Howard, who came over from the Mavericks in the Caron Butler trade, had a lost season in 2009-10 as he struggled with injuries and inconsistent play. He is currently recovering from major knee surgery and will not be 100 percent to begin the season. When Howard does get back to full strength, most likely in late November, he'll provide energy and scoring off the bench at small forward and shooting guard and could conceivably push Al Thornton out of the starting small forward job at some point this season.
Injuries robbed Howard of 30 games last season, and even when he played he was unable to produce at his usual levels while playing a six-year low of 32 minutes per game. The good news is that Howard should enter this season healthy again, and that he also should finally be past the bad publicity that hounded him after his public admissions of marijuana use. The bad news is that Howard has missed double-figure games due to injury in five of his six seasons, so he must officially be treated as an injury risk moving forward. Howard will still be called upon as a primary offensive weapon for the Mavericks, and presumably the Mavs will try to run more this season with Jason Kidd as the engine and Howard and Marion on the wings. This should lead to easier shots for Howard, who is currently in the midst of a four-year decline in field-goal percentage. The brightest new addition to Howard’s game last season was the 3-point shot, which he hit a career-high-tying 1.3 per 36-minute clip.
We talk a lot about how elite point guards impact the fantasy values of players – accurate passes set up easier shots, which by extension improves shooting percentages and scoring numbers. But Jason Kidd’s arrival in Dallas seemed to have the opposite effect on Howard last season – pre-Kidd, Howard was shooting over 47 percent from the floor. After the deal, that number sank to 42.6, as Howard seemed to have trouble adjusting to an offense running through the point as opposed to being focused on Dirk Nowitzki. That, combined with the generally disappointing end to the Mavericks’ season, might lead to Howard getting undervalued in many drafts this year. Don’t make that mistake. First-round ouster – and controversial news about off-court habits – aside, Howard’s 2007-08 was a career-best year, as he set new highs for scoring (19.9 points), boards (7.0) and assists (2.2) while tying his career-best with 76 games (after missing 35 over the previous two seasons due to several injuries). With a full training camp to get used to his new quarterback, we expect Howard to reverse the “reverse Jason Kidd effect” and put up excellent numbers this season.
Howard emerged from a very tall, very German shadow last season and was a named to his first All-Star team last season, on the strength of career highs in points (18.9), boards (6.8), threes (1.3 per game), free-throw percentage (82.7) and blocks (0.8). He won’t ever be the Mavericks’ first option – not while Dirk Nowitzki is still in Dallas – but his game complements Dirk’s very well, and he seems well-suited to the role of Pippen to Nowitzki’s Jordan. There seems to be no reason why he can’t continue to improve upon last year’s numbers. Well, there is one – injuries. Howard seems to get nicked up every year, missing 44 games over the last two seasons. If you find yourself considering Howard, make sure to factor in the stats you’ll get from a replacement-level player if he misses another 10-15 games this year.
Howard does a little bit of everything and, coming into his fourth season, is an integral part of the Dallas Mavericks team. At 6-7, he’s the team’s best defender and proved last year that his offensive game is quickly catching up to his defensive prowess. He averaged 15.6 points per game last year on 47.1% shooting from the field while also chipping in 6.3 rebounds per game and 1.2 steals. Durability has become a bit of an issue with Howard; he missed 23 games last year due to ankle sprains. Howard is the kind of versatile player that you should look for in the middle rounds of your draft.
With Jerry Stackhouse, Marquis Daniels and now Doug Christie in the swingman mix in Big D, the minutes picture might seem as murky as ever, but the good news is that Michael Finley has moved on, and Dallas often goes small, allowing three of those guys on the court at once with Howard as a four. His line isn't too far above or below median levels all the way across given the 32.2 minutes he's played, but with an expected bump over 35 minutes following Finley's departure, Howard can bust out something closer to what he showed us in the playoffs, when he pumped up the shooting percentage, scoring and rebounding.
Howard has an outside shot of cracking the starting lineup this season if the three-guard starting lineup of Terry, Daniels, and Finley doesn't come to fruition. Most likely, however, Howard will fill a backup small forward role vacated by Eduardo Najera and will be a hustle player that can spark the Mavericks off the bench.
The Mavs' 2003 first-round pick will try to add depth at forward.
