One of the true question marks on the roster this year, Stojakovic battled nagging injuries and missed 19 games last season. His playing time and statistics declined in pretty much every category, and he will likely see an even steeper drop in minutes this year now that Trevor Ariza is in town. Stojakovic may find himself buried behind Trevor Ariza and Quincy Pondexter at small forward and behind Marco Belinelli as the sharp shooter off the bench.
Stojakovic had one of the worst seasons of his 11-year career in 2008, as he was hampered by a back injury from the get-go and limited to just 61 games. His production dropped off significantly even when he was on the court as he averaged just 13.3 points (lowest since his sophomore season in 1999) while shooting an anemic 39.9 percent from the field. The Hornets are just trying to salvage his career at this point and keep him healthy for a good part of this season.
Players with a history of back injuries will always be risky selections. Last season, the risk paid off, as Peja played a career-high 77 games and hit new bests in threes made (3.0 per game) free throw percentage (92.9 percent) and turnovers (0.8 per game) while averaging 16.4 points. He’s a perfect fit on the Hornets – Chris Paul can find him for open threes, while Tyson Chandler and new arrival James Posey can cover for his well-known defensive deficiencies. But asking a player with Peja’s history to play 70-plus regular season games in two straight years might be too much.
When healthy, Peja is one of the game’s best pure shooters, and on a team with a dynamite passer in Chris Paul and excellent inside play from Tyson Chandler, one would think he’d be in a position to post really huge numbers. Unfortunately, there’s no way of knowing if Stojakovic will ever be completely healthy. His aching back kept him out of all but 13 games last season, and back troubles have cut short far too many athletic careers. If he’s able to play, we’d expect him to repeat or better last year’s numbers (17.8 ppg, 4.1 boards, 2.6 treys) at a minimum, and as such, he’s definitely worth a late-round selection.
After beginning last season with Sacramento and ending it with Indiana, Stoyakovic signed a 5-year, $64 million deal with the New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets this summer. Playing with talented second-year point guard Chris Paul should allow Peja to do what he does best, shoot the basketball. With Paul’s ability to draw double teams on penetration, Peja should see plenty of wide-open looks this year. A career 18.4 ppg scorer, Stojakovic will primarily help a fantasy team with points, threes (career 2.1 per game) and FT% (career 89.4%). The Hornets don’t have a lot of scoring options outside of Paul and power forward David West, so Peja should see plenty of minutes and get plenty of shot attempts.
With the loss of Vlade Divac and harsh words from teammate Chris Webber prior to last season, Peja wanted off the Kings squad, but by the trading deadline, it was Webber who was shipped out of town. Shareef Abdur-Rahim steps in at the four, but at this point, Peja is the premier scorer on a talented team. Oddly, when Webber left, Peja's line didn't bump up much, and certainly wasn't as strong as what he posted in 2003-04 when Webber was hurt, and Peja became one of the top-10 fantasy players in the league. He's one of the sharpest shooters around, able to record sensational numbers for points, threes, and percentages, and even steals a good bit. Like the classic small forward, however, he doesn't rebound, dish or block worth his salt. Even though he roams the perimeter, Peja misses 10 or more games due to injury just about every year. While there's upside stepping more fully into the offensive spotlight, temper expectations given his frailty.
Stojakovic proved last season that he was more than strictly a spot-up three-point shooter. Stojakovic improved his mid-range game and took the ball to the hoop more often, which opened up his outside game as well. Although Stojakovic is nothing more than average in rebounding and passing, he is the league’s best when in comes to threes and one of the league leaders in points. A healthy Chris Webber diminishes Stojakovic’s value slightly as he’ll play second fiddle to Webber, but an injured Webber translates into Stojakovic deserving top-10 respect. The loss of friend and mentor Vlade Divac might hurt his morale at times, but Stojakovic's game shouldn’t be affected too much by the departure of his close friend. Expect three or more threes per game and a 25-point per game average this season. Stojakovic should be taken in the early-to-mid second round.
Stojakovic is pretty much a lock to average 20 points, five boards, two assists, and a steal this season. He will also be among the league leaders in three pointers made and free throw percentage. Expect Stojakovic to to put together his fourth straight All-Star caliber season, but his lack of production in categories such as assists and blocks prevent him from being considered a premier fantasy forward.
