This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We begin the final week of seeding games, and the Orlando restart bubble has been a rousing success in both quality of play and from a DFS perspective. Many games have been coming down to the final possession or two, and both established stars and second-tier players have stepped up their play.
Monday's five-game slate has some interesting injury-related aspects to consider, as the Mavericks are expected to be without both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. The likes of Donovan Mitchell and Steven Adams appear to be legitimately questionable as well, and there are other big names such as Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Jimmy Butler that carry injury designations but are expected to play.
Before delving into the slate, a reminder that FanDuel has reverted to its previous format of NOT dropping the lowest scoring in lineups after a one-year experiment with that feature. Therefore, it will be important to be prudent with each selection, as each player's total will count toward your final score.
Slate Overview
Full lines and over/unders were only available for two of the five games on the slate, making it somewhat difficult to judge which contests are worth targeting, but here's what we do know:
Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns (Projected total: 224.0 points)
The Thunder and Suns are averaging 110.4 and 113.0 points per game, respectively, and the first two meetings between the clubs have finished with totals of 234 and 218 points. Phoenix has also allowed 113.7 points per contest for the season, and with both teams close to full health, this could be a reasonable total.
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers (Projected total: 221.5 points)
The first meeting between these teams this season finished with 201-point total, but the subsequent pair of contests ended in 232 and 236 points. Jamal Murray is back for Denver, and even though Will Barton remains out, Michael Porter actually offers more from an offensive standpoint anyhow. The Lakers should also have Anthony Davis and LeBron James on the floor despite their probable designations, so the number here seems within range.
Positional Breakdown
PG: Point guard is the rare position that's in relatively strong shape health-wise, and the good news is that no one player will break your bank. Chris Paul ($7.5K) heads up the pool, while Kyle Lowry ($6.8K), Malcolm Brogdon ($6.7K) and Jamal Murray ($6.5K) are all capable of outpacing their salaries. Kendrick Nunn (personal) is the one confirmed scratch, while Goran Dragic (ankle) is expected to play and could benefit from Nunn's absence.
SG: Luka Doncic will not play, leaving Devin Booker as one of the best potential fantasy point-per-dollar plays on the slate at a price of just $8.2K. Donovan Mitchell is also questionable with a lower leg injury, but the good news is Jimmy Butler ($7.5K) is on track to suit up. The rest of the pool is in good shape with Khris Middleton, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Fred VanVleet, Victor Oladipo and Tyler Herro all sporting salaries they can live up to or outpace.
SF: The top three options at the position – Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and T.J. Warren – all have injury designations, but all are expected to play. Pascal Siakam is the other option that is above $7K, and then there's a big drop-off to Danilo Gallinari at $5.3K and Joe Ingles at $5.2K. The expected absence of Dorian Finney-Smith (hip) takes away one value option, but there are still plenty of strong sub-$5K options such as Tim Hardaway, Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder.
PF: Anthony Davis, who's seen a price drop to $9.2K, is likely to play with his ankle issue, but Kristaps Porzingis (knee) will not suit up. However, those looking for a shot at elite production but unable to float Davis' salary will have Michael Porter, Jr. ($8K) and Bam Adebayo ($7.9K) to choose from. There's then a precipitous drop to Kyle Kuzma at $5.1K, and there's some appealing value in the form of Serge Ibaka and Maxi Kleber below $5K.
C: It remains to be seen if Steven Adams (leg) will be able to play, but even if he sits, the position is in good health overall. Nikola Jokic sits up top with a salary of only $8.5K, and those looking for some savings will have access to Rudy Gobert, Deandre Ayton, Myles Turner, Brook Lopez and Kelly Olynyk.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Anthony Davis, LAL (ankle)
Davis is probable to suit up against the Nuggets despite the ankle issue he's been playing through.
