Terms like bust and sleeper have become more vague as tools like fantasy basketball rankings and ADPs are more studied than ever before.
Now, I would never use these terms as clickbait. But my goal with this article is to avoid the typical markers of a bust, forcing myself to take more difficult positions while also relieving you from the tedium of reading the same names over and over again.
A standard bust usually has the following qualities:
- Old
- Injury-prone
- Bad team/tanking risk
However, the players I'm outlining below are…dare I say it? Sleeper busts?
This unholy mashup of terms should make you roll your eyes, like "Gamified Fan Engagement Framework". Unfortunately, it's the best way to describe what I'm going for. These players aren't old, they aren't injury-prone, and they aren't on bad teams. But they all have new team dynamics that project to alter their fantasy value negatively. You shouldn't auto-draft them based on what they did last year.
Fantasy Basketball Busts
- Domantas Sabonis, Kings
- Jalen Brunson, Knicks
- Tyrese Maxey, 76ers
- Dejounte Murray, Pelicans
Domantas Sabonis, Kings 
Yahoo ADP: 14.1
A consolation for people who miss the days of Prime Kevin Love, Sabonis has been worthy of a late-first to early-second-round pick each of the past two seasons. Durability has contributed to his value, too. My concern is about the addition of DeMar DeRozan.
It's true that the new guy is often the one who sacrifices usage. That may still happen here. But even if we project DeRozan at a somewhat conservative 20 points and 4 assists, that's still about 10 more combined points and assists than who he is replacing in Harrison Barnes. That has to come from somewhere.
And from a playmaking perspective, DeRozan is the second-best on the team. There's some subjectivity to that, but he's more likely to create a shot late in the fourth quarter than Sabonis. This isn't me predicting Sabonis' downfall. He's still going to be one of the league's premier triple-double threats, but I also think he'll suffer a decrease in both points and assists this year.
Part of what makes Sabonis a tough sell for me at pick 14 is who else is typically available in this range. All fantasy analysis depends on league type – and Sabonis is better in points leagues – but there are players who, I believe, have more upside in a general rotisserie setting. That includes Scottie Barnes and LaMelo Ball. And that's before considering more boring options like Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker and Damian Lillard – who will also be available around the turn.
Jalen Brunson, Knicks 
Yahoo ADP: 21.5
Brunson was amazing last year. He deserved his fifth-place MVP finish. But a lot of that extra usage was due to Julius Randle playing half the season, plus RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley being dealt for low-usage players like OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa.
This year, not only will Randle be back in the mix, but the team added Mikal Bridges over the summer. There's just going to be less pressure and less need for Brunson to carry the team with absurd 40-minute, 28-shot efforts. It got the Knicks far, but the attrition set in during the playoffs. Brunson taking a small step back will help the team when it matters most.
But Brunson is being drafted in fantasy as if he's going to produce the exact same season he did last year. Actually, a better season, since he finished 29th in 8-cat roto per game last year. Two years ago, he ranked 53rd. I won't be surprised if he's closer to that in 2024-25. The floor is still fairly high, and it's enticing, but I'm exercising caution.
Tyrese Maxey, 76ers 
Yahoo ADP: 27.3
I really have conflicting feelings about this. I'm all in on Maxey being an emerging star. But he spent last season with Tobias Harris as the 76ers' third option, which has now been upgraded to Paul George. Plus, Joel Embiid played just 39 games last year, meaning Maxey was the clear No. 1 option for considerable portions of last year. He actually played 1,661 minutes with Embiid off the floor, seeing a 9% usage increase during those minutes.
Yes, George and Embiid are both injury risks and shouldn't be projected to play more than 65 games. But we also can't project them to play 40 games and assume Maxey is going to run the team by himself for half the year. The team's hierarchy is just a little less clear. Maxey also quietly saw 37.5 minutes per game last year. Is that sustainable, with the team gunning for a title?
The 20-40 range in fantasy is awkward this year, so it's easy to draft Maxey at pick 25 and bank on his talent. I doubt that's a league-losing decision. But there may be players still available at that range with higher ceilings or similar floors, depending on what you're looking for.
Dejounte Murray, Pelicans 
Yahoo ADP: 30.8
There's positive momentum in the fantasy community towards Murray after his move to the Pelicans. Away from the high usage of Trae Young, Murray should be able to thrive, right? Here's the problem: Trae Young's usage rate last year was 30.5%; Zion Williamson's was 29.7%. Atlanta's third and fourth options, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Jalen Johnson, had a combined 41.4% usage rate. New Orleans' now third and fourth options, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum, had a combined 51.9% usage rate. And what about Trey Murphy?
In my eyes, Murray's situation is now worse than it was in Atlanta. I get that Zion is always hurt and Ingram is on the trade block. We can go back and forth on stuff like that. Trae only played 54 games last year; Jalen Johnson only played 56 games; DeAndre' Hunter only played 57 games. So that's bonus usage for Murray baked into last year's stats.
This Pelicans rotation is packed with talent that wants the ball; they're like Knicks West. Maybe Murray can salvage fantasy value by locking back in on defense or improving his efficiency. Maybe McCollum takes a step back. Maybe Murphy isn't ready for leap. Maybe Zion plays 40 games and Ingram gets traded in December. But I can't bank on all those things spinning around in a blender and popping out like something that resembles Murray being better in fantasy than last year.
Fantasy Basketball Draft Strategy
Check out RotoWire's How to Play Fantasy Basketball guide for a complete walkthrough, but here is some basic advice:
- Check out custom NBA Fantasy Projections
- Look into Fantasy Basketball Mock Drafts
- Listen to a Fantasy Basketball Podcast
- Check in on Fantasy Basketball Player News
- Read Fantasy Basketball Articles
- Dive into RotoWire's Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit
- Study NBA Depth Charts
- See RotoWire's Fantasy Basketball Dynasty Rankings
