NBA Midseason Power Rankings: Top 10 Teams

This article is part of our NBA Barometer series.

Welcome back to RotoWire's NBA power rankings. These midseason rankings also double as a trade-deadline preview, so find somewhere comfortable to sit or maybe even lay down before you start reading. 

Likelihood of winning a championship is the main criteria for determining these top-10 teams. Experience level, quality wins, and week-to-week momentum also have a large impact on the rankings. The vision of each franchise was also taken into account.

Analytically:

• 58.0 percent true-shooting (TS%) is approximately league average. TS% factors in 2s, 3s and free-throws.
• A possession = A player registering a shot, turnover, or foul drawn
  • PPP = (average generated) points per possession
• eFG% = 3s and 2s being adjusted for (FG + 0.5 * 3P).

All stats are accurate through Jan. 28's games. 

1. Denver Nuggets

Record: 33-15 (2nd in WC)   Preseason O/U: 52.5 wins    Current O/U: 56.5

Nikola Jokic is 1-of-1 impacting the game without scoring, so when he's averaging 31.5 points, 13.3 rebounds and 8.2 assists over his last six games, I'm down to crown Denver as the league's best. His two-man game with Jamal Murray is in prime form.

Recently, Denver earned a comeback win over Boston, beat Milwaukee, and was trounced by the revamped Knicks. Both wins were fueled by Jokic and Murray with minimal help. Denver's supporting cast is delivering, but the bench has no punch. Christian Braun is showing incremental growth across the board, but he isn't an advantage creator in the halfcourt.

Michael Porter has posted 11 single-digit scoring games after logging just six last season. Porter is rebounding at career-high levels alongside great shooting, but his inconsistency is noted.

The floor-spacing element of Aaron Gordon's game has vanished. He's connecting on just 29.9 percent of 1.8 3PA/g despite 77.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot attempts being unguarded. Is Gordon hampered by lingering heel and shoulder injuries? If his and Jokic's two-man game is less potent, that's a trend to monitor. 

Murray is amid an elite season, posting 21.4 points per game and career-best marks of 58.6 TS% and a 3.4 AST/TO ratio (highest assist rate ever). Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's 3&D is present. Peyton Watson is flashing as a clamper on the perimeter. The recipe exists for Denver to repeat, but competition is stiffer.

2. Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 30-15 (4th in WC)   Preseason O/U: 47.5 wins    Current O/U: 54.5

When Russell Westbrook, Terance Mann, Norman Powell can galvanize comeback wins behind James Harden, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, that's a dangerous team.

Kawhi and Paul George are both posting career-best true-shooting percentages. Kawhi's 23.6 points on 52.5/44.8/88.1 percent shooting is prime form, and dominant historically:

Leonard's midrange game is a clutch bucket whenever needed, but the Clippers:

• Have multiple isolation weapons, so they can pick on whoever they want. 
• Rank 2nd in overall halfcourt efficiency of 1.061 PPP (trails Thunder)
• Lead the league with 39.4 3P% as a team (14th in frequency)

Harden is burying 40.9 percent of his triples alongside a career-best 3.31 AST/TO ratio. Everything is easier. Powell is connecting on 44.2 percent of 4.5 3PA/g. The lone blemish is that Mann's jumper is failing him -- 31.0 percent on 145 attempts, dropping from an above-average 39.9 percent last year.

The center rotation of Ivica Zubac (calf), Mason Plumlee and Daniel Theis is functional. Plumlee is perennially underrated for being connective on both ends. I trust him in a part-time playoff role. The finances of a Jonathan Isaac deal could be arranged. Would Memphis move on from Xavier Tillman? Tillman made Anthony Davis work in the playoffs last year. Amir Coffey has been impactful but is likely expendable. A move is coming -- PJ Tucker carries a total bill of $48 million this season because of the Clippers' luxury tax position.

3. Boston Celtics

Record: 36-11 (1st in EC)    Preseason O/U: 54.5 wins   Current O/U: 62.5

Losses to Denver, Milwaukee, Oklahoma City and the Clippers in January sting. The Celtics own the league's 3rd-best offensive and defensive rating (and best net rating), but Boston being 1st in 3P frequency and 27th in rim frequency creates volatility. However, it's the role players that are bombing threes, and the overall team frequency is down from last season. The Celtics have a beautifully spaced, 5-out offense and great ball movement. Quality threes are ideal shots.