LeBron James, LAL (groin)
James is probable to play against the Nuggets as he manages groin soreness. After missing Thursday's game versus the Rockets, James played 35 minutes Saturday against the Pacers without issue.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (tooth)
Antetokounmpo is probable to play against the Raptors with a toothache.
Luka Doncic, DAL (ankle)
Doncic will not play against the Jazz due to a right ankle injury. Doncic logged 42 minutes Saturday against the Bucks and didn't appear to be injured, and it's likely the decision to hold him out is related to resting him for the first game of a back-to-back set. It remains to be seen whether J.J. Barea, Trey Burke or Delon Wright will log a start in Doncic's place at point guard.
Kristaps Porzingis, DAL (knee)
Porzingis will not play against the Jazz due to a left knee injury. The big man did play 40 minutes against the Bucks on Saturday and didn't seem to have any injury concern in that game, and it's likely the decision to hold him out is related to resting him in the first game of a back-to-back set. Boban Marjanovic will likely handle starting center duties against Utah.
Dorian Finney-Smith, DAL (hip)
Finney-Smith is listed as out against the Jazz with a left hip strain. The veteran wing's absence could lead to more minutes for Justin Jackson and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
Seth Curry, DAL (leg)
Curry is probable to play against the Jazz and could have a major role, considering Luka Doncic (ankle), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (hip) and Kristaps Porzingis (knee) will all be out.
Jimmy Butler, MIA (foot)
Butler is listed as questionable to play against the Pacers but is expected to suit up, as he was able to log a full practice Sunday.
Donovan Mitchell, UTA (lower leg)
Mitchell is questionable to face the Mavericks due to a left lower leg peroneal strain. Mitchell was able to play 47 minutes in a double-overtime loss against the Nuggets on Saturday but would likely be replaced by Jordan Clarkson in the starting lineup should he sit.
T.J. Warren, IND (foot)
Warren is questionable to face the Heat with the foot soreness he played through against the Lakers on Saturday. Considering Warren racked up 39 points in that contest and finished the game, he's likely to be available Monday.
Steven Adams, OKC (leg)
Adams is likely to be listed as questionable at best with the leg injury that cost him Sunday's game against the Wizards.
Nerlens Noel, OKC (ankle)
Noel is likely to be listed as questionable at best with an ankle injury that cost him Sunday's game against the Wizards.
Andre Roberson, OKC (foot)
Roberson is likely to be listed as questionable at best with the foot soreness that cost him Sunday's game.
Kendrick Nunn, MIA (personal)
Nunn has left the Orlando bubble for the time being due to a personal matter. With Goran Dragic also questionable due to an ankle sprain, Tyler Herro or Duncan Robinson may take over starting point guard duties.
Goran Dragic, MIA (ankle)
Dragic is questionable with the ankle sprain that cost him Saturday's game versus the Suns, but he's expected to suit up against the Pacers after logging a full practice Sunday.
Kelly Oubre, PHO (knee)
Oubre is considered doubtful with the knee injury that's kept him out since late February.
Dwight Howard, LAL (heel)
Howard is probable to play against the Nuggets.
Danny Green, LAL (hip)
Green is likely to be listed as no better than questionable against the Nuggets with the sore right hip that kept him out of Saturday's game.
Dorian Finney-Smith, DAL (hip)
Finney-Smith is questionable due to a left hip strain. If he misses, Justin Jackson and Maxi Kleber could be the biggest beneficiaries.
Gary Harris, DEN (hip)
Harris will not play against the Lakers. Torrey Craig should continue to benefit from Harris' absence.
Will Barton, DEN (knee)
Barton will be out again against the Lakers. Michael Porter will continue to start at small forward.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, LAL (ankle)
Caldwell-Pope will not play Monday against the Nuggets.
Troy Daniels, DEN (hip)
Daniels is questionable to play against the Lakers with the right hip soreness that cost him the last two games.
Aron Baynes, PHO (knee)
Baynes will remain out against the Thunder.
