This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
PHX vs. MIL (-4), O/U: 220.5
After dropping the first two games in Phoenix, the Bucks dominated Game 3 in Milwaukee on Sunday and are expected to even the series tonight. Giannis Antetokounmpo has looked healthy and unstoppable. Sunday's showdown featured a rare solo winner in the main GPP, and it was even more impressive considering the lineup had Giannis in the captain spot. Not many people rostered Bobby Portis and Frank Kaminsky together; that was the difference. Planning for specific scenarios and building lineups that fit them is the best way to approach these single-game contests. Most people play for a competitive game, and we continue to see blowouts more often than not. Don't be afraid to roster a cheaper captain or leave some salary on the table in the quest to differentiate.
Elite Players
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,400)
Giannis is coming off a monster performance in Game 3 on Sunday when he put up a 41/13/6 line that helped him score 69.25 fantasy points. It was similar to the 42/12/4 line and 71.5 DK points that he had in Game 2. He clearly projects as the slate's top scorer again tonight and after consecutive big games, I'd expect him to be quite popular. One way to differentiate would be to avoid him in the captain spot.
Devin Booker ($10,400)
Booker had his worst game of the postseason in Sunday's loss as he shot just 3-for-14 from the field and scored only 20.5 fantasy points. Before the dud in Game 3, he'd been on a stellar run, averaging over 40 DK points and seeing at least 42 minutes in four consecutive games. The salary for tonight seems a bit expensive, at least compared to that of Chris Paul ($9,600). That being said, it still makes sense to roster Booker in certain scenarios. If the Suns keep the game close tonight, he's likely to be the reason why.
Khris Middleton ($10,000)
Middleton posted an 18/7/6 line that helped him score 38.25 fantasy points in Game 3. He's failed to reach 40 DK points in consecutive games as he's taken a backseat while Giannis has been more aggressive on offense. The inconsistency is nothing new for Middleton this season but it's likely to make him less popular than the other elite options tonight and when that's the case, he becomes more appