This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
The playoffs resume Saturday after a three-day layoff, and we're down to three games after the Heat disposed of the Pacers in Game 4 on Monday. Saturday's ledger takes on some extra intrigue with the absence of Damian Lillard (knee), a development that naturally will have a major ripple effect on the fantasy outlook for many of his teammates. We'll explore that further, along with the two potential elimination scenarios and another Thunder-Rockets battle that could certainly be the day's best overall source of fantasy production, especially since Russell Westbrook is slated to return for Houston.
We'll begin by diving into the three games Saturday, followed by an examination of the general state of each position, a review of key injuries and a look at expected chalk plays and both under-the-radar and popular value plays to consider.
Before delving into the slate, a reminder that FanDuel has reverted to its previous format of NOT dropping the lowest scoring in lineups after a one-year experiment with that feature. Therefore, it will be important to be prudent with each selection, as each player's total will count toward your final score.
Without further ado, let's get into Saturday's slate!
Slate Overview
Here's a further look each of the three games on Saturday's slate:
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks (Projected total: 226.0 points)
The Bucks have put up at least 120 points in this series except for one game, and the oddsmakers are apparently expecting they should be able to replicate the feat. The Magic have been stuck between 96 and 107 points in the last three contests after broadsiding Milwaukee with a 122-point effort in Game 1. The one potential deterrent to this contest hitting or exceeding the total could be a blowout that allows coach Mike Budenholzer to empty his bench early.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets (Projected total: 227.0 points)
Contrary to Magic-Bucks, this could be another wire-to-wire battle and opens the possibility this total is actually a bit low. The two teams have combined for 226 and 231 points during the last two games and they also hit a 231 total in Game 1. Additionally, Russell Westbrook's return from a quadriceps injury also naturally significantly boosts the Rockets' offensive prospects.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers (Projected total: 223.0 points)
The Blazers struggled to score against LA when Damian Lillard was healthy during the series, as they scored 100, 88 and 108 over the first three games before reaching the 115-mark in Game 4. The trio of CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic and Carmelo Anthony are among those capable of making up plenty of the scoring vacuum created by Lillard's absence, but it wouldn't be surprising to see this total come in slightly lower than this number when considering how effective the Lakers' defense has looked.
Positional Breakdown
PG: We have Damian Lillard (knee) out Saturday, but the return to action of Russell Westbrook (quadriceps) certainly helps fortify the depth at the position. Chris Paul should also remain a very popular option below Westbrook. Eric Bledsoe, Markelle Fultz and D.J. Augustin are among the options below him, but there is a bit of a blowout risk attached to their contest. One value play that could skyrocket in popularity is Anfernee Simons, who may be starting in Lillard's place at minimum salary.
SG: James Harden spearheads a shooting guard pool that's once again at full health, with CJ McCollum, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Khris Middleton and Dennis Schroder as strong alternatives that will cost significantly less. McCollum should find himself on a ton of rosters with Lillard out, and teammate Gary Trent could certainly be a very noteworthy value play for the same reason.
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James represent the best one-two punch of any position, while Danilo Gallinari, Carmelo Anthony and Eric Gordon come in as some of your top alternatives outside of the two five-figure salary stars. Evan Fournier and Danuel House also make for appealing value options.
PF: Anthony Davis is fully expected to play through his probable designation due to back spasms, making him your clear-cut top choice at the four. Aaron Gordon is now definitively out of the equation, leaving the rest of the pool fairly thin in terms of upside. Jeff Green and Gary Clark have delivered some solid returns on investment on multiple occasions during this series, but Green's overall usage could certainly go down with Westbrook's return.
C: Nikola Vucevic, Jusuf Nurkic and Steven Adams are the top three choices, and all can very easily be rostered without breaking the bank. Brook Lopez arguably constitutes the best of the rest for fantasy purposes, with Hassan Whiteside and P.J. Tucker potentially offering decent value.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Returning from injury: Russell Westbrook, HOU (quadriceps)
Damian Lillard, POR (knee)
Lillard will not play in Game 5 due to the right knee sprain that forced him from Monday's Game 4, as he's left the Orlando bubble to seek further treatment. His absence, which will be his ninth overall since the start of the regular season and first one of the postseason, naturally leaves a sizable void in the Blazers' starting five that CJ McCollum, Carmelo Anthony and Jusuf Nurkic will be primarily asked to fill. Anfernee Simons and Gary Trent may be the players that directly pick up Lillard's minutes, although it could be McCollum who actually takes his place at point guard.
