The Prospect Post: Mock Lottery 2.0

1. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets) (9-35)
Markelle Fultz // PG // Washington

Every casual draft observer has Fultz locked in at No. 1, as do most hardcore draft analysts. He is a special offensive player, and a phenomenal athlete for a point guard. However, you can count on three fingers the score-first point guards who are below-average defenders and still have the ability to lead teams to the postseason on an annual basis (Stephen Curry, James Harden, Russell Westbrook). Fultz could be this special, but it's an awfully high bar to clear. If he ends up *only* being as impactful as Kyrie Irving or Damian Lillard, then Josh Jackson is the better pick at No. 1.

2. Miami Heat (15-30)
Lonzo Ball // PG // UCLA

Ball is a special point guard with a pass-first instinct that is a rarity these days, and it sounds like Pat Riley has settled on taking Fultz or Ball if he lands a top-two pick, or if one of them falls to him outside of the top two. It would be surprising if Ball did not finish in the top-five in the league in assists by his third season, and he has the potential to lead the league in assists during his peak seasons. He is an extremely efficient scorer, essentially refusing to shoot if it's not a layup or three-pointer, but that efficiency will be tested when NBA defenses dare him to take mid-range jumpers. Depending on the draft order, Ball could go anywhere from No. 2 to No. 5, but it's hard to see him falling further than that.

3. Phoenix Suns (15-30)
Josh Jackson // SF // Kansas

To be clear, unlike the rest of the world, Jackson, not Fultz, is atop my personal big board. However, it seems clear at this point, especially if the Celtics and Heat have the first two picks, that Jackson is unlikely to go in the top two.

The Suns will pounce if the best athlete and best two-way player in this draft falls to No. 3. Jackson is a great passer, finisher, rebounder and defender, who plays the game with a high motor and high IQ that we rarely see in players with his pedigree and athleticism. His three-point shot needs quite a bit of work, but the same could be said of plenty of 6-foot-8, 19-year-olds who went on to be average or better three-point shooters in the NBA. He may not make as much in endorsements as Fultz or Ball, but Jackson will be the best all-around player in this draft.

4. Philadelphia 76ers (via Los Angeles Lakers) (16-32)
Dennis Smith // PG // NC State

Smith has really cemented his stock as a top-six pick in ACC play, averaging 20.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.9 assists and 2.6 steals while shooting 45.9 percent from the field and 34.9 percent from beyond the arc in 34.4 minutes per game. It would not be surprising if 10-15 teams had Smith ahead of Ball on their boards right now, so depending on how the draft order shakes out, Smith could go as high as No. 2. Smith would be a good complement for Ben Simmons, as Simmons could be the top distributor, while Smith does most of his damage as a scorer when the two are on the court at the same time.

5. Dallas Mavericks (15-29)
Frank Ntilikina // PG // France

The Mavericks seem like one the most obvious point guard teams in the top five, and Ntilikina is the last point guard available whose talent dictates that he goes this high. At 6-foot-5, 185 pounds, he has the best combination of size and athleticism among the point guards in this draft, and he profiles as a better and more willing defender than Fultz, Ball or Smith. His three-point stroke is behind Fultz and Ball, and about even with Smith right now, and he compares favorably to Fultz and Smith as a distributor. It would not be surprising if a team in the top three fell in love with Ntilikina and considered him there, but with so much high-end stateside talent, it would take a pretty brave front office to actually pull the trigger that high.

6. Philadelphia 76ers (16-27)
Jonathan Isaac // SF // Florida State

Isaac is the unicorn of this draft. He is 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan and a 9-foot-1 standing reach, yet he plays small forward and is shooting 38.5 percent from beyond the arc this season as a 19-year-old. He really turned it on of late against UNC, Notre Dame and Louisville (three top-15 teams), averaging 18.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 3.0 blocks while shooting 63.0 percent from the field, 55.6 from downtown and 94.4 percent from the line in 26.7 minutes per game. His size, athleticism, shooting and two-way potential give him a limitless ceiling, and it is not unfathomable to imagine him going in the top three, and perhaps as high as No. 1 if he keeps up his recent pace.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves (17-28)
Jayson Tatum // SF // Duke

Tatum is the toughest guy in the top-10 to assign to a team. He is not in the same class as the guys in the top six, and not many teams are craving a tweener wing with a shaky three-point stroke, whose defensive ability against NBA size and athleticism is in question, despite impressive counting stats on that end of the court against college players. Still, his size and scoring prowess will likely land him a spot in the top 10. He could serve as the sixth man in Minnesota, and would offer a replacement option if the T-Wolves choose not to max out Andrew Wiggins.

