This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Alex Barutha
LeBron James over 2.5 threes + Nikola Jokic over 1.5 threes parlay (+303) -- DraftKings (12:56 PM CT)
LeBron continues to play passively, staying around the perimeter and not driving to the rack. Even when he does look to drive, the Suns are comfortable putting a wall up since the Lakers' shooters are struggling in the series. LeBron has taken 16 threes in the series, and I expect that rate to continue Thursday. For Jokic, it makes sense to continue dragging Jusuf Nurkic and Enes Kanter out to the perimeter since neither is quick on their feet. Jokic has taken 11 threes in the series, so it wouldn't be shocking to see him make two in Game 3.
Nick Whalen
Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 (-112) at MIA -- DraftKings (12:45 PM CT)
I think Miami can take a game in this series, but the way Milwaukee is rolling right now, it's hard not to pick the Bucks. It felt like Milwaukee exorcised a major demon in Game 1, and the Bucks played much more freely in Game 2. There shouldn't be a ton of pressure in Game 3, and while Milwaukee probably won't shoot the lights out like it did on Monday, the Antetokounmpo-Middleton-Holiday trio is too much for Miami to contain.
LA Lakers -7.0 (-110) vs. PHO -- DraftKings
This number is higher than I expected, but it's likely a reflection of Chris Paul's vastly diminished impact in Game 2. If Paul is healthier, then I like Phoenix to hang tough and cover this. But with only one day between games, that feels like a very big if. I didn't love what I saw from the Lakers in Game 2, but the shooting has to come around eventually, and if even one of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Wesley Matthews or Kyle Kuzma can hit a few threes, LA should be in fine shape.
Dennis Schroder OVER 14.5 points (-113) vs. PHO -- DraftKings
Schroder didn't look like himself down the stretch, or in Game 1, but he finally broke out with a much better performance in Game 2. Schroder's shooting still comes and goes on a night-to-night basis, but I liked what I saw from him Tuesday night from an aggressiveness standpoint. With the other Lakers role players struggling, Schroder should be able to get to 15 points.
Deandre Ayton OVER 14.5 points (-127) vs. LAL -- DraftKings
This number feels like a trap after Games 1 and 2, but I'm willing to walk right into it. Ayton hasn't dominated to the level that his numbers would imply (he's 21-of-24 from the field), but the Lakers' wildly overaggressive trapping has led to a flurry of easy dunks and layups. Unless the Lakers switch up their scheme (unlikely after a Game 2 win), Ayton should continue to feast on Marc Gasol and Andre Drummond.
Ken Crites
Giannis Antetokounmpo UNDER 28.5 points at MIA (-111) -- BetMGM (1:32 PM CT)
The reason the Bucks are doing well is Giannis has a better supporting cast than last year. In particular, Jrue Holiday is wildly outperforming last year's effort from Eric Bledsoe. So Antetokounmpo doesn't have to carry the load as much as he did last year. Also, expect Miami to get a boost from the home crowd. Tonight is Miami's last chance to make this a series. I don't see an Eric Spoelstra team giving up easily.
Jacob Lebowitz
Damian Lillard OVER 8.5 Assists (-105) vs. DEN -- BetMGM (2:42 PM CT)
Lillard has been a stud assisting the ball against Denver all season, especially in this first-round matchup. On the season, the guard is dishing out 9.3 assists a game against the Nuggets, and he's achieved double-digit assist performances in both playoff games this year. In Games 1 and 2, Lillard posted insane scoring nights with 42- and 34-point performances, so expect Denver to focus on slowing down Lillard's scoring ability and force him to pass the ball, where he can then get his assists. This game should be close and high-scoring like the first two, so the 30-year-old will likely get over his assists line once again.
Goran Dragic OVER 16.5 Points (-113) vs. MIL -- DraftKings
Dragic has been one of the most consistent scorers against Milwaukee all season. He's gotten over 17 points in four of their five matchups, including the postseason. In Game 2, even after only playing 24 minutes, he was able to score 18 points in a blowout loss. In a significant Game 3 at home for Miami, the Heat will need scorers, especially off the bench, so expect the guard to reach at least 17 points.