LeBron James, LAL (groin)
James is probable with the groin soreness he's played through the series.
Anthony Davis, LAL (back)
Davis is probable with the back spasms that led to him taking an early seat in Game 4. According to the latest reports, he's expected to play.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, LAL (knee)
Caldwell-Pope is considered probable with right knee soreness.
Aaron Gordon, ORL (hamstring)
Gordon has left the bubble and is out for any remaining Magic games this postseason. Gary Clark will continue to start at power forward.
Michael Carter-Williams, ORL (foot)
Carter-Williams remains out for Game 5.
Other injuries to monitor:
Luc Mbah a Moute, HOU (knee)- OUT
Deonte Burton, OKC (illness)- QUESTIONABLE
Longer-term injuries of note: Nassir Little, POR; Zach Collins, POR
Elite Players
We'll have four players sporting five-figure salaries Saturday, with Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11.5K) and James Harden ($11.2K) once again heading up the scale. Lakers' teammates Anthony Davis ($11K) and LeBron James ($10.6K) represent the other two players over $10K, and both have seen slight bumps over their Game 4 salaries. As mentioned, Davis and James carry injury designations that shouldn't be a concern.
The big story among the top-shelf options Saturday is that Russell Westbrook ($9.4K) is back in action and reportedly looked very explosive in a Thursday scrimmage, so it appears he's over the quadriceps injury that has kept him out since Aug. 11. Westbrook should be in excellent position to deliver a strong return on his salary if he's as healthy as he appears, while his presence could certainly make it a bit more difficult for Harden to fully deliver on a five-figure cost.
Below them, Chris Paul ($8.2K) has delivered over 40 FD points in three of his last four contests and therefore is certainly capable of delivering a better than 5x return on his salary, while teammates Jusuf Nurkic ($7.8K) and CJ McCollum ($8K) - who was notably at $7.2K for the Wednesday slate that was never played - could well outpace their costs with Lillard out of action. The same could be said for Carmelo Anthony ($5.5K), who would face an even easier time producing a spectacular return when considering how much less of an investment he requires.
Expected Chalk
All the players listed in the previous section are certainly going to be on plenty of rosters, with the Trail Blazers potentially rivaling the popularity of some of the bigger-name, more expensive stars. The Rockets' complementary players such as Jeff Green, Danuel House and Eric Gordon that had seen their popularity boosted by the absence of Westbrook should see their rostering percentages take a tumble, but their solid recent game logs and salary should still keep them in a fair amount of lineups.
As usual, I've also compiled the names of some sub-$6K value plays (including Anthony and a couple of his teammates) that should also find themselves on plenty of rosters and listed them in the next section.
Key Values
Danny Green, LAL vs. POR ($4,300)
You certainly won't have to worry about rostering percentages being high on Green, but the veteran guard offers a couple of appealing characteristics that could make him a viable cost-savings large-field tournament play Saturday. Green and the rest of his teammates won't have to worry about defending Damian Lillard, which could certainly help him focus more on the offensive side of the floor. The "three-and-D" asset has also been more involved offensively the last two games, taking eight shot attempts in each and draining five on his way to 20.3 and 27.3 FD points in Games 3 and 4, respectively. Green has logged 24 minutes or more in three of the first four games of the series and could certainly continue to benefit from facing a Blazers' squad that allows the sixth-highest three-point shooting percentage (38.2) to small forwards.
James Ennis, ORL vs. MIL ($4,200)
Ennis bounced back after getting the hook from the refs in Game 3, as he posted 19.1 FD points over 22 minutes in Game 4. The modest playing time is somewhat of a concern, but he should be back to a more robust workload with the Magic facing elimination in Game 5. The versatile wing can check off every box on the stat sheet and posted 32.6 and 25.0 FD points in the first two games of the series while also delivering over 20 FD points in every seeding game.
Other under-the-radar value plays to consider: Wesley Matthews, MIL vs. ORL ($3,900); Luguentz Dort, OKC vs. HOU ($3,700)
Popular value plays to consider: Brook Lopez, MIL ($5,700); Eric Gordon, HOU ($5,500); Carmelo Anthony, POR ($5,500); Evan Fournier, ORL ($5,300); Jeff Green, HOU ($5,100); Terrence Ross, ORL ($5,000); Danuel House, HOU ($5,000); D.J. Augustin, ORL ($4,500); Gary Trent, POR ($4,500); Anfernee Simons, POR ($4,300); Gary Clark, ORL ($4,300); P.J. Tucker, HOU ($4,200)
