This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
This marks the final day of the regular season. And much like most final days of any sport, this is going to be chaotic. There really isn't anyone playing for anything important and it's going to cause mayhem in DFS circles. Many of the big-name players have already been ruled out and there's likely more coming. With that in mind, we'll do our best to examine this and try to find some value!
Slate Overview
The lines and totals are projections from me because oddsmakers have no idea what to expect with all of these players resting.
DEN-TOR: No one has been ruled out yet, so Toronto enters this matchup as a 1.5-point favorite. The total should be around 225.
IND-MIA: With every significant player resting, the spread is likely to be a pick-em. The total should be around 220 between two defensive teams.
OKC-LAC: With Chris Paul already ruled out, the Clippers will likely enter this game as a 6.5-point favorite. The total should be somewhere between 220 and 230.
HOU-PHI: This should be the highest-scoring game of the day, with a total around 240. Houston is projected to be a 5.5-point favorite and it could go higher is Philly rules players out.
Positional Breakdown
PG: With Russell Westbrook and Paul out up top, Kyle Lowry is the cream here at $6,900. Malcolm Brogdon sits $300 behind while Jamal Murray is at $6,300. Viable cheap options include Austin Rivers, Kendrick Nunn, Shake Milton and Monte Morris.
SG: James Harden represents the best play on the board at $11,500. Paul George follows up just below $8K while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Fred VanVleet sit in the $6,000s. In terms of value, Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson, Duncan Robinson, PJ Dozier, Hamidou Diallo and Rodney McGruder could all play big minutes depending on who rests.
SF: Kawhi Leonard, Tobias Harris and Pascal Siakam are the clear-cut choices here between $7,000 and $9,000. Darius Bazley looks interesting at $5,200. Doug McDermott, Eric Gordon, Matisse Thybulle and Danuel House are all fascinating options below $5,000.
PF: With Bam Adebayo and Domantas Sabonis out, Robert Covington and Michael Porter Jr share the cake here at $7,000. Al Horford at $5,800 could be interesting if Embiid sits. Some cheap guys worth considering include Nerlens Noel, Jeff Green, Mike Scott and T.J. Leaf.
C: With Joel Embiid possibly out, Nikola Jokic is up top at $8,300. Steven Adams is next just below $6K. Ivica Zubac and Chris Boucher are interesting in the $5K-range while Kyle O'Quinn, Mason Plumlee and Bol Bol could be in play depending on injury reports.
Injuries to Monitor
Jimmy Butler/Bam Adebayo/Goran Dragic (MIA)
All of these guys will sit out the season finale for Miami because of rest and small ailments. Look for Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn and Kelly Olynyk to pick up minutes.
T.J. Warren/Victor Oladipo/Myles Turner/Domantas Sabonis (IND)
These four will also sit out. That should force Malcolm Brogdon into a bigger role and provide minutes to guys like Aaron Holiday, T.J. Leaf and Doug McDermott.
Chris Paul (OKC)
Paul will sit this game out due to a hand injury. With Dennis Schroder (baby) also gone, Hamidou Diallo and Darius Bazley should play more.
Russell Westbrook (HOU)
Westbrook will be out for this game because of a quad issue. Look for James Harden to dominate and for Austin Rivers and Eric Gordon to play more.
Ben Simmons (PHI)
Simmons remains out because of a knee injury. Shake Milton should start at PG.
Joel Embiid/Al Horford/Tobias Harris/Josh Richardson (PHI)
Any one of these regulars could rest for Philly here. Embiid is most likely with a questionable tag due to numerous ailments.
Elite Players
James Harden comes in as the highest-priced player on this slate and he's really the only guy I trust. He could easily be the only player above $7,000 who's not rested and it'll be huge to get those raw points into your lineup. Joel Embiid, Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Jokic follow him up, but all carry serious risk based on history. If you hear anyone is playing 30 minutes above $6K, play them in every lineup!
Expected Chalk
James Harden, HOU ($11,500)
This is the free square chalk play of the day. Everyone will be using Harden, and rightfully so. He's the only one who's definitely going to be playing and that's beautiful with Russell Westbrook out as well. With RW off the floor this season, Harden is averaging over 60 FanDuel points per game. Just get him into your lineup and build from there.
Tyler Herro, MIA ($5,300)
Something tells me Herro is going to be used across most lineups. That's because of all the Os next to Miami players, including Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo. That means Herro will run the show and his 20-year-old body should be plenty capable to handle a full 35-minute workload. He's been starring in that role recently by averaging 38 FD points per game across his last four fixtures. Herro's good chalk to use, but beware of how many DFS players will be using him.
Key Values
Eric Gordon, HOU ($4,000)
Gordon is one of the only players who's playing for something today, and that would be rhythm. This is only his second game back and that mean the Rockets surely want to get his stamina up to par. Gordon played 20 minutes in his return and will likely try to get to 25-30 minutes here. If that's the case, he should provide plenty of value with Westbrook also out. Look for Gordon to get up shots and play minutes, which is really all you can ask for in a crazy slate like this.
T.J. Leaf, IND ($3,500)
There's going to be a few minimum-priced players worth considering, but we'll go with Leaf. The reason for that is because Warren, Oladipo, Sabonis and Turner are all out. That means they need to ride these youngsters and it's a perfect opportunity to give Leaf 20-plus minutes. In the one game over 20 minutes this season, he dropped 36.5 FanDuel points across 22 minutes of action. If you see Leaf is starting, he's the lock of the day. All of that also makes Doug McDermott intriguing at $4,200, as he's likely to play 30 minutes and take 10-15 shots.
