This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
Saturday's compact three-game slate requires us to take a more unusual strategy for building lineups, given the significant narrowing of choices. The three contests are interesting, as well, as the Celtics are still fighting to potentially claim the top spot in the East and have a golden opportunity to climb within two games of it by defeating the pace-setting Raptors. Meanwhile, the Heat need to keep on winning, and the Nets, with their breakneck pace of play, have proven to be no pushover. Finally, the Warriors can no longer ascend to the top spot in the West, but they're looking to string together some wins after injuries -- and most recently, a Kevin Durant ejection -- have sunk them in multiple games. With plenty of intrigue afoot, let's get right into looking for where the smart money should go Saturday.
GUARD
Kyle Lowry, TOR at BOS ($14,900): Lowry is averaging a solid 21.0 points, 5.5 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals across 28.0 minutes in two games against the Celtics this season, and Boston comes in allowing 47.8 fantasy points per game to point guards over the last five, a notable uptick from their 38.5 season figure. Lowry has been outproducing his current price on a regular basis lately, as well, as he's scored over 40 fantasy points thrice and over 60 once over the last six games, while posting solid tallies of 32.00 and 37.75 fantasy points in the other two contests during that span. Just as important, his shot has been clicking of late, as he's draining 53.4 percent of his 11.6 shot attempts over the last five, including 58.5 percent of 8.2 shots from behind the arc. In what should be a wire-to-wire affair with playoff implications, Lowry should see a robust load of minutes in the mid-30s, as he frequently has lately.
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SAC vs. GS ($10,000): Bogdanovic finally snapped back to his previously strong level of production Thursday, as he compiled 31.00 fantasy points against the Pacers. His tallies had been in the teens in the previous four contests, but a couple of particularly rough shooting nights played a large part in that downturn. The good news is that Bogdanovic still sports reduced price stemming from that mini-slump, and the 25-year-old seems to have the hot hand again. He's gone a combined 12-for-22 from the field over the last two contests, including 5-for-10 from three-point range. He'll be in a good spot against the Warriors, who'll bring a nice bump in pace (104.6 possessions per game on the road) for the Kings. Golden State has also allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game (43.1) to shooting guards, including 49.7 over the last five. They're also yielding the sixth-most threes (4.0) to the position over the latter span, and the man responsible for facilitating a lot of that recent production, the typically offense-minded and defensively lax Nick Young, will once again man the two-guard spot for the Warriors on Saturday.
Joe Harris, BKN at MIA ($8,400): Harris' development has been one of the few pleasant surprises for the Nets this season, and he's sporting a price that he's blown out of the water on more than one occasion. The most recent examples of such can be found over his last four games, a stretch during which Harris has scored 25.25 to 46.25 fantasy points in three of those contests. Another couple of instances have come in previous games against the Heat, as Harris has averaged 16.5 points (on 78.6 percent shooting) and 4.0 rebounds across 26.0 minutes in two prior meetings versus Miami. Moreover, the matchup has been a good one for shooting guards all season long, as the Heat have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game (42.7) to twos on the campaign -- including 44.5 over the last 10.
FORWARD/CENTER
Kevin Durant, GS at SAC ($19,200): Durant should be raring to go for Saturday's matchup despite the game lacking any true playoff implications for Golden State, which is essentially locked into the No. 2 seed. Durant returned from a six-game absence Thursday against the Bucks, only to be back on the bench before the first half was even over due to drawing a pair of technical fouls. He's likely to take out his frustrations and fresh legs on the Kings, a team he already touched up for 47.50 fantasy points over 36 minutes in their one prior meeting this season. Sacramento has been exploited by small forwards throughout the season as well, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position on the season (37.2), including 45.9 over the last 10 games. They also allow the highest percentage of scoring from three-pointers (34.4), while Durant is shooting a career-best 42.9 percent from distance this season.
Hassan Whiteside, MIA vs. BKN ($14,400): Whiteside played only 19 minutes against the Bulls in his Friday return from an extended absence, but he quickly racked up 27.75 fantasy points over that span. He has an even more inviting matchup Saturday against the fast-paced Nets, which come in allowing the most fantasy points per game (41.3) to centers on the season, including the most over the last 10 (53.9). They're also yielding the highest offensive efficiency rating (34.0) to the position on the season, while Whiteside is already averaging 19.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2.5 blocks and 1.0 assist across 26.5 minutes in two games against Brooklyn. Additionally, the Nets sport the second-lowest team shooting percentage (43.9) on the season and allow the third-most points in the paint (51.3) over the last three, which should afford Whiteside plenty of rebounding and put-back opportunities with which to round out his fantasy production.
Justise Winslow, MIA vs. BKN ($8,400): The Nets have been facilitating superior fantasy production to the opposition all season, so multiple Heat players can certainly be considered Saturday. Winslow presents as one of Miami's strong value options at his price, considering he's scored 22.00 to 43.50 fantasy points in 12 of 15 March games. He's also shot a red-hot 58.3 percent versus Brooklyn in two games this season and is typically seeing over 20 minutes in most games of late, giving him ample opportunity to pay off his modest price. The Nets should also help in that regard – they come allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to power forwards on the season (40.3), including 47.5 over the last five, and the second-highest offensive efficiency rating (27.7) to the position as well.
UTILITY
Draymond Green, GS at SAC ($16,200): Green enjoyed a solid return to action against the Bucks on Thursday, scoring 30.75 fantasy points over 28 minutes. He'll have Durant back Saturday – hopefully for a full game this time -- to help take some defensive attention away, and he'll face a Kings squad that's allowing 39.8 fantasy points per game to power forwards on the season, including 42.7 over the last 10. They're also yielding bottom-10 figures to the position in points (18.8), rebounds (10.4) and shooting percentage (46.0) on the campaign, while Green comes in averaging 1.09 fantasy points per minute this season without Stephen Curry (knee) and Klay Thompson (thumb) on the floor.
D'Angelo Russell, BKN at MIA ($12,500): Russell has scored 33.50 to 55.25 fantasy points in seven of the last nine games, a span during which he's sporting a 29.5 percent usage rate and averaging 1.27 fantasy points per minute while often blowing his current price out of the water. He's back to serving as a primary ball handler as the starting point guard, as well, which certainly helps his fantasy cause. Moreover, the Heat present him with an appealing matchup Saturday, as they've become increasingly vulnerable to ones. Miami is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game (52.4) to point guards over the last 10, a sharp increase over their 39.4 season figure. The Nets also continue playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the league (102.6 possessions per game), which typically affords Russell plenty of extra opportunities to rack up numbers over the course of a game.
