This article is part of our NBA Draft Chat series.
This is the second in a series of NBA Draft Chats over the next few weeks leading up to the big night on June 25. Feel free to submit questions or comments below, or get at the guys on Twitter.
Nick Whalen (@wha1en): Let's start with Cameron Payne out of Murray State. Reports Wednesday morning stated that, according to a scout, Payne is "no question" the highest-rising prospect on most draft boards. Is he the type of player who can come out of a small school and make a Damian Lillard-type of impact right away?
James Anderson (@RealJRAnderson): I think as long as he is rising into the 12-to-15 range, that makes sense. There are more examples of point guards from smaller schools becoming quality backups than "making it" like Lillard, but I suppose there's a chance Payne could be a quality starter. However, I see him as more of a two-way player than Lillard, kind of a jack of all trades. Regardless of need, I wouldn't take Payne ahead of Mario Hezonja, Frank Kaminsky, Stanley Johnson, Devin Booker, Kelly Oubre or Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.
Whalen: The not-so-quiet word on the street is that Payne has a promise from the Thunder at No. 14, so maybe they see him as the next Reggie Jackson -- a guy who can play both guard spots and is enough of a playmaker that he can facilitate the offense when Westbrook and/or Durant aren't on the floor. The Kings are also reportedly bringing Payne in for a private workout. Would it be a reach for them to take him at No. 6 over some of the names you just mentioned?
Anderson: If he gets popped at six, I'll take six shots of Goldschlager on draft night. I think the team that takes Payne over Tyus Jones will come to regret that pick.
Whalen: Six shots? Now I really hope the Kings are bold enough to make that pick. In our last draft chat, we covered how high you are on Jones. Is there anything about him, outside of his size, that concerns you at the next level?
Anderson: Well, I'm a two-way player snob, so he runs counter to that stance. He was a DH in college. NBA teams are smart enough to hide players like that as long as they are surrounded by the right players, but I do get a little uneasy pumping up a guy who is a sieve on the defensive end.
Whalen: Jones did struggle defensively, but if there's a positive there, it's that it didn't seem to be an effort issue. His lack of size and physicality on that end resulted in a lot of trouble in the pick and roll, but that's something that can be fixed - or at least improved - with a year of NBA conditioning. If you had to compare Jones to a current NBA point guard, who would it be?
Anderson: He reminds me a lot of Chris Paul in the way that he runs an offense, where he is in total control all the time. However, as we just mentioned, Jones can't hold Paul's jock on defense. Tony Parker with a better jump shot is a comp that I'm OK with, but in his prime, I think Jones will also average more assists than Parker did in his best years. Granted, there were things Parker did around the rim and breaking down a defense that few point guards have ever matched, so it's far from a perfect comparison. In the end, I just think Jones is a winner who can succeed on the biggest stage. I hope he gets drafted by an organization that makes a habit of getting to the playoffs.
Whalen: I want to talk about Karl-Anthony Towns -- or is it just Karl Towns? Do we have an official ruling on whether he's going to go by Karl or Karl Anthony in the NBA?
Anderson: For everyone's sanity, I hope it's Karl. Most places I've seen list him as Karl. Either way, it's not a very marketable name. He needs a dope nickname.
Whalen: That's true. He certainly won't be one of those first-name guys like Shaq, Kobe, LeBron, etc. Not too many Karl's floating around pro sports these days. Times have changed.
Anderson: So let's talk about his game. I honestly still haven't decided who the No. 1 guy on my draft board is, but the overwhelming majority of people have Towns there.
Whalen: I'm sure you saw the Towns workout videos that made the Internet rounds earlier this week. Obviously, his athleticism was off the charts, but the biggest takeaway was how smooth he looked as a three-point shooter. The video only shows him hitting catch-and-shoot threes with no defense, but do you buy that he's added that to his game to the point that it will be a weapon for him right away as a rookie?
Anderson: Well, you could find videos before last year's draft of Elfrid Payton burying mid-range J after mid-range J, so I wouldn't put much stock into that. Most big guys in the league can hit open threes in practice, but being confident enough to take them in a game and living with the consequences of having your best rebounder out by the three-point line makes the equation pretty murky on how valuable that is.
Whalen: Agreed. I think people would be surprised how many NBA big men could step out and stroke it from beyond the arc in practice. It's completely different in a game setting. I would be surprised if Towns consistently finds himself on the perimeter. That's not to say three-point shooting isn't a valuable skill, but I think, at least early in his career, whatever team lands him will want to focus on developing him into a more advanced paint scorer before worrying about his outside game.
Anderson: I don't think his ability to hit three-pointers would weigh into whether or not I would take him. It would probably come down to the one-on-one interviews the teams have with him, which of course we're not privy to.
