB) | 27.2 |
27 | Doug Martin (RB, TB) | 27.4 |
28 | Keenan Allen (WR, SD) | 28.6 |
29 | C.J. Spiller (RB, Buf) | 28.8 |
30 | Pierre Garcon (WR, Was) | 29.2 |
31 | Andre Johnson (WR, Hou) | 31.6 |
32 | Andre Ellington (RB, Ari) | 32.6 |
33 | Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE) | 33.0 |
34 | Vincent Jackson (WR, TB) | 33.2 |
35 | Zac Stacy (RB, StL) | 34.2 |
36 | Victor Cruz (WR, NYG) | 36.8 |
37 | Larry Fitzgerald (WR, Ari) | 37.6 |
38 | Shane Vereen (RB, NE) | 37.6 |
39 | Wes Welker (WR, Den) | 40.4 |
40 | Roddy White (WR, Atl) | 40.6 |
41 | Reggie Bush (RB, Det) | 41.2 |
42 | Michael Crabtree (WR, SF) | 43.6 |
43 | Julian Edelman (WR, NE) | 44.4 |
44 | T.Y. Hilton (WR, Ind) | 44.6 |
45 | Michael Floyd (WR, Ari) | 44.8 |
46 | Percy Harvin (WR, Sea) | 46.6 |
47 | Alfred Morris (RB, Was) | 48.8 |
48 | Toby Gerhart (RB, Jax) | 50.4 |
49 | DeSean Jackson (WR, Was) | 50.6 |
50 | Rashad Jennings (RB, NYG) | 50.8 |
Just Missed
I also want to highlight the players who fall just outside the top 50 because there are some interesting names. Trent Richardson, Ryan Matthews and Chris Johnson are former first-round picks who fantasy players are afraid to trust. Richardson was going No. 1 overall in some dynasty leagues in 2013, to give you an idea of how far his stock has fallen.
The second-tier of quarterbacks begins with Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck -- 28.8 picks separate QB3 Rodgers and QB4 Stafford.
We also get our first rookies on the list in RB Bishop Sankey and WR Sammy Watkins at 62 and 63, respectively. Expect Sankey to move up considerably as it becomes more clear that he'll win the starting job in Titans camp. Watkins, however, could be over-drafted in a lot of leagues, as is often the case with top rookie receivers (see: Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Patterson in 2013).
51 | Trent Richardson (RB, Ind) | 51.2 |
52 | Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Min) | 52.0 |
53 | Jordan Cameron (TE, Cle) | 53.4 |
54 | Mike Wallace (WR, Mia) | 54.4 |
55 | Matthew Stafford (QB, Det) | 56.0 |
56 | Torrey Smith (WR, Bal) | 56.2 |
57 | Jeremy Maclin (WR, Phi) | 58.0 |
58 | Ryan Mathews (RB, SD) | 59.4 |
59 | Kendall Wright (WR, Ten) | 60.4 |
60 | Chris Johnson (RB, NYJ) | 61.4 |
61 | Andrew Luck (QB, Ind) | 61.6 |
62 | Bishop Sankey (RB, Ten) | 62.0 |
63 | Sammy Watkins (WR, Buf) | 63.0 |