This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Thursday's four-game slate features three of the top four teams in the Western conference, including two teams in OKC and Golden State that will look to set the scoreboard on fire for the second time in less than a week. Here's a look at this week's recommended bets. Betting lines listed are from covers.com.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors -7.5; Total: 229.5
The Warriors find themselves in prime position to grab their second victory in less than a week against the Thunder. Oklahoma City will have to play back-to-back games on the road against a Warriors squad that is undefeated (25-0) at home this season. Steph Curry is expected to return to the lineup following a one-game absence with a sprained ankle. The Thunder have struggled mightily on the road, an ugly 9-18 against the spread this season. Golden State, for its part, hasn't fared much better, posting just three wins against the spread in its last 10 games.
With Andre Iguodala questionable to play, and both OKC and Golden State struggling to cover the spread the last two weeks, bettors are likely better off fading the spread and focusing on the game total. Both teams have averaged 229.3 total points per game over the last five games and 231.2 points per game over their last 10. The Warriors have led the NBA in pace all season, while Oklahoma City ranks seventh in pace overall. Golden State has also covered the over at a rate of 59.3 percent
Thursday's four-game slate features three of the top four teams in the Western conference, including two teams in OKC and Golden State that will look to set the scoreboard on fire for the second time in less than a week. Here's a look at this week's recommended bets. Betting lines listed are from covers.com.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors -7.5; Total: 229.5
The Warriors find themselves in prime position to grab their second victory in less than a week against the Thunder. Oklahoma City will have to play back-to-back games on the road against a Warriors squad that is undefeated (25-0) at home this season. Steph Curry is expected to return to the lineup following a one-game absence with a sprained ankle. The Thunder have struggled mightily on the road, an ugly 9-18 against the spread this season. Golden State, for its part, hasn't fared much better, posting just three wins against the spread in its last 10 games.
With Andre Iguodala questionable to play, and both OKC and Golden State struggling to cover the spread the last two weeks, bettors are likely better off fading the spread and focusing on the game total. Both teams have averaged 229.3 total points per game over the last five games and 231.2 points per game over their last 10. The Warriors have led the NBA in pace all season, while Oklahoma City ranks seventh in pace overall. Golden State has also covered the over at a rate of 59.3 percent this season, more than any other team.
The Pick: Over 229.5
Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat -13.5; Total: 210
Phoenix has shown a strong commitment to acquiring as many ping pong balls as possible, with interim head coach Earl Watson promoting his worst point guard in 32-year-old journeyman Ronnie Price into the starting lineup while forcing a 21-year-old Archie Goodwin to compete for shooting guard minutes alongside their 19-year-old first-round draft pick Devin Booker. It's this level of ineptitude that leads bettors to find as many opportunities as possible to take action against Phoenix. The Suns are 1-9 in their last 10 games and 7-21 against the spread on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Heat have won five of their last seven games and are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10. Miami has averaged 105.8 points per game over the last 10 games, while Phoenix ranked 28th, scoring just 100.8 points per game in that span. This provides a solid opportunity to jump on the game total.
The Pick: Under 210
Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks -7; Total: 220.5
The second-most consistent team in terms of pace this season has been none other than the Sacramento Kings, led by Rajon Rondo who is one of only two point guards in the NBA to average double-digit assists (12 APG). The only other team to average more points scored than the Warriors happens to be the Mavericks, who have averaged a 120.6 points per game over their last five games. Sacramento has been an offensive load to deal in its own right, averaging 107.2 points per game overall this season, good for third in the NBA. This can be credited to George Karl's uptempo offense, which often leads to as many fastbreak points as it does turnovers for opponents. The Kings also rank in the bottom seven in points allowed to every position on the floor with the exception of center, where they allow the third most in the NBA. Look for Chandler Parsons and Wes Matthews to take full advantage of a Sacramento squad that allows the most three-pointers in the league.
The Pick: Over 220.5
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans +8.5; Total: 207
Lost in all the excitement and media coverage of Golden State's chase at history is the fact that the Spurs have also been crushing teams as the most consistent and dominant teams in the NBA, as evidenced by the defensive efficiency rating (-22.5), which is more than six points higher than the next best team (Clippers, -16.5). The Pelicans will have to travel home for the second game back-to-back after five-point loss to the Houston Rockets. New Orleans may have trouble improving its 12-17 home record against the spread after suffering recent injuries to Omer Asik (knee), Dante Cunningham (knee) and Bryce Dejean-Jones (wrist surgery). Coach Gregg Popovich has once again found a way to make the Spurs three-deep at every position, seamlessly integrating Jonathan Simmons, Boban Marjanovic and Kyle Anderson. This is the primary reason why they've been able to cover the over/under at a league-leading 63.3 percent despite being regular double-digit favorites. With San Antonio coming in at 9-1 against the spread in the last 10 games, you can guess which way we're leaning here.
The Pick: Spurs -8.5
