This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We have a typically compact four-game slate Thursday night, but the general sparseness of games doesn't equate to a lack of intrigue. The biggest news of the night is the expected return of the Warriors' Stephen Curry from his hand injury. Although he'll be taking the floor for the first time since late October, Curry is expected to enjoy a solid allotment of minutes from the start. Then, a Clippers-Rockets showdown with both teams at full health is also on the docket, giving us plenty of star power despite the abbreviated ledger.
As usual, we'll proceed to break down the positional outlook below, along with possible chalk plays and some likely under-owned bargains that could help you round out your lineups with a couple of superstars.
Before delving into the slate, a reminder that FanDuel has reverted to its previous format of NOT dropping the lowest scoring in lineups after a one-year experiment with that feature. Therefore, it will be important to be prudent with each selection, as each player's total will count toward your final score.
Without further ado, let's take a more comprehensive look at Thursday's slate!
Slate Overview
Here's a closer look at the two games with the highest projected totals on Thursday's slate:
Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets (Projected total: 236.5 points)
These two teams have lit up the scoreboard the last two times they've played, compiling 241 and 239 points, respectively. Both squads enter this contest at full health, boosting offensive expectations further. Houston has been a better defensive team at home, but they're still yielding 111.5 points per game at Toyota Center, while the Clippers are averaging 114.1 points scored per road tilt. Each squad also ranks in the top 10 in pace, with the Rockets checking as the fifth-fastest team (107.5 possessions per contest) and the Clippers not far behind (105.7 per game).
Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors (Projected total: 225.5 points)
This game will feature the return to action of Stephen Curry (hand), whose conditioning is reportedly excellent and who could therefore play a solid amount of minutes. That alone raises offensive expectations here to a degree, and Golden State's questionable defense (115.1 PPG allowed at home) also plays a big factor. Then, Toronto, even with the possible absence of Fred VanVleet (shoulder), brings plenty of firepower, as Norman Powell is a starting-quality fill-in. There's even the possibility of Marc Gasol returning for Toronto from a hamstring injury, and the fact both squads also play at a relatively brisk pace that sees each averaging over 104 possessions per game.
Positional Breakdown
Point guard will still be without Ben Simmons (back) for Thursday's slate, but it also celebrates the return of Stephen Curry (hand) to action. Curry will likely be on a minutes limit of some sort, but at a price of $8K, he's likely the cheapest he'll be moving forward for the balance of the season. The rest of the position is in good shape as well as far as notable injuries are concerned, as De'Aaron Fox is expected to play through an abdomen issue.
Shooting guard has a couple of notable walking wounded in Fred VanVleet (shoulder) and Devonte' Graham (ankle), who are both questionable. Their uncertain status does thin out the depth up top a bit, with James Harden the one other option if you're paying up. However, there's a nice drop-off in price down to Buddy Hield ($5.6K), and some potentially underpriced values in Norman Powell ($5.5K), Damion Lee ($5.4K) and Lou Williams ($5.3K).
Small forward is in excellent shape Thursday, as there isn't a single player sporting an injury designation. Getting two solid players rostered won't be an issue, either, as Pascal Siakam is the most expensive option at $8K, and there's a very appealing selection underneath him that includes Andrew Wiggins ($7.9K), Tobias Harris ($7.1K) and a significantly discounted Paul George ($6.9K).
Power forward has two big names – Serge Ibaka and Draymond Green -- looking at a 50/50 chance to play due to their respective knee injuries. That's it for short-term health issues, however, and there are also plenty of options in terms of rostering a pair of players with relatively safe floors without having to break the bank. Kawhi Leonard ($9.2K) is the most expensive option, and Robert Covington is a distant second at $6.5K.
Finally, center remains without Joel Embiid (shoulder), but Nikola Jokic ($9.9K) is a very appealing option up top if you're paying up in a premium matchup against the Hornets. After Jokic, there are also plenty of affordable options, beginning with Marquese Chriss ($6.1K) and extending down to a potentially returning Marc Gasol ($4K).
Notable Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Returning from long-term injury: Stephen Curry, GSW
Joel Embiid, PHI
Embiid remains out due to a shoulder injury.
Josh Richardson, PHI
Richardson remains out with a concussion.
De'Aaron Fox, SAC
Fox is probable due to an abdomen injury.
Fred VanVleet, TOR
VanVleet is questionable with the shoulder injury that's cost him the last three games. Norman Powell would be the primary beneficiary if VanVleet sits out again.
Serge Ibaka, TOR
Ibaka is questionable due to the knee injury that's cost him the past three games.
Marc Gasol, TOR
Gasol is questionable to return from the hamstring injury that's had him sidelined since late January.
Draymond Green, GSW
Green is questionable due to the knee soreness that's cost him the last three games.
