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ADP Trends: Running Back

The first thing that jumped out when looking at the latest ADP is how many running backs are losing ground compared to the number who are climbing. It's such a fickle position that, as noted in the preseason Top-50, has already been emphatically overtaken by wide receivers as the top priority for fantasy drafters.

Somehow running backs are being valued even less than they were a month ago, when they were at an all-time low. We know the fantasy community loves to take trends to the extreme. So, is this the year of the running back over-correction? Or is this the new norm? 

The ADP data is pulled from NFFC leagues, which are always PPR.

Risers

PlayerTeamJuly ADPCurrent ADP+/-
Darren McFaddenDal226.8214.112.7
DeAngelo WilliamsPit126.0113.912.2
Jeremy LangfordChi76.167.28.9
James WhiteNE256.3247.78.6
Chris ThompsonWas243.3235.28.1
Arian FosterMia119.5113.46.1
DeMarco MurrayTen59.955.04.9
Chris JohnsonAri228.5223.94.7
Alfred MorrisDal241.1236.94.2
T.J. YeldonJax103.499.83.6
LeGarrette BlountNE175.6172.33.4
Shaun DraughnSF242.6240.02.7
Chris IvoryJax109.6107.02.6
Ryan MathewsPhi76.474.02.4
Devonta FreemanAtl19.517.71.8
Derrick HenryTen120.6118.91.8
LeSean McCoyBuf42.841.11.6
Danny WoodheadSD63.461.91.5
Jeremy HillCin78.376.91.3
Darren SprolesPhi175.4174.21.2
Matt ForteNYJ44.543.31.2
Jamaal CharlesKC26.125.01.1
Adrian PetersonMin14.113.40.8
Thomas RawlsSea50.449.70.6
Todd GurleyLA6.16.10.0

Darren McFadden (+12.7)
This is a head-scratcher. McFadden is hurt (again) and seemingly in jeopardy of losing his roster spot, or at least his backup role to Alfred Morris. Starter Zeke Elliott finally took his first game reps last night for Dallas and looked as advertised. Perhaps that will be McFadden's death knell.

DeAngelo Williams (+12.2)
Williams was fabulous filling in for LeVeon Bell in 2015. With Bell out for at least three games to the start the 2016 season, owners should feel comfort that Williams is around again to save the day. A Bell-Williams tandem could be as strong a scoring combination in fantasy leagues as you can find in the NFL. At pick 113, the ninth-year veteran is a handcuff you're guaranteed to use.

Jeremy Langford (+8.9)
Rookie RB Jordan Howard hasn't proven to be a threat to Langford's starting job, rushing for just 3.6 yards per carry over two preseason games. While Langford didn't set the world on fire from a statistical perspective in 2015, he has posted a more robust 5.2 YPC in exhibition games.  Now the only question is, will coach John Fox's notorious committee approach rear it's ugly head in Chicago?

James White (+8.6)
Dion Lewis is out indefinitely with a knee injury and White is the benefactor. White, though, has looked pedestrian as a runner since entering the league in 2014 and judging by his still low ADP of 247.7, fantasy owners aren't convinced. Keep an eye on Tyler Gaffney as the potential breakout back in New England.

Fallers

PlayerTeamJuly ADPCurrent ADP+/-
Devontae BookerDen166.9167.3-0.4
C.J. AndersonDen40.941.4-0.5
Eddie LacyGB31.432.0-0.6
Theo RiddickDet103.0103.7-0.7
David JohnsonAri6.97.9-1.0
Ameer AbdullahDet90.491.6-1.2
Latavius MurrayOak57.458.7-1.3
Javorius AllenBal149.9151.3-1.4
Ezekiel ElliottDal9.811.4-1.7
Carlos HydeSF48.950.9-2.0
Jerick McKinnonMin177.3179.5-2.2
Le'Veon BellPit7.19.4-2.3
Giovani BernardCin71.173.4-2.3
Doug MartinTB33.836.3-2.5
Bilal PowellNYJ150.4153.1-2.7
Justin ForsettBal116.5119.3-2.8
Mark IngramNO27.830.6-2.9
Shane VereenNYG143.9146.8-2.9
Isaiah CrowellCle127.4130.5-3.1
Lamar MillerHou15.318.5-3.2
Duke Johnson Jr.Cle64.367.5-3.3
Spencer WareKC221.5225.1-3.6
Matt JonesWas58.862.8-4.0
James StarksGB176.9181.4-4.5
Charles SimsTB95.199.8-4.6
Paul PerkinsNYG194.0198.9-4.9
Rashad JenningsNYG109.9114.8-4.9
Dion LewisNE52.357.2-4.9
Frank GoreInd82.187.7-5.6
Melvin GordonSD84.190.0-5.8
Jonathan StewartCar86.692.8-6.2
Tevin ColemanAtl123.3130.7-7.5
Wendell SmallwoodPhi175.3184.5-9.2
Kenneth DixonBal147.3157.3-10.0
Jordan HowardChi155.9166.6-10.8
Ronnie HillmanDen230.9244.1-13.2
C.J. SpillerNO213.8227.3-13.5
DeAndre WashingtonOak154.0168.4-14.4
Tim HightowerNO230.8245.7-15.0
Charcandrick WestKC176.1192.0-15.9
C.J. ProsiseSea138.5155.2-16.7
Jay AjayiMia77.094.1-17.1
Karlos WilliamsBuf143.3162.6-19.4
Kenyan DrakeMia214.4238.9-24.5
Josh FergusonInd209.8244.1-34.3

Josh Ferguson (-34.3)
Ferguson is a scatback and Frank Gore will never die. Gore is also a top-notch pass protector, so there isn't much opportunity for Ferguson get meaningful touches in Indy. He is a watch list candidate, though, that could carve out a niche in a comittee with Robert Turbin if Gore were to get hurt.

Karlos Williams (-19.4)
I will refrain from Karlos Williams fat jokes and just point out that the second-year back is suspended for four games, remains unsigned and shouldn't be on your draft board.

Jay Ajayi (-17.1), Kenyan Drake (-24.5)
We should probably believe the Dolphins when they tell us Ajayi is not their preferred feature back. Miami first sent signals by signing an offer sheet that Denver matched for C.J. Anderson, then they settled on Arian Foster later in the offseason. It's hard not to see Foster running away with the job, if healthy, which is always a big if. Neither back is making an ironclad case for the job in exhibition games, but if Ajayi continues to fall, he could become quite a bargain in the likely event Foster does miss time. The rookie Drake doesn't profile as an every down back and hasn't been able to get on the field in camp due to injury issues that also dogged him at Alabama.