This article is part of our NBA Trade Tracker series.
We usually don't see offseason trades before the draft, but there are a few teams that simply couldn't wait to start filling holes and unloading contracts.
Last Thursday, hours before Game 4 of the NBA Finals, the Detroit Pistons traded the non-guaranteed contracts of Caron Butler and Shawne Williams to the Milwaukee Bucks for Ersan Ilyasova, the star-crossed stretch forward, famous for his ability to take charges:
Side note: My wife strongly recommends that you watch this video on mute, as "Bodies" by Drowning Pool is, in her words, "the musical scourge of our generation."
Editor's note: While I am not a Drowning Pool fan, the choice of "Bodies" for the soundtrack on this compilation is both magnificently ironic and perfectly befitting of the content. The only other song that I think would be equally ironic and befitting would be Michael Jackson's Heal the World. Tell us what song you'd use in the comments below.
Here's a breakdown of how the trade impacts the fantasy value of the players involved:
Ersan Ilyasova
"Ersan Ilyasova is a player we have coveted since we got to Detroit," Pistons coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy told ESPN.com. "[He's] a proficient 3-point shooter that can stretch the floor."
If we read between the lines a little, it seems clear that Van Gundy invisions Ilyasova filling the "Ryan Anderson" role as a compliment to Andre Drummond who is going into year 2 of filling the "Dwight Howard" role in Van Gundy's system.
Although both Anderson and Ilyasova have been used as stretch forwards in their careers, they aren't exactly interchangeable pieces. Look at their per possession three point shooting over their careers (courtesy of basketball-reference):
Anderson | FGA | 3PA | 3P% | ORtg | Ilyasova | FGA | 3PA | 3P% | ORtg | |
2010-11 | 19.4 | 12.6 | 39.3% | 122 | 2010-11 | 18.0 | 4.3 | 29.8% | 105 | |
2011-12 | 20.8 | 11.6 | 39.3% | 124 | 2011-12 | 18.5 | 3.5 | 45.5% | 118 | |
2012-13 | 24.2 | 12.1 | 38.2% | 114 | 2012-13 | 20.2 | 5.4 | 44.4% | 114 | |
2013-14 | 23.2 | 10.7 | 40.9% | 120 | 2013-14 | 20.5 | 4.6 | 28.2% | 103 | |
2014-15 | 22.9 | 11.3 | 34.0% | 109 | 2014-15 | 21.5 | 7.3 | 38.9% | 111 | |
Average | 22.1 | 11.7 | 38.3% | 118 | Average | 19.7 | 5.0 | 37.4% | 110 |
Over the past five seasons, more than 50 percent of Anderson's field goal attempts have been three-point shots, while only about 25 percent of Ilyasova's shot attempts have come from deep. Additionally, Anderson's three-point percentage each season has hovered tightly around his five-year average of 38 percent, while Ilyasova has two seasons above the 44 percent mark and two seasons below the 30 percent mark, an almost unbelievable range of peaks and valleys. As a result, Anderson has been worth roughly eight more points per 100 possessions than Ilyasova over the past five seasons.
The question that fantasy owners have to answer is whether this difference in offensive production was due to skill or to system. Those who believe Ilyasova can't fill Anderson's shoes will point to the fact that Anderson has two finishes in the top-50 in fantasy in his career, once with the Magic and once with the Pelicans, an indication that he isn't just the product of a single, advantageous system.
Fantasy owners who believe Ilyasova can be Ryan Anderson 2.0 will point to the fact that prior to joining the Magic, Anderson only attempted 7.7 threes per 100 possessions, and then ballooned to 12.1 threes per 100 possessions in his first season in Van Gundy's system. Last season, Ilyasova attempted 7.3 threes per 100 possessions. Is he due for a big jump under Van Gundy?
My take is this: few players in the league are as prolific as Anderson at hoisting three-pointers, so its probably unfair to expect Ilyasova to match Anderson's 12 or so attempts per 100 possessions, at least initially. At the same time, Anthony Tolliver took 10.2 three-pointers per 100 possessions last season with the Pistons, more than double the 4.2 threes per 100 possessions he took while on the Timberwolves just four seasons ago. As a result, I expect Ilyasova to average a career-high number of three-point attempts per game next season.
Assuming Ilyasova hoists nine three-pointers per 100 possessions next season, and assuming he is able to convert them at his five-year average of 37.4 percent (a complete guess given the variability of his 3Pt% over his career), then his fantasy stats next season would look something like this:
Ilyasova | FG% | FT% | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | PTS |
2015-16 Proj | 46% | 76% | 2.0 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 13.9 |
This stat line assumes Ilyasova will play 30 minutes per game, which is right in between his career high of 28 mpg with the Bucks and Ryan Anderson's 32 mpg in his last season with Van Gundy. Ilyasova's stat line above would have made him the 62nd best fantasy player last season, with the majority of his value coming from his three-point makes. Ranking 62nd would be a career-best fantasy ranking for Ilyasova and would represent a significant improvement over his fantasy rank of 165th in 2014-15. His projection becomes even rosier if we bump his three-point attempts to 11 per 100 possessions. Ilyasova's projection would then make him the 52nd best fantasy player.
Drafting Ilyasova is a risky proposition. He's had injuries and been inconsistent through much of his career, playing more than 60 games just once over the past five seasons. Ilyasova projects to derive most of his fantasy value from a category (three-pointers) that he's struggled with for two of the past five seasons, illustrating his streaky tendencies. However, if things go as Van Gundy plans, there's a legitimate chance that Ilyasova could be a top-50 to 60 fantasy player next season. Near the end of the fantasy draft, he's exactly the type of player that sharp fantasy owners should target.
Though the Pistons could still pursue Greg Monroe in free agency, it's highly unlikely they re-sign him given that Ilyasova fits Van Gundy's system better. If Monroe shocks the world and returns to the Pistons, Ilyasova's value would become much more suspect, because his role would be more obfuscated from game to game.
Caron Butler and Shawne Williams
As I mentioned at the start of this article, the Bucks acquired the non-guaranteed contracts of Caron Butler and Shawne Williams. It seems likely that one or both players will be waived before they ever play a game for the Bucks. As a result there isn't much fantasy impact on the Bucks' end of this deal. Jabari Parker should eat up most of the minutes that Ersan played last season (for more on his projection, go here).
The reason the Bucks made this move was to free up additional cap space for free agency this summer. The Bucks, and their spiffy new uniforms, should have roughly $22 million in cap space. Some of that money will likely be used to retain Khris Middleton, but they should also be able to add at least one more major piece via free agency or trade. I, for one, think Roy Hibbert would be a perfect fit as the defensive anchor in Jason Kidd's system.
Would you like to know how Ilyasova would rank at a different level of playing time or with different three-point production? Please leave a comment below, or contact me on twitter @MarcFRoberts.