Whalen: It seems like Towns is gaining momentum as the draft approaches, while the other prized big man, Jahlil Okafor, is keeping the status quo. I haven't heard that Okafor is slipping down draft boards, but it also seems like Towns has more positive momentum. How surprised would you be if Towns is NOT the pick by Minnesota at No. 1?
Anderson: I actually wouldn't be surprised at all. I think the two players are very close, and I think D'Angelo Russell and Justise Winslow should be in that mix as well, so I wouldn't fault any NBA team for ranking those four in any order. Towns might be atop 20-25 teams' draft boards, but I highly doubt it's unanimous.
Whalen: So you give an advantage to Russell over Emmanuel Mudiay as an overall prospect? What about Russell gives him that edge?
Anderson: I just think he can be a superstar. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Russell was discussed as a top-10 overall player in four or five years. If he were a baseball prospect, all of his tools would grade out as plus-plus. Mudiay is great at some things like passing, breaking down a defense and finishing at the rack, but Russell is literally great at everything.
Whalen: One of the knocks on Russell is that he can be somewhat of a loose cannon on the offensive end. He's a bad-shot taker but also a bad-shot maker. I actually think that's an underrated skill, especially for a ball-dominant guard. In the NBA, everyone can make open shots. The thing that really separates the best guards is the ability to hit difficult shots under duress, and Russell is probably the best player in the draft at doing so.
Anderson: Well, let's not forget that the Ohio State team he was on was hot garbage. I don't see him taking shots to the detriment of his team in the NBA. You're right though, you need a guy on your team who can create and make tough shots in the final minutes.
Whalen: He's one of those guys that doesn't seem to have a conscience when it comes to taking those shots, and that's a great thing. He went 3-of-19 from the floor in his final college game in the tournament against Arizona and, watching the game, you'd never know. His game didn't change just because he was missing shots. And he still finished with seven rebounds and six assists with only one turnover.
Anderson: When you're that overmatched from a talent standpoint, you're not going to be passing to Shannon Scott and Jae'Sean Tate. Plus, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Stanley Johnson were suffocating him all game.
Whalen: Speaking of Hollis-Jefferson, can he be more than a defensive stopper at the NBA level?
Anderson: Yes. He can be a defensive stopper who also rebounds and finishes at an elite level. I don't want to say he'll never be able to shoot threes, but it would almost behoove him to just focus on his strengths and not change who he is. Tony Allen with more rebounding and more offense is a $60 million player.
Whalen: I think he could benefit from falling into the latter end of the first round and going to a team where he's not going to be asked to do more than he's capable of right away.
Anderson: Right. I want him, Tyus Jones and Frank Kaminsky to end up in the right organizations.
Whalen: Kaminsky, especially, is a guy whose career arc could swing pretty drastically based upon where he lands.
Anderson: Yes. I think Detroit or Miami would be good spots for him because of the coaches. Indiana and Utah, possibly, as well.
Whalen: Indiana and Utah just scream Frank Kaminsky.
Anderson: Miami would be interesting, but they really don't scream Kaminsky.
Whalen: If there's one team/city that doesn't scream Frank Kaminsky, it's Miami. But he would be an interesting complement to Hassan Whiteside. Miami doesn't really have any reserve bigs, unless we're counting Josh McRoberts, who can step out and handle the ball the way Kaminsky can. Whiteside, Haslem and Andersen are all defenders first and limited to making their living rebounding/diving to the rim on offense. And just picture Kaminsky in those "White Hot" alternates. The women of South Beach won't complain if he's the pick.
Anderson: Haha. It is a pretty good fit from a basketball standpoint. The one thing that team completely lacked last year was outside shooting. I hope you're not forgetting Bosh, though,
Whalen: Right, Bosh obviously brings that same catch-and-shoot ability from a big man. Sticking with the Wisconsin theme, do you have any gauge whatsoever on what the Bucks are thinking at No. 17? Jason Kidd is on the record saying they'd like to add a shooter. Kelly Oubre seems like a natural fit if he's on the board. Do you think he makes it out of the lottery?
Anderson: Well I was talking with a Bucks fan the other day, and you can only say "he's not falling to them at 17" about so many guys before the numbers just don't add up. I would certainly prefer Booker if I were the Bucks, and I think he and Oubre have similar chances of being there (less than 30 percent).
Whalen: Booker is the other hot name in Bucks circles, but I think I'd prefer Oubre. Booker probably has the higher floor, but Oubre's athleticism is a big selling point, and he's a better slasher, which is something the Bucks sorely need.
Anderson: I don't want a slasher if I'm Milwaukee. I want a guy who buries threes and is OK with that being his job. Booker is a guy who could win a three-point shootout.
Whalen: Voshon Lenard won a three-point shootout.
