This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Monday's eight-game slate sets up as an exciting night for DFS, as we've got a bit of everything. Last-minute lineup switches, injury pivots and resting players are the norm as we careen into the final week of games.
SLATE OVERVIEW
IND @ WAS (-4.5) O/U: 246.5
ORL @ DET (-1.5) O/U: 213.5
GSW @ NOR (-2.5) O/U: 236.5
POR @ ATL (-1.5) O/U: 236.5
NYK @ MEM (-3.5) O/U: 217.5
PHI @ CHI (+8) O/U: 215.5
DEN @ LAL (+2) O/U: 219.5
SAS @ UTA (-5.5) O/U: 223.5'
(odds and lines are US best available and are subject to change)
Games to Target in BOLD
Games to Fade in ITALIC
INJURIES
IND Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE
IND Myles Turner (toe) - OUT
IND JaKarr Sampson (concussion) - OUT
Indiana's outlook has certainly improved with Domantas Sabonis' probable return, but the Pacers may still have to play without their premier point guard. The direct pivots didn't do much in the last game, but Caris LeVert ($8,400) will be a trustworthy pick against the Wizards in a fast-paced matchup.
ORL Terrence Ross (back) - OUT
ORL Chuma Okeke (ankle) - OUT
ORL James Ennis (calf) - OUT
The Magic are riddled with key injuries. Moritz Wagner ($4,900) is the best value pivot on Orlando, especially if both Ennis and Okeke remain out as expected.
DET Jerami Grant (knee) - OUT
DET Mason Plumlee (rest) - OUT
DET Cory Joseph (ankle) - OUT
The injuries remain largely the same for Detroit. With nothing to play for, you may see some scarcely seen talent grace the floor. Isaiah Stewart ($6,300) is still the most reliable pivot of the bunch, while Saddiq Bey ($5,600) will be the best swap for Grant's production. Joseph's pivot has been tough to nail down, but recent numbers indicate that Killian Hayes ($4,400) is the number one guy to absorb his minutes.
GSW Andrew Wiggins (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
GSW Kelly Oubre (wrist) - OUT
Before the Warriors' beatdown of the Rockets, they suffered some ugly losses - not quite as ugly as those 'Oakland' uniforms, but still ugly. I wouldn't rule Wiggins out completely, but Juan Toscano-Anderson ($4,400) would be the obvious pivot and may be a great value independent of him playing for Wiggins. Kent Bazemore ($5,600) is on track to start for Oubre.
NOR Josh Hart - OUT
NOR Steven Adams (toe) - QUESTIONABLE
I noticed a 'questionable' tag for Hart on another site, but he is unquestionably out. Adams is still a question mark, but Willy Hernangomez ($5,000) would take the floor in a starting role if Adams doesn't suit up.
NYK Nerlens Noel (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
We'll mention one elite pivot for this spot in a moment, but Taj Gibson ($3,900) would be the obvious pivot for Noel, who is probably out despite the current tag.
CHI Nikola Vucevic (adductor) - QUESTIONABLE
CHI Zach LaVine (COVID-19 protocols) - DOUBTFUL
Coby White $6,100) is still a great pivot for LaVine. Several guys could come to the fore if Vucevic is out, but Thaddeus Young ($5,900) stands out in my mind. Lauri Markkanen ($4,200) and Patrick Williams ($3,800) could also see a boost.
LAL LeBron James (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
LAL Dennis Schroder (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT
The team is thrilled to have James back, but he's experiencing some discomfort and may decide to take a seat on the back-to-back. Schroder will almost certainly sit Monday, but there isn't a bona fide pivot to be excited about. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,600) has the biggest upside, however.
SAS Dejounte Murray (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
SAS Derrick White (ankle) - OUT
We'll have to wait and see about Murray, but at least one member of the Spurs' backcourt will be absent Monday. Devin Vassell actually started in White's place in the last game and didn't do much, and Tre Jones was equally mediocre in Murray's place. Lonnie Walker ($4,700) is probably the safest pivot in this spot for Monday.
DEN Donovan Mitchell (ankle) - OUT
DEN Mike Conley (hamstring) - OUT
Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,200) has the sharpshooting skills to make him the top pivot in this spot, followed closely by Jordan Clarkson ($6,500) and Joe Ingles ($5,700).
ELITE PLAYERS
We have only two players above $10k tonight, and they are usual suspects Russell Westbrook ($11,200) and Nikola Jokic ($10,900). Why FanDuel hasn't pushed Westbrook's salary higher is beyond me. The nightly triple-double threat is crushing slates left and right and is the easiest plug-and-play decision you can make. He's in a great spot against Indiana tonight. Jokic is a tougher pill to swallow. While he can definitely beat value, and the LA defense hasn't been as good as advertised recently, there are cheaper centers out there who can come close to replicating his value and justify the point-per-dollar differential.
