This article is part of our The Prospect Post series.
There has been some chatter about the 2015 draft being a six-player draft, essentially lampooning the Kings for passing on the last of those six players -- Emmanuel Mudiay -- and taking Willie Cauley-Stein instead. While I am all for making fun of the Kings for doing stupid stuff and am inclined to agree that taking Cauley-Stein with the sixth pick was shortsighted, Mudiay was just one of a number of players who would have made more sense with that pick, and he may not have been the clear top choice there.
Through seven games he is averaging 4.3 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.4 three-pointers while playing 30.1 minutes per game. That's the good news. The bad news is that he has taken 94 shots and made just 31 of them (33 percent). His true shooting percentage would be below 40 percent if he weren't somehow shooting 37 percent from three-point range, as he hasn't been great shakes from the free-throw line either (65.4 percent). He's also second in the league in turnovers per game (4.9). The rest of the top four is James Harden, Russell Westbrook and John Wall, so that in itself is not a reason to criticize, but unlike the other three, Mudiay is not playing at an All-Star level, so it's a worse look on him.
The root of Mudiay's shooting woes is his frequency and ineffectiveness on pull-up jumpers. Half of his attempts this season have been pull-ups, and he has
There has been some chatter about the 2015 draft being a six-player draft, essentially lampooning the Kings for passing on the last of those six players -- Emmanuel Mudiay -- and taking Willie Cauley-Stein instead. While I am all for making fun of the Kings for doing stupid stuff and am inclined to agree that taking Cauley-Stein with the sixth pick was shortsighted, Mudiay was just one of a number of players who would have made more sense with that pick, and he may not have been the clear top choice there.
Through seven games he is averaging 4.3 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.4 three-pointers while playing 30.1 minutes per game. That's the good news. The bad news is that he has taken 94 shots and made just 31 of them (33 percent). His true shooting percentage would be below 40 percent if he weren't somehow shooting 37 percent from three-point range, as he hasn't been great shakes from the free-throw line either (65.4 percent). He's also second in the league in turnovers per game (4.9). The rest of the top four is James Harden, Russell Westbrook and John Wall, so that in itself is not a reason to criticize, but unlike the other three, Mudiay is not playing at an All-Star level, so it's a worse look on him.
The root of Mudiay's shooting woes is his frequency and ineffectiveness on pull-up jumpers. Half of his attempts this season have been pull-ups, and he has made just 25.5 percent. The most concerning aspect of this is that 68 percent of his pull-ups have been inside the three-point line, and his conversion rate on those is just 21.9 percent. Extrapolated out, this means that 34 percent of his shots are of a variety that he is making at just over a 20 percent clip. That would be like if LeBron James took 34 percent of his shots from half court.
View post on imgur.comIt seems obvious to say that he should be getting to the rack on plays like this instead of settling for the pull-up, but that hasn't been working so well either. He's shooting 35.7 percent from three feet and in and 36.8 percent between three and 10 feet from the hoop. Throw in the fact that he's making less than two-thirds of his free-throw attempts, and it's not as appealing of a proposition as it may sound. Still, given his role on the team, it seems more likely that he improves his efficiency near the hoop, as he clearly has some touch:
View post on imgur.comThe most impressive revelation when looking at Mudiay's shooting chart is that he is shooting 45.5 percent on catch-and-shoot three-pointers. This seems like a legitimate plus skill, but unfortunately it may be the most difficult skill for him to take full advantage of. He is the point guard on a team devoid of quality ball-handlers, so it's rare for him to be able to just post in a corner or on the wing for the bulk of a possession and wait for the ball to find him. It's also worth noting that he has an extraordinary amount of jump in his shot, relying on his legs more than almost any other guard in the league, so it seems valid to wonder if his overall three-point percentage will drop as the season progresses and his legs start to tire.
As a passer, Mudiay certainly excels in some areas, particularly on driving and dishing in traffic.
View post on imgur.comWhere a lot of his turnover issues stem from is trying to force the issue on outlet passes, or simply being careless on kick-outs, attempted alley-oops and skip passes in the halfcourt.
View post on imgur.comIt's far too early to say he can't correct some of the careless turnovers, and he certainly has the passing gene to be able to create a handful of easy buckets for his teammates each night, so the turnover issue should probably just be chalked up to growing pains and a flaw that will look like less of a flaw if the rest of his game improves.
He also has some impressive physical tools that allow him to be an above average defender at the position.
View post on imgur.comThe best way for Mudiay to maximize his offensive game this season, as he continues to put time in on his jump shot, is to make every effort to get to the rack and get to the line, and do his best to cut down on pull-up two-pointers, even though those are the exact shots the defense will try to give him. Fortunately he is on the Nuggets, and not, say, the Lakers, so he will be given 30-plus minutes per game for the rest of the season, and fantasy owners won't have to worry about a prolonged cold stretch costing him run.
It's too early to say Mudiay will or won't be a top-6 player from this draft class, but he has the potential to be just that if he can learn to take better shots and eliminate some of the mental errors on the offensive end -- challenges any player his age who was thrust into such a significant role would face.
The reason I am hesitant to say Mudiay was absolutely the player the Kings should have drafted at No. 6 is that his position, point guard, is so deep that in order to be a top-8 player there he would need to essentially hit his ceiling. I am on record saying that D'Angelo Russell has the potential to be a top-3 point guard in the league, which is why taking him at No. 2 made sense. Justise Winslow and Devin Booker would have been preferable over Mudiay (and Cauley-Stein) because special two guards are much tougher to draft and develop, and point guard has been proven to be no more necessary than any other position in terms of putting together a championship team.