8. Orlando Magic (18-29)
Malik Monk // SG // Kentucky

Every team in the draft needs shooting, and at this point, the pros outweigh the cons with Monk. It also makes very little sense for the Magic to target a big man here. At 6-foot-4, 185 pounds, Monk lacks premier size for a shooting guard, but he should offer the bulk scoring and three-point shooting that the Magic seem unlikely to ever get from Mario Hezonja.

9. Sacramento Kings (17-27)
De'Aaron Fox // PG // Kentucky

This would be a pretty perfect scenario for the Kings, as they would keep their pick rather than sending it to the Bulls (with it landing in the top-10), and would get the last of the five high-end point guard prospects in this draft. Fox has good size, athleticism and defense/rebound traits, but he is the worst three-point shooter among the nine players to come off the board so far, and it's not particularly close. Those shooting woes could lead to him falling outside the top 10 on draft night, but the Kings might be desperate enough for a ready starter at point guard to overlook his glaring weakness.

10. New Orleans Pelicans (18-27)
Lauri Markkanen // PF // Arizona

After the Ryan Anderson/Anthony Davis tandem failed to have much success, it may seem counterintuitive for the Pelicans to take another big man whose top trait is his elite shooting and whose worst traits are his defense and lateral quickness. That said, Markkanen is clearly the best prospect left on the board here, and would be the clear pick at No. 8 and No. 9 if the Magic or Kings had a need at the four.

11. Portland Trail Blazers (19-27)
Harry Giles // PF // Duke

This might be a little too familiar for Blazers fans, as they've seen the downside in investing in uber-talented big men with significant lower-body injury concerns. That said, the Blazers may just decide to roll the dice on Giles, who could be a top-five talent in this class if he can stay healthy. There aren't a lot of obvious openings for playing time in Portland, so going for upside over another quality rotation piece seems like the way to go.

12. New York Knicks (20-26)
Robert Williams // PF/C // Texas A&M

The idea of pairing Williams, who is essentially an undersized center (6-foot-9, 237 pounds), with Kristaps Porzingis, who is an oversized power forward, makes a lot of sense. Joakim Noah's corpse is technically still atop the depth chart at center, but let's not dwell on that. Williams is a top-five athlete in this class, and he is averaging 19.8 points, 11.5 rebounds and 4.4 blocks per 40 minutes while shooting 59.9 percent from the field. His lack of traditional height for his position makes him unique, but his athleticism, rebounding and shot-blocking abilities still give him a high floor.

13. Detroit Pistons (21-25)
Miles Bridges // SF // Michigan State

Bridges is not in my personal top-14, and my top regret after Mock Lottery 1.0 was including Bridges and not including T.J. Leaf, yet here we go again. After Monk and Fox, the next six or seven best prospects are all big men, so teams that want to address a need in the backcourt or on the wing will need to reach a little. The Stanley Johnson pick is looking pretty bad right now, and Bridges would give the Pistons a second crack at getting that two-way wing capable of guarding threes and fours who also stretches the floor.

14. Milwaukee Bucks (21-23)
Justin Patton // C // Creighton

Patton is essentially a competitive, more agile John Henson. He is excellent at running the floor, and he moves more like a wing than a center. He could stand to add 20 pounds of muscle, but his ability to stretch the floor and protect the rim should have him in the mix for the lottery when June arrives. This seems like a classic John Hammond pick, as Patton's size, length and upside check all of the boxes of a classic middle of the first round pick under the Bucks general manager.

T.J. Leaf, OG Anunoby, Rodions Kurucs and Ivan Rabb all just missed the cut.

Top 10 Prospects
1. Josh Jackson, SF, Kansas (Last week: 1)
2. Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington (Last week: 2)
3. Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA (Last week: 5)
4. Jonathan Isaac, SF, Florida State (Last week: 7)
5. Frank Ntilikina, PG, France (Last week: 3)
6. Dennis Smith, PG, NC State (Last week: 6)
7. Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke (Last week: 4)
8. Lauri Markkanen, PF, Arizona (Last week: NR)
9. Malik Monk, SG, Kentucky (Last week: 9)
10. Justin Patton, C, Creighton (Last week: NR)