The backcourt lacks dynamic shot creation. Jrue Holiday's 3P frequency is at an all-time high, masking his 20.7 percent turnover in PnR-- which ranks 76th among 77 qualifiers. The 33-year-old is raining in 42.0 percent of his threes, but his lack of advantage creation should be kept in mind because Derrick White's doesn't deliver that either. White's shooting progression (39.6 percent on 6.7 3PA/g) is awesome, but collapsing defenses isn't forté. Both are good passers.

Ultimately, Boston goes where Jayson Tatum takes them, but Kristaps Porzingis' self-creation is huge too. His spacing makes it easier for Tatum to get to his spots, kick out if needed, and get into the lane for finishes. Tatum's extension and body control are elite. The spacing creates for runways for Jaylen Brown's rim pressure. He adds another dimension by juicing tempo. 

Porzingis getting to the rim for 34.6 percent of his shots and converting at a 73.0 percent clip are both career highs. He stretches defenses and spares Al Horford's energy. Horford can step in, hit his spot-ups, and the defense won't regress during his 26.8 minutes per game. Porzingis' paint protection has graded excellently -- 51.6 percent opponent shooting (89th percentile). Boston's perimeter defense is similarly stout -- led by Tatum's 46.9 opponent eFG% outside the paint (85th percentile).

4. Phoenix Suns

Record: 27-20 (6th in WC)    Preseason O/U: 50.5 wins    Current O/U: 46.5

The Devin Booker/Bradley Beal/Grayson Allen/Kevin Durant/Jusuf Nurkic starting lineup owns a plus-13.2 net rating through a small sample size of 400 possessions. Denver's starting five has played 1,240 possessions together at a plus-12.6 rate, for example.  

Phoenix is mediocre on the glass and doesn't force turnovers, which ties into their ability to lose the possession battle if 3P volume isn't up to par (22nd in frequency). Durant and Allen (ankle) are having historically elite shooting seasons. Devin Booker deserves his flowers limiting turnovers and posting the 9th-highest assist percentage in the league, just below James Harden and just above Fred VanVleet. Booker averages 7.3 dimes per game.

Could Saddiq Bey be a buy-low candidate? Torrey Craig? Bring in a bulky wing by sending 2nds and re-routing Eric Gordon elsewhere? It would be pivotal if one of Nassir Little, Chimezie Metu, or Josh Okogie re-emerged as a consistent rotational contributor. Does Little really have no value as combo-forward with a solid track record under team control? I'd try to involve Milwaukee and Sacramento there, or Charlotte and Detroit.

5. Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 32-15 (2nd in EC)    Preseason O/U: 53.5 wins    Current O/U: 54.5

Giannis Antetokounmpo (career-high 64.6 TS%) is capable of beating teams himself. Can he, still-elite 35-year-old Brook Lopez, and a rising Khris Middleton carry this squad?

Middleton's days of getting to the line are over, but he's shooting well and doing it consistently -- 16.2 PPG in January, 17.3 PPG in December, 49.8 percent shooting combined. The methodology is there. He looks sharp in isolation. Malik Beasley (45.6 3P% on 6.1 3PA/g) is reliable and fighting defensively. Lopez is in a league of his own for protecting everything inside the arc: 

Milwaukee's 18th-ranked defense is plagued by the bench unit. Milwaukee needs new bodies, even with Jae Crowder returning from adductor/abdominal surgery on Jan. 17. MarJon Beauchamp is a viable sell. Andre Jackson shouldn't be readily available, although he, Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton have been gashed defensively. Saddiq Bey and Wesley Matthews? Delon Wright? Dennis Smith can catalyze a defense. Can Doc Rivers?

Increasing Milwaukee's PnR frequency from 14th in ballhandler possessions and 7th in roll man possessions is achievable, but if Damian Lillard isn't going to play better, the championship upside for this team is tough to see:

• Lillard in December: 26.3 points on 46.6/43.1/92.3 percent shooting, 6.9 assists, 2.34 AST/TO
• Lillard in January: 23.5 points on 38.9/28.3/92.2 percent shooting, 6.6 assists, 4.42 AST/TO 

Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez eventually wearing down is concerning. Lillard finding consistency will dictate Milwaukee's postseason run, but a wing would help.