As we go into the $9k range, the newsworthy targets are, without question, LeBron James ($9,800) and Anthony Davis ($9,600). Davis is on his way to playing maximum minutes but will face his stiffest test since returning in Jokic. We aren't sure about James' ankle, but he is a decent play if he starts and plays 30 minutes or more. There's no question that the Lakers are struggling, and the Nuggets have been playing very well recently. The Laker elites will get some exposure in MME builds, but probably no more than 10 percent for either player. Stephen Curry ($9,700) is in a fast-paced affair and is a good pivot for a Westbrook fade. I don't think Trae Young at $9,400 fits the bill as well as Curry does. His price is a little too high relative to his floor, and despite the speed of the matchup, I think we can take more risks at point guard, especially if we elect to take Westbrook. Domantas Sabonis ($9,500) looks like an excellent call against the Wizards' weak interior, and he edges out Julius Randle ($9,700) by a slim margin. There's merit to Randle as he plays without Nerlens Noel, but the exploit spot for Sabonis puts him over the top. Nikola Vucevic is a wait-and-see at $9K, and while I wouldn't play him in either result, his absence makes Joel Embiid ($9,600) one of the better overall exploit plays on the slate. Sadly, you'll have to wait before plugging him in. Finally, we have Zion Williamson ($9,000), who has crossed into $9k territory once again. It would be foolish to fade Zion in this fast-paced game against the Warriors, who don't really have an answer for him outside of Draymond Green.
EXPECTED CHALK
DeMar DeRozan, SAS ($8,900) @ UTA
I will lock in DeRozan if Dejounte Murray is absent, but he's still a high-quality play thanks to a definite absence from Derrick White. DeRozan rested on Sunday, so he is fully prepared for this back-to-back and has a real shot at leading his team in scoring. Right next to DeRozan in price is Damian Lillard ($8,900), and I think he's totally appropriate if you choose to bypass Curry or Westbrook, but DeRozan is a solid core guy who will go well with either of those guard elites.
Lonzo Ball, NOR ($7,600) vs. GSW
I will continue to click on Ball until he gives me a reason not to. We've already identified his weak spot (back-to-back games) in a previous article, and he absolutely loves playing against big elite names. You can't get any more elite than Curry, and you should expect these two to play shot-for-shot in what is a must-win for both teams.
Brandon Ingram, NOR ($7,400) vs. GSW
I've done the homework, and I think this is a night where one of your lineups can stack Zion, Ball and Ingram (but just one). A two-player Pelican stack is much more doable, and you'd likely need to exclude Zion in that scenario. The lightning pace and question marks for the Warriors make a New Orleans investment a little too good to pass up, and with Oubre out and Wiggins questionable, you have multiple spots where Ingram can find room to roam.
Oshae Brissett, IND ($7,300) @ WAS
It was a relief to see Brissett play alongside Sabonis in their last game because there was a chance that Brissett might take a step back with their elite big man back in the lineup. The outcome was quite the opposite, as Brissett played most of the second half and rattled off 47 FP. He's gotten a little too expensive on other sites, so this is a spot where you need to go FanDuel only, for sure. His ability to reach value is a little compromised elsewhere.
Also consider: Rudy Gobert, UTA ($7,800) vs. SA, Cole Anthony, ORL ($6,300) @ DET
VALUE PLAYS
There's a lot of value stored in our Injuries section, and other situations will emerge when Chicago, Golden State and Los Angeles release their starting lineups. Bey, Young and Wagner were my favorites from earlier in the article. Below are some additional value plays to consider.
Frank Jackson, DET ($4,200) vs. ORL
Jackson is an additional wild card for Detroit. His numbers would definitely increase if Hayes struggled out of the gate but is a notable pick on his own as a member of the second unit. At $4,200, he doesn't need to do much here to be worthwhile.
R.J. Hampton, ORL ($4,000) @ DET
You can count me as part of a vocal minority that thinks Hampton is one of the most gifted players of this year's freshman class. On another team, I think we'd be discussing Hampton in the ROY conversation, but he doesn't stand a chance for consideration toiling with the Magic. Orlando abandoned its playoff hopes long ago, so their focus is identifying young talent for a rebuild. There's no better example on the roster for the Magic, and I expect Hampton to get more minutes as the season draws to a close.
Rui Hachimura, WAS ($3,900) @ WAS
Hachimura is incredibly cheap right now, and recency bias will make him less popular than usual. His shot volume has trended up steadily since returning from injury, and he only needs 20 FP to beat 5x value at this price. Tonight's fast-paced game could allow him to exceed that milestone.
