The Prospect Post: Projecting TJ Leaf in the NBA

UCLA is undefeated entering conference play, and while Lonzo Ball is the household name and SportsCenter star of the team, TJ Leaf has been every bit as important to their surprisingly dominant start. Ball is a consensus top-10 pick, and has been written about on the internet ad nauseam. Leaf is a far more interesting player to pin down. I released my first mock lottery of the season two weeks ago, and less than 48 hours after I submitted it, I regretted not including Leaf. He is clearly a better NBA prospect than Miles Bridges of Michigan State, whom I had going 14th.

It's a bit surprising that Leaf is still a little under the radar at this point, considering his success this season. He was a top-25 recruit, and a top-15 recruit according to certain outlets, and he is playing on a championship-caliber blueblood UCLA team.

His story is an interesting one, as the California-born power forward originally committed to play for Sean Miller at Arizona, but then decommitted after Miller left him off USA Basketball's gold medal winning U19 team in the summer of 2015. It was an admirable move at the time, but deep down Miller is likely kicking himself, as Leaf is arguably a top-10 player in the country right now -- something nobody could have predicted coming into the season.

For a casual observer who tunes in to watch UCLA for the first time Wednesday night against Oregon, Leaf may initially seem like a polished four-year player, not a stud freshman. After all, he is white, American and while he is a very good athlete, it's not the type of athleticism that jumps off the screen like Josh Jackson or Malik Monk. That is not the profile of a typical lottery pick.

The obvious comparison is to another one-and-done UCLA power forward whose well-rounded offensive game was one of his top qualities: Kevin Love. Here is how the two stacked up as freshman:

Love always had a doughy body, and he is actually lighter now than he was as a freshman in college, whereas Leaf is lean and will add weight after he gets drafted. In a couple years, the two will likely be within 10 pounds of each other.

Here is how their performance stacks up through their first 13 games at UCLA:

It should be noted that Love's team played at a slower pace than this current UCLA squad, but Leaf is still clearly more efficient from the field. Another thing worth noting is that Love only attempted 13 three-pointers in his first 13 games of college, while Leaf has already attempted 30 from beyond the arc. While Leaf took more threes, Love's game was all about getting to the line, as he attempted a whopping 97 free throws in his first 13 games, compared to Leaf's 32 free-throw attempts. A lot of that can be attributed to the aforementioned pace, as Love's UCLA teams grinded out possessions, while Leaf's team plays a pro-style offense.

What will really stand out to NBA scouts is Leaf's playmaking abilities. It is quite an accomplishment for a freshman power forward to be averaging almost three assists per game while playing next to three ball-dominant guards. He is very adept at drawing the defense and passing out of the post.

He is also excellent at passing out of the high post -- a rare trait in today's big men.

These are not crazy highlight-reel passes, but they are precise and they lead to buckets. That's all any coach will ask out of a passing big man.

Leaf carries himself like a pretty cool customer, and would never get labeled as scrappy, which is a good thing, because it speaks to how much talent he has. However, he turns his hustle motor up when he needs to:

As with almost all power forwards in today's NBA game, Leaf will need to stretch the floor, and so far he passes that test with flying colors. He is shooting 50 percent from behind the arc thanks to a smooth, fluid stroke:

His elite body control is what boosts his athleticism grades from good to very good. I can't wait to see the scores he puts up at the combine, as he should surprise some people. The key for him is that he moves incredibly well. He is always under control and extremely coordinated. This allows him to be very efficient on the offensive glass. He is a great crasher and typically either finishes with a put-back dunk or a tip-in before the defense can adjust. Case in point:

He will need to get better with his left hand, as he currently goes right almost all the time. That said, he is good enough with his right to destroy Bam Adebayo, a projected top-20 pick in this class, on the baseline for an easy slam:

There are no holes in Leaf's game, and he excels as a shooter, passer and rebounder. He is a legitimate NBA-quality athlete who should be able to guard power forwards competently at the next level, while also handling some threes and fives. The Kevin Love comp is not perfect, as he is a better athlete, a more willing passer in the halfcourt and not the force that Love was on the glass. However, his three-point stroke is very reminiscent of Love's. His passing traits are reminiscent of Marc Gasol's, and he moves like Andrew Wiggins -- never out of control and with no wasted motion, yet explosive when necessary. He has an excellent feel for the game and for playing winning basketball. Essentially he is a coach's dream, and will inevitably be a general manager's dream for certain teams picking in the lottery.

Top 10 Prospects

1. Josh Jackson, SF, Kansas (Last week: 1)
2. Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington (Last week: 2)
3. Frank Ntilikina, PG, France (Last week: 3)
4. Jonathan Isaac, SF, Florida State (Last week: 4)
5. Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke (Last week: 6)
6. OG Anunoby, SF, Indiana (Last week: 7)
7. Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA (Last week: 5)
8. Dennis Smith, PG, NC State (Last week: 8)
9. TJ Leaf, PF, UCLA (Last week: NR)
10. Malik Monk, SG, Kentucky (Last week: NR)