6. New York Knicks

Record: 30-17 (4th in EC)    Preseason O/U: 44.5 wins    Current O/U: 50.5

Heat-check Brunson is lethal. Whether it's canning pull-up threes or winning with footwork and body control inside, Jalen Brunson is among the most dangerous players in the league when hot. 

OG Anunoby (elbow) is a seamless fit into New York's identity as a physically-imposing squad that can shoot. Lacking a superstar makes team identity critical. The Knicks are the league's best rebounding team on both ends, own the second-best defensive rating since Anunoby's debut, and have grown as a three-point shooting team (10th ranked 38.0 percent, up from 21st ranked 35.8 percent last year). 

A booming season from Donte DiVincenzo counteracts Josh Hart's regression to 31.5 percent shooting on 2.8 3PA/g. DiVincenzo fits the hyper-activity on the glass. This duo will coexist frequently with Julius Randle (shoulder) is out. Quentin Grimes is a team player, but he isn't fueling winning. He lacks the well-roundedness or X-Factor trait needed to impact the game. DiVincenzo's confidence is supreme right now.

Isaiah Hartenstein is conducive to winning. He's an amazing enabler of others, offers rim protection, defends in space, finishes inside, and brings selfless physicality. Across the past two seasons, his 46.4 screens per 100 possessions ranks in the 88th percentile league-wide, and he's generating 0.996 points per chance for the Knicks, which ranks in the 59th percentile. Can Precious Achiuwa continue providing reliable depth for New York?

Randle is set for a multi-week absence, which is killer because he was finally hitting threes (38.3 percent over last 10 games, 28.8 percent over first 36 games). Which Randle will return? Despite getting gashed defensively, he's a huge part of the Knicks' physical identity. This identity is capable of coaxing Boston into too many threes, capable of wearing down Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo and capable of fueling a Finals run if they return to pre-Randle-injury momentum.

7. Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 29-16 (3rd in EC)    Preseason O/U: 48.5 wins    Current O/U: 53.5

In past postseasons, Joel Embiid's jumper has failed the 76ers. He'll need to prove it in the playoffs, but Embiid is absolutely automatic from 16 feet and inward right now. Embiid is the new offensive engine. He will dribble down the floor, throw his body into you, turn, and swish a jumper. He's skilled Shaq. 

Embiid's MVP candidacy is propelled by Nick Nurse's coaching. Embiid is collapsing defenses and facilitating at new heights (5.8 assists per game). Tyrese Maxey is a nightly All-Star, although the playoffs will be a huge litmus test -- opponents scheming for him in a seven-game series will yield new challenges. 

Nicolas Batum has been excellent. Tobias Harris remains reliable on both ends. De'Anthony Melton (back) is an asset despite being one of the worst rim finishers in the league. Can I trust Robert Covington and Kelly Oubre? This is such an underwhelming supporting cast, but they're savvy and tough. I think Philadelphia needs more punch somehow.

The optics of a Miles Bridges trade are a dilemma, but he's the type of difference-maker to ascend Philadelphia. I like Royce O'Neale here, but doing business with Detroit is preferred. Monte Morris and Alec Burks as back-up initiators would fill a glaring hole. 

There is no way that Patrick Beverley and Paul Reed pick-and-roll should be a pillar of the offense when Embiid and Maxey sit. De'Anthony Melton (back) is among the worst rim finishers in the league, so he doesn't fully alleviate this issue. The books are clean moving forward, could a cheap gamble on a bad contract pay off -- Malcolm Brogdon or Marcus Smart? Embiid demands winning.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 32-15 (3rd in WC)    Preseason O/U: 44.5 wins    Current O/U: 55.5

Among all players with 600 possessions this season, the below image feels like unprecedented efficiency for Oklahoma City's star trio, especially at their ages. Ranked in order of points per possession:

Luguentz Dort has improved -- canning 40.2 percent of 4.7 3PA/g after entering 2023-24 with a career average of 33.2 percent. The next four members of the rotation are Josh Giddey, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe and Kenrich Williams. The latter two can factor into a playoff rotation with plug-and-play skills. Giddey is a wallflower defensively. Wallace is a rookie. None of the aforementioned cast are wings. The Thunder have a void. A splurge on Alex Caruso might be too duplicative with Dort. Royce O'Neale? The 2023-24 campaign should be taken seriously...having homecourt in the playoffs is a tough ask any given year.

