Allen was the top priority for the Heat in the offseason, and he decided to return for another run at a title in 2013-14. For the first time in his career, he came off the bench in every game, serving primarily as a scoring substitution at shooting guard. Though his overall averages predictably dipped, his 15.3 points per 36 minutes were about in line with the previous season. He hit a three-pointer for the ages in Game 6 of the NBA Finals to tie the game and help the Heat push to Game 7 and win back-to-back championships. His bench role hurts his fantasy value, but he still has a sweet jump shot and can knock down threes while still being one of the best of all time from the free-throw line.
One of the best shooters of his generation and the league's all-time leader in three-pointers made, Allen took less money to join the Heat because he was that tired of playing with Rajon Rondo. If healthy, he'll likely be the first player off the bench for Miami, either replacing Wade at the two spot or with Wade sliding over to run the point. But bear in mind - the ankle troubles that slowed Allen in Boston last season aren't going away any time soon, and could limit the future hall-of-famer's minutes.
Allen has defined himself by the three-point shot, and that's where he can help fantasy teams most. Last season, he surpassed Reggie Miller as the NBA's all-time leader in three-point field goals made, and he should have plenty of opportunities to build on that mark this year. Allen's averaged 80 games played for the last three seasons, and even at 36 years old, he has found a way to keep his production at an elevated level. He won't attack the basket as often as he did in his youth, but his excellent shooting percentages from the field and line and his contributions in scoring, steals and especially threes make him consistently valuable. The Celtics drafted E'Twaun Moore out of Purdue to be Allen's heir apparent, so the team may look to lessen Allen's workload some, but we wouldn't expect that to reduce Allen's overall numbers significantly.
At 35 years old and with his most impressive years behind him, Allen isn't exactly what you'd call a "high-upside" pick. But don't let that fool you: despite his lack of scoring (a decent, but not stellar, 16.3 points per game last season), Allen offers significant value in both three-pointers (1.8) and free-throw shooting (91.3% on 3.2 attempts). Those are categories whose scales are sometimes difficult to calculate intuitively. Using z-scores (standard deviations from the mean), however, we see that Allen finished over one standard deviation above the mean in both, placing him roughly 20th and 11th overall in those cats, respectively, among the standard 156 player pool of a typical 12x13 fantasy league. Overall, that situates Allen's value at something like a late-fourth to early-sixth round pick. Certainly, in 9-cat leagues, Allen's value is slightly higher, as his lack of TOs rates him as a positive there, too. Also, Allen's durability is generally terrific, as he's played 79 and 80 games each of the last two seasons.
At a time when most athletes in his sport begin to show signs of age, Allen shocked us all by putting on a 79-game clinic on efficiency. He tied a career-high in field-goal percentage, converting on 48 percent of his attempts and set a career-high in free-throw percentage at a 95.2-percent clip. While his counting stats mostly remained the same, Allen’s sparkling efficiency alone vaulted him from the top-45 into the top-20. It’s unreasonable to expect Allen to maintain this level of efficiency, and a regression back to mean values of 44.8 and 89.3 percent, respectively, is likely. The addition of Rasheed Wallace will cost Allen a field goal attempt or two, and when you factor in the regression of his shooting percentages, it could result in a few points taken off his scoring average this season.
Allen entered last season as an elite producer, but now has to be considered more of a long-range role player given the makeup of the Celtics. At 33, Allen’s still a strong scorer (17.4 ppg) that uses his picture perfect long-range shooting stroke to stay among the league leaders in 3-pointers made (2.5). And playing with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce did help take the pressure off of Allen to initiate everything on offense, which preserved his health (only nine missed games, after missing 27 the year before). Allen’s upside in Boston is limited, but he’s one of the safer players on the board.
Where Ray Allen is concerned the tea leaves predicting his 2007-08 season are very hard to read. On the plus side, he’s one of the best shooters in NBA history who posted a new career high in scoring last year with better-than-expected assist totals. But he’s on the wrong side of 30, coming off offseason surgery on both ankles, and going from being the clear number one scoring option to a situation where he’ll need to share the scoring load with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. Our best guess? He’ll blend well with Boston’s other superstars – their games actually complement each other pretty well, and none of them have the reputation of being “me first” players. Allen’s scoring average may decrease slightly, but he’ll get tons of open looks when opposing defenses key on KG. That should mean an increase in the number of threes he’ll take and hit.
Allen had a mildly improbable career-year last season, quieting concerns that age (recently turned 31) or motivation (max extension before last season) would cause him to slow down. The silky-shooting Allen set career-highs in scoring (25.1 ppg) and 3-pointers made (3.5 per game), while still shooting 90% from the line and grabbing 1.3 steals per game. Allen also stayed healthy for the second year in a row, once again playing in 78 games after missing an average of 15 games a season from 2001-2004. His rebounding (4.2 rpg) and assists (3.7 apg) totals continued their four-year decline, but they are still respectable and contribute to his excellent all-around roto package. After entering last season with several questions and answering them all, this season there is nothing to suggest that Allen will be anything but his elite-shooting/scoring self once again.
With his silky shooting touch and parking-lot range, Allen is one of the best combinations of points (23.9) and 3-pointers (2.7/game) in the NBA. He also generally does a solid job filling out the other categories, with 4.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.1 steals per night last season. Allen shot a career-low 42.8 percent from the field last year, but he could see better scoring opportunities this season as the Sonics plan to use a fastbreak offense, which could lead to easy buckets. Allen, who signed a five-year, $85 million contract in the offseason, is an excellent fantasy producer whose likely draft position brings added value.
No three words describe Allen better than consistency, efficiency and accuracy. Night in and night out, Allen is one of the game’s most reliable contributors. With Brent Barry joining the Spurs, Allen could be looked to shoulder more point guard responsibilities than in the past, increasing his opportunities for assists. Along with Peja Stojakovic, Allen should also be fantasy basketball’s top option for threes. If Allen’s game has any faults, it’s his unselfishness. Unlike some of the game’s best shooting guards, Allen is a team-oriented player rather than necessarily a stats-oriented player. Therefore, Allen might not be up-to-par with the McGradys and Bryants in points scored. Still, his superiority in threes and FT%, along with pluses in the points and assists category, should catapult Allen into a solid late first round or early second round pick.
In 29 games after being traded for Gary Payton last season, Allen led the Sonics in scoring (24.5), assists (5.9), steals (1.6) and free throw percentage (92%). He also averaged 5.6 rebounds per game. Allen is one of the few fantasy stalwarts on the roster and one of the league's best guards, nailing 37.7 percent of his 3-pointers last season. He's a top 5 shooting guard and should have another solid year as he'll be the Sonics' main scoring option.