Devonte' Graham, CHA
Graham is questionable with an ankle injury.
Noah Vonleh, DEN
Vonleh is considered questionable due to an ankle injury.
Cory Joseph, SAC
Joseph is probable with a heel injury.
Kevon Looney, GSW
Looney will remain out due to hip soreness.
Notable Longer-Term Injuries/Absences: Klay Thompson, GSW; Ben Simmons, PHI; Richaun Holmes, SAC; Marvin Bagley, SAC; Malik Monk, CHA; Dewan Hernandez, TOR; Ky Bowman, GSW
Elite Players
With just eight teams in action, we have just a pair of five-figure players on the docket, with the Rockets duo of James Harden ($11.2K) and Russell Westbrook ($10.6K) fitting the bill. Despite the tough statistical matchup against the Clippers, both players have excelled in their prior meetings with Los Angeles and are therefore worth their salaries in what should be a wire-to-wire battle.
The same logic can be applied to an elite player outside of the $10K range in Kawhi Leonard ($9.2K), who's arguably underpriced for a game in which he should have his foot on the gas for all four quarters. Nikola Jokic ($9.9K) also presents as a player that could well outpace his salary in a very favorable matchup against the Hornets' weak frontcourt. Jokic is also your only option if you're paying up at center with Joel Embiid (shoulder) out, with that positional scarcity making him even more valuable than usual.
Expected Chalk
There's automatically plenty of chalk when there are only four games on a slate, but with one clear-cut premium matchup that's almost assuredly going to be a wire-to-wire battle in the Clippers-Rockets showdown, there could be even more concentrated ownership. All of the stars in that game, including a significantly underpriced Paul George ($6.9K), should see no shortage of clicks on their respective names.
Elsewhere, the remaining healthy members of the 76ers' starting five should also be very popular with Ben Simmons (back), Joel Embiid (shoulder) and Josh Richardson (concussion) still sidelined. And in the final game of the night, the Warriors' Stephen Curry and the Raptors' Norman Powell could both draw plenty of attention due to their pedigree/price (Curry) and recent performances/price (Powell).
As customary, I've also put together a specific list of sub-$6K value plays that should find themselves in plenty of lineups – some due to injury situations on their respective teams -- and have included those below the next section.
Key and Likely Underowned Values
Mason Plumlee, DEN at CHA ($4,200)
Plumlee is enjoying another rock-solid season in his bench role, and he's returned in good form from a recent extended absence due to a foot injury. Plumlee has already eclipsed 20 FanDuel points in two of the last four games, including a 28.8 FanDuel-point tally against the Warriors on Tuesday. Plumlee's high-teens minutes total always makes him risky to an extent, so he's still primarily a large-field tournament play. However, consider the matchup against the Hornets is one of the best for centers, as Charlotte checks in with the sixth-lowest rebounding rate (48.9 percent) and allowing league-high or top-10 figures in scoring (48.6 points), rebounds (26.8), assists (7.4), steals (2.9) and blocks (3.6) per game in the paint, along with the highest offensive efficiency rating (61.8) in that part of the floor. The Hornets are also yielding the third-most FanDuel points per game to centers (37.2) on the season, furthering Plumlee's case at a salary he's provided at least a 5x return on in 18 of 49 games this season.
Furkan Korkmaz, PHI at SAC ($4,100)
Josh Richardson (concussion) will remain out of action Thursday, which should lock in another workload of at least 20 minutes for Korkmaz off the bench. The third-year guard checks into Thursday's game having eclipsed 20 FanDuel points in four of his last six games, and he's provided at least a 5x return on his current salary in 15 games this season, with only two of those coming in starts. The Kings make for a potentially vulnerable target, as they come in ranked in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency rating (22.3) allowed to two-guards, along with a 36.3 percent success rate from distance surrendered to the position. With respect to the latter figure, it's worth noting Korkmaz comes in with a particularly hot hand from three-point range, as he's drained an impressive 44.4 percent of his 6.0 attempts from behind the arc in his last six contests.
Other likely lower-owned value plays to consider: Eric Gordon, HOU vs. LAC ($4,000); Dragan Bender, GSW vs. TOR ($3,900)
Other likely higher-owned value plays to consider: Terry Rozier, CHA ($5,800); Montrezl Harrell, LAC ($5,700); Norman Powell, TOR ($5,500); Will Barton, DEN ($5,400); Damion Lee, GSW ($5,400); Shake Milton, PHI ($5,400); Lou Williams, LAC ($5,300); Eric Paschall, GSW ($5,100); Paul Millsap, DEN ($4,800); Jerami Grant, DEN ($4,500); Mike Scott, PHI ($4,300); Marcus Morris, LAC ($4,300); Mychal Mulder, GSW ($4,100); Chris Boucher, TOR ($4,100)
