The Prospect Post: It Takes Three To Tank

It Takes Three To Tank

This article aims to provide an ongoing evaluation of the NBA's rookie class from a fantasy standpoint while also offering deep dives on college players with bright futures. Projecting young talent is very subjective, so an open dialogue is encouraged, both in the comments section and on Twitter: @RealJRAnderson

It's tanking season. Granted, it was tanking season for the Sixers before the season even started, but now they have company. A quick glance at the standings reveals that 27 teams have double-digit wins. The remaining three teams have just five wins apiece. No team is in the closet anymore. Sure, there are another half dozen teams that have no misconceptions about contending this year, but they won't be able to catch the three frontrunners for top prize in June. Philly, New York and Minnesota each took a different path to get here, but the goal is the same -- get a top-3 pick, and preferably the No. 1 overall pick.

Philadelphia 76ers

How They Got Here:

The 76ers engaged in a Houston Astros-style rebuild that was set into motion when they traded Jrue Holiday for Nerlens Noel on draft night in 2013. After winning just 19 games last season, they locked up another high pick, and found a perfect fit in Joel Embiid. Embiid, like Noel the year before, will most likely miss his entire rookie season due to an injury, allowing the Sixers to gain a potential franchise center while keeping the team terrible for one more year. Players named Chris Johnson and JaKarr Sampson have both started multiple games for Philly. It is not that they used draft picks on guys that could not contribute right away, it is the fact that they avoided the low-end free agents who belong in the NBA and opted instead to load up the roster with D-League players that makes their tank job so impressive. They are flaunting the tank.

Legitimate Building Blocks:

Joel Embiid, C - may not debut until next season due to a foot injury.
Dario Saric, SF/PF - still in Europe, may not be able to come to the NBA until 2016-17.

*Note: K.J. McDaniels would qualify here, but he is a free agent after this season.

Summary Of Key Pieces:

Embiid could be a superstar at the center position, but it's all projection at this point. Saric could be the best non-Embiid player on the team when, and if, he comes, but he won't want to join a team that has lost 60-plus games in three straight seasons. Michael Carter-Williams has been a counting stat stud based on opportunities, but his shooting percentages are god-awful across the board. He should be the fourth or fifth best player in the starting lineup of a fringe playoff team, not the best player. It is too soon to write off Nerlens Noel completely, but so far his defense has not made up for his offensive ineptitude. The Sixers would have no problem trading Carter-Williams or Noel for a future lottery pick, so they do not qualify here.

Best Fit:

The Sixers need talent above all else, but three of the four most talented players in the draft, Jahlil Okafor, Karl Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein, would not be great fits alongside Embiid. With this in mind, Emmanuel Mudiay, who is currently playing in China, would be the best fit for the Sixers as a top-3 pick. Mudiay is playing in China due to eligibility issues coming out of high school and is the best guard prospect in the draft. He would represent an immediate upgrade over Carter-Williams at point guard, and while Carter-Williams certainly does not profile as a combo guard off the bench, the Sixers might be able to trade him for a first round pick.

New York Knicks

How They Got Here:

The Knicks started the season with one great player, Carmelo Anthony, who is stuck in his ways about how he plays the game. Then they tried to install an offense that nobody on the team bought into, and that Anthony viewed as a detriment to his style of play. Anthony now has a knee injury that could result in the team shutting him down, and while people will talk about how bad they are after he is no longer in the mix, it's hard to be much worse than they have already been. After dumping J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert on the Cavaliers, Tim Hardaway, Jr. could be the Knicks' go-to scorer over the final 45 games of the season.

Legitimate Building Blocks:

Carmelo Anthony, SF - it will be interesting to see who lasts in New York longer, Anthony or Derek Fisher.

Summary Of Key Pieces:

Yup, Anthony is the only piece on the roster that has significant value. Hardaway could be useful as a sixth or seventh man off the bench who just comes in and chucks, but those guys are a dime a dozen. Cole Aldrich looks like he could be a backup center on a playoff team, but players like that are also pretty easy to find.

Best Fit:

Jahlil Okafor could be the next Tim Duncan. If the Knicks landed Okafor it would almost be wise to just trade Anthony and build the team around the young center and get half a supporting cast and some picks in return for Anthony. He would immediately be one of the top centers in the Eastern Conference and would give the Knicks a player to market to their fans. Obviously every team in the league would love to have Okafor, but at this point, the Knicks NEED him.

Minnesota Timberwolves

How They Got Here: Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin have played 23 combined games this season due to injuries. It's not like those three guys are going to swing a team from being terrible to being good, but they could certainly be at double-digit wins with a healthier roster. Once it became clear that contending for a playoff spot was not in the cards, Corey Brewer was shipped out of town to open up even more minutes for Andrew Wiggins and Shabazz Muhammad. While Wiggins has looked excellent at times, he's just 19, and is not ready to lead a team to wins singlehandedly. The T-Wolves have also let Zach LaVine run the point for much of the season in Rubio's absence, and he is clearly not ready to run an NBA offense.

Potentially Legitimate Building Blocks:

Andrew Wiggins, SG/SF - I wrote extensively about him in this space last week, but the future certainly appears bright.
Gorgui Dieng, C - A legitimate rim-protector with a developing offensive game, who eventually could be the starting center on a playoff team.

Summary Of Key Pieces:

Wiggins could be the best player on a playoff team, and the second best player on a title contender, but that time is not yet here. For now, the T-Wolves should be learning from the mistakes of the Cavaliers and Pelicans, and follow what the Thunder did with Kevin Durant, allowing him to grow with a young, talented core. Dieng fits in nicely to that equation, as he has already developed into a better offensive player than he was projected to be coming out of Syracuse. He will never be a Marc Gasol/Dwight Howard level center, but he could hold his own someday against the best big men in the league.

Best Fit:

The T-Wolves have the most appealing young core of the three teams vying for the No. 1 pick. Mudiay would be a great fit, as they could trade Rubio and move LaVine off the ball, and out of the starting lineup. However, Okafor would be an excellent fit too. Unlike Embiid in Philly, Dieng is not a center to build around. Okafor is a fine defensive player, but he could benefit from playing with Dieng, as it would allow him to guard the lesser big man on the opposing team in order to focus most of his attention on the offensive end, where he excels. T-Wolves fans would be lucky to get either Mudiay or Okafor, but it would be most appealing from an outsider's perspective to see Wiggins and Okafor grow together as a one-two punch that could be devastating at the end of the decade.