Elie Okobo, PHO (ankle)
Okobo is likely to be listed as questionable at best with the ankle injury that cost him Saturday's game against the Heat.
Notable Longer-Term Injuries/Absences: Dennis Schroder, OKC; Rajon Rondo, LAL; Domantas Sabonis, IND; Patrick McCaw, TOR; Vlatko Cancar, DEN; Juwan Morgan, UTA
Elite Players
The elite player pool is compromised by the injuries and corresponding absences of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, but Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Jimmy Butler, who all carry probable or questionable tags, are fully expected to play. Nikola Jokic, Devin Booker and Michael Porter are also capable of offering elite-level production yet come in with salaries between $8K and $8.5K, making them strong pivots off some of the stars that perhaps may have their minutes managed due to their teams' seeding certainty (Antetokounmpo, James, Davis).
Expected Chalk
There could be some interesting chalk possibilities in play Monday due to the Mavericks' absences, although it's not yet clear who'll step in for both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. If there's some clarity on that before lock, then those players will find themselves on plenty of rosters. One healthy Dallas starter that should be a sure proposition is Seth Curry, who could see a major usage bump and is priced at an irresistible $3.6K. As far as "expected chalk", it's safe to assume all the elite players mentioned in the previous section should be as popular as usual.
Key Values
Hamidou Diallo, OKC vs. PHO ($4,000)
Diallo has quietly been offering strong production off the bench during the restart, scoring between 16.3 and 25.6 FD points in the Thunder's four games. The emerging wing has logged over 20 minutes in three of those contests as well, and he could be in line for another solid workload Monday with Andre Roberson and Dennis Schroder unavailable. Diallo is able to check off nearly every box on the stat sheet and will have a good matchup against the Suns, which are ranked in the lower half of the league in shooting percentage (46.0) and three-point percentage (35.9) allowed to second-unit players.
Dario Saric, PHO vs. OKC ($3,900)
Rookie Cameron Johnson has taken a firm hold of the starting power forward job, but Saric is still producing off the bench, only he's now typically being rostered at a lower rate than when he had the top job. The fourth-year forward has scored between 20.6 and 26.7 FD points in Phoenix's first five seeding games, providing offense off the bench. Saric is making good use of his 23.4 minutes per game in Orlando, as he's averaged 7.4 shot attempts and is shooting a red-hot 51.4 percent, including 46.2 percent from long distance. On that note, it's worth mentioning the Thunder have allowed 47.1 percent shooting to power forwards, the eighth-highest mark in the league.
Trey Burke, DAL vs. UTA ($3,700)
By the time the Mavs-Jazz game tips off, Burke may no longer be a contrary play, as he may draw the start for Luka Doncic (ankle) at point guard. However, for the moment I'm operating under the assumption he'd be worth a spot in tournaments under any circumstances, given his minuscule salary, recent production and even the fact he's facing the team that drafted him back in 2013. Burke has scored 20.8 and 21.3 FD points in his last two seeding games, and he's logged between 20 and 31 minutes in four of Dallas' five Orlando contests. Given how thin the Mavs roster will be, he should be in for another workload in that range against a Jazz squad allowing the seventh-highest offensive efficiency rating (27.7) to point guards.
Other under-the-radar value plays: George Hill, MIL ($3,900); Luguentz Dort, OKC ($3,900); Pat Connaughton, MIL ($3,800); Darius Bazley, OKC ($3,600); Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, DAL ($3,500); Justin Jackson, DAL ($3,500)
Other popular value plays: Victor Oladipo, IND ($5,800); Danilo Gallinari, OKC ($5,300); Joe Ingles, UTA ($5,200); Tyler Herro, MIA ($5,100); Maxi Kleber, DAL ($4,700); Serge Ibaka, TOR ($4,600); Norman Powell, TOR ($4,500); Jae Crowder, MIA ($4,400); Seth Curry, DAL ($3,600); Mike Muscala, OKC ($3,500)
