This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We're set for a solid six-game slate Saturday evening that is fairly light in terms of short-term injuries, and which, as of late morning, doesn't have any of those players ruled out. There's also only one team on a back-to-back set, so fatigue shouldn't be a prominent factor.
Slate Overview
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Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, 12/7 @ 11:00 a.m ET:
Oklahoma City Thunder (-8.5) at New Orleans Pelicans (O/U: 225.0)
Denver Nuggets (-14) at Washington Wizards (O/U: 233.5)
Dallas Mavericks (-8.5) at Toronto Raptors (O/U: 235.5)
Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks (-9) (O/U: 226.0)
Memphis Grizzlies at *Boston Celtics (-6.5) (O/U: 239.5)
Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat (-6) (O/U: 221.5)
*Denotes team on second game of back-to-back set
We've certainly had more aesthetically pleasing point spreads than the array we have Saturday, but at least there's only one double-digit line as of late morning. All of the other games could certainly play out a bit more competitively than the numbers indicate, especially with a couple of the bigger favorites in the Thunder and Mavericks in a road setting.
Projected totals are about standard, with all of the mover 220 points and half of the games sporting figures comfortably above 230 points. The fact the Wizards, Raptors and Grizzlies are all on the slate helps boost their games to the highest projections of the night, and the Memphis-Boston battle offers the best combination of spread and total.
Injury Situations to Monitor
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Jalen Brunson, NYK (back): QUESTIONABLE
If Brunson can't suit up Saturday, Miles McBride, Tyler Kolek and Cameron Payne (elbow) would be candidates for increased minutes while the usage of the rest of the starting five would see a nice bump.
Kristaps Porzingis, BOS (lower leg): GTD
If Porzingis sits out a second straight game, Al Horford will likely remain in the starting five.
Jamal Murray, DEN (hamstring): QUESTIONABLE
If Murray can't play Saturday, Russell Westbrook could draw a spot start at point guard, and the remainder of the first unit should see a rise in usage to varying degree.
Jakob Poeltl, TOR (illness): QUESTIONABLE
If Poeltl isn't able to suit up, Jonathan Mogbo and Bruno Fernando could handle the majority of minutes at center.
Other notable injuries:
Immanuel Quickley, TOR (elbow): OUT
Zion Williamson, NOP (hamstring): OUT
Kevin Durant, PHO (ankle): OUT
Jusuf Nurkic, PHO (thigh): OUT
Kyle Kuzma, WAS (ribs): OUT
Malcolm Brogdon, WAS (knee): OUT
Cameron Payne, NYK (elbow): QUESTIONABLE
Kelly Olynyk, TOR (back): QUESTIONABLE
Aaron Gordon, DEN (calf): PROBABLE
Jimmy Butler, MIA (knee): PROBABLE
Elite Players
We have four players with five-figure salaries on Saturday's slate: Nikola Jokic ($12,400), Luka Doncic ($11,700), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,700) and Jayson Tatum ($10,400).
Jokic has back-to-back 73+ FD-point tallies and is essentially a double-double – at minimum – waiting to happen. While he is the biggest piece on the largest favorite of the night, he's still capable of delivering a significant return with abbreviated minutes, and he could be taking the floor without Jamal Murray.
Doncic "dipped" to 53 FD points in his most recent game Thursday after scoring over 69 in his first two games back from a wrist injury, but the latter figure is within his range of outcomes on any night.
Gilgeous-Alexander now has a nine-game streak of 50 FD points or more, and the Thunder-Pelicans game could be more competitive than projected on paper.
Tatum will be on the second night of a back-to-back set but is now averaging 50.1 FD points per game on the season after going for 52.5 against the Bucks over 37 minutes on Friday night. He also sat out Boston's previous game Wednesday, so the effect of the second straight night of play may not be as pronounced.
Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
Scottie Barnes, TOR ($9,600)
Barnes has scored over 40 FD points in four straight games and is averaging 44.8 per contest for the season, with his ceiling one that's worthy of a higher salary.
Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK ($9,400)
Towns may play without Jalen Brunson, which, if confirmed, would only make the big man even more popular. The fact he has a floor in the low 40s and is averaging 48.3 FD points per game on the season should keep him in plenty of lineups regardless.
Cade Cunningham, DET ($9,300)
Cunningham just scored 55.8 FD points against the Celtics on Wednesday and has had two full days between games, which should help keep him highly rostered Saturday.
Devin Booker, PHO ($9,200)
Booker will continue playing without Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkic on Saturday, which should lead to an elevated roster rate.
Tyler Herro, MIA ($7,600)
Herro is right up there with Jimmy Butler as a top source of offense on the Heat and has three tallies of over 40 FD points in his last six games alone, which should make him a very popular play at his reasonable salary.
Key Values
Dereck Lively, DAL at TOR ($5,600)
Lively and Derrick Gafford are sharing minutes at center, but the former is the starter when healthy. Lively checks into Saturday averaging an impressive 27.2 FD points per contest over the last 12 games, a sample in which he's put up a well-rounded 8.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 2.0 blocks per contest. The second-year big may be facing a shorthanded Raptors frontcourt Saturday if Jakob Poeltl is sidelined with his illness, and Toronto is already allowing the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating to centers (35.5), along with an Eastern Conference-high 59.8 FD points per game to fives. Additionally, the Raps are giving up the sixth-most blocks per game (6.1) and fifth-most points in the paint per home contest (51.6), two more figures that brighten Lively's outlook.
Christian Braun, DEN at WAS ($5,400)
Braun has mostly made good on his opportunity with the starting shooting guard role this season, averaging 28.6 FD points per contest and shooting a blistering 57.1 percent, including 43.4 percent from behind the arc. The third-year wing has a floor in the low 20s when it comes to FD points, and he's flashed some appealing upside with six tallies of over 32 FD points so far this season. The Wizards could well coax one of his higher-percentile outputs, as Washington is surrendering 40.4 percent three-point shooting to two-guards, along with the second-most FD points per game to the position (47.5) in the last 15 contests.
Grayson Allen, PHO at MIA ($4,900)
As noted in Booker's entry earlier, the Suns will continue without both Durant and Nurkic on Saturday, a scenario in which Allen sports a 21.7 percent usage rate and averages 32.2 FD points per 36 minutes. The veteran sharpshooter just posted 40.2 FD points across 30 minutes in a second-unit role against the Pelicans on Thursday, and he also has tallies of 24.5 and 28.3 within his last four games. Allen's upside when he has the hot hand and enough minutes to work with his well established, and the Heat also checks in conceding a robust 42.4 FD points per game to two-guards.
ALSO CONSIDER: Ochai Agbaji, TOR vs. DAL ($4,500)