Dial up Brooklyn. Mikal Bridges is ideal but unavailable. Cameron Johnson is expensive, but he could take Davis Bertans' matching-salary role for a future blockbuster. Nicolas Claxton would limit the spacing, but non-Holmgren minutes are a postseason weak spot. The Thunder are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Wendell Carter platoon? 

The energy of this squad shouldn't be jeopardized, but four first-round picks in 2024 and an abundance in the future must be cashed in! OKC is healthy, ranks 5th in offensive rating and 4th in defensive rating, while committing the second-fewest turnovers and forcing the most. It's impressive poise and impressive coaching from Mark Daigneault. 

9. Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 33-14 (1st in WC)    Preseason O/U: 45.5 wins    Current O/U: 55.5

The size and physicality of Minnesota, including sturdy/stellar defense from Anthony Edwards, is another strong identity. Squads like Dallas, for example, would suffer in a seven-game series. Do I trust the composure and decision-making of Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns? Even in playoff highlights last year, the shot selection was questionable. Rudy Gobert is back to being DPOY Rudy, but we've seen how far that got Utah. 

Mike Conley (hamstring) is rock-solid, and he's burying 43.9 percent of 5.3 3PA/g. The 36-year-old has logged 42 starts at 29.2 minutes per game, but his hamstring soreness is relevant. Minnesota can get creative with Naz Reid (12.4 PPG on 48.9 FG%, 41.3 3P%) in the frontcourt. Jaden McDaniels is plateauing as an offensive weapon, but clamping 1-through-4 defensively, hitting threes, and converting 66.7 percent of his shots at the rim en route to 11.0 PPG is plenty.

I foresee Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as a more earth-moving playoff force than Edwards, so Oklahoma City has the edge. Both players phenoms. Minnesota logged a well-earned win over OKC on Monday, but the Thunder's ability to buy at the deadline is powerful. Upgrading over Shake Milton and Jordan McLaughlin is the lone addressable roster hole for Minnesota. Adding a two-way combo guard or swingman is the pipe dream. The franchise is $2.5 million below the tax threshold.

10. Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 28-16 (5th in EC)    Preseason O/U: 51.5 wins    Current O/U: 50.5

Jarrett Allen has been revolutionary, averaging 19.0 points, 13.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists across his last six games. Isaac Okoro is limiting opponents to a 45.4 eFG% (92nd percentile) outside the paint. Mitchell is a star, and he's stepping up defensively. Can this team maintain the good while re-incorporating the dynamic skills of Darius Garland (jaw) and Even Mobley (knee)? 

Mobley looked sharp in 21 minutes Monday. Will there be a larger dose of Mobley staggering with Allen if Mobley's jumper isn't developing? Allen is providing the short-roll facilitation and halfcourt hub that was envisioned for Mobley. Allen's 14.4 percent assist rate is double any previous campaign of his career. An all-time high 32.0 percent of his shots are coming from the mid-range, where he's connecting on 54.1 percent. Disrupting Allen could be costly. The Cavaliers are 15-4 in their past 19 games. 

Mitchell with a defensive anchor to run PnR and a well-spaced floor around that duo yields good basketball. Sam Merrill has been just as valuable as Max Strus. Georges Niang has been acceptable in his 3&D role (more 3 than D). Craig Porter has been a plus contributor. Dean Wade is finally healthy, hitting 40.4 percent of 3.9 3PA/g while bringing versatile defense. 

Garland logged a 17.9 percent turnover rate in PnR prior to breaking his jaw -- which ranks 39th out of 44 qualifiers (190 PnR possessions) this season. Garland cutting down on mistakes and shooting proficiently are trends to monitor. Ditto for how Cleveland opts to re-incorporate Mobley -- his return to the league's top-rated defense over the past two weeks is powerful regardless.

Just missed the cut: Dallas and Indiana

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving (thumb) have the advantage over Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland (jaw), but Dallas is considerably smaller, and they are stuck in their style. Minnesota and Cleveland are more versatile teams.

Indiana's defense has been uplifted, and owning the league's best offense is a crowning achievement. The duo of Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) and Pascal Siakam have only played one game together, but the theory of this team is excellent -- although potentially too young collectively to be a real contender.