Anderson: The Bucks could use Voshon. I've said it before, but the pre-draft measurables are extremely similar between Booker and Klay Thompson. Milwaukee has defense and slashing, it needs a guy who sits behind the three-point line and stays there.
Anderson: Also the gap between Oubre and Booker as shooters exists. There's a chance Oubre could just be a 36-to-38 percent guy in the NBA.
Whalen: That's true, but I think that's the trade-off when you consider he's a better slasher. There's no doubt Booker is the better catch-and-shoot guy, but it depends if a team is OK with him being somewhat of a specialist on the offensive end. Assuming the Bucks bring back Khris Middleton, I think he already fills that knockdown catch-and-shoot guy role. 98.2% of his made threes in 2014-15 were assisted. He struggled when he was forced to put the ball on the floor. The Bucks' single biggest need might be a player who can manufacture looks at the end of the shot clock. That's was the glaring weak spot after the Brandon Knight trade.
Anderson: That's what Parker is for. No player they get at 17 will be able to do that next year or even two years from now, in my opinion.
Whalen: That's probably true. Landing a true shot-creator that late certainly shouldn't be an expectation.
Anderson: I actually think Jones is a nice fit for them, too. Not to mention a much more realistic player to be on the board.
Whalen: Jones would be interesting, but they're already locked into three point guards next season, so I'm not sure how realistic that would be. I briefly mentioned Khris Middleton. He's a second-round guy who pretty quickly turned into a very good NBA player. Is there a guy or two who's currently projected in the 25-to-40 range who you think could end up being a top 3 or 4 guy on a good team in a few years?
Anderson: Delon Wright and Jarell Martin are the two guys I think about there. Most years I have some names I'm more confident in for that question, but I think this draft is very loaded in the 1-to-20 range, but it falls off after that.
Anderson: Anybody you like later in the draft?
Whalen: Norman Powell from UCLA is one. J.P. Tokoto is another, though I'm a little bit more on the fence with him. I think Tokoto's game is much better suited for the NBA game than college. And Powell reminds me a lot of Arron Afflalo, another former UCLA guy.
Anderson: I thought about saying Tokoto.
Whalen: He might be the best athlete in the draft, but what really impressed me was his passing ability.
Anderson: Yeah, he's a guy who could have a 5x5 game.
Whalen: Exactly. Might never be a 15ppg scorer, but he'll give you the rebounds, passing and defensive versatility to make up for it. The biggest thing for him will be developing a reliable enough jumper to stay on the floor as a rookie.
Anderson: I like Hollis-Jefferson's J more than Tokoto's, so that tells you where he's at.
Whalen: If you watched him at North Carolina this past season it was obvious how much he shied away from shooting the ball. The thing is, he's such a smooth athlete that you'd like think he'll be able to figure it out. ("Tell that to DeMar DeRozan" - the Raptors)
Anderson: He won't be out of the league in three years, I can almost guarantee that.
Whalen: Fill in the blank: In three seasons, Montrezl Harrell will ________.
Anderson: Be seeing 12-20 minutes off the bench for a middling team. Trevor Booker-esque.
Whalen: Could not agree more. Trevor Booker is perfect. I love Harrell at the college level, but I don't think he's a great NBA fit. Shoutout Jason Maxiell.
Anderson: Yeah, the Faried comps are easy to make until you remember just how many rebounds Faried was getting in college.
Whalen: Exactly. Faried wasn't just an energy guy in college, he was the best rebounder in the country. Going back, no one averaged as many rebounds per game (14.5) as Faried did his senior year since Tim Duncan in 1996-97.
Anderson: So pick a guy who will probably go in the lottery who you see busting? *double checks spelling of Porzingis*
Whalen: I'm going to refrain from naming an international player here, because it's just so difficult to project those guys. But I'm not as high on Willie Cauley-Stein as most draft people seem to be. That's not to say I'm predicting he'll be a bust, but I think he's among the players with the highest bust potential. And for what it's worth, a video of him hitting a few jumpers isn't enough to convince me he's developed into a reliable shooter over the last month.
Anderson: Yeah, it's so tough to take a defensive specialist, even if he's a rim-protector like WCS, over guys like Winslow or Johnson. Kaminsky vs. WCS is a much closer debate for me, and I think I'd lean Frank. For the record, I like Hezonja and don't like Porzingis, based on some grainy footage I've seen.
Whalen: I really don't know what to think about either of those guys until I have a chance to see them in an NBA setting. Jan Vesely was a grainy film legend.
Anderson: And Vesely is my comp for Porzingis
Anderson: When you see European big men running the court in ways that big men in the NBA never do, my bust radar starts going berserk.
Whalen: Haha, exactly. Someone is going to take a chance on them, but in this draft it's especially tough given who you're leaving on the board if you go with a relative unknown. That said, it's important to note that teams know infinitely more about these guys than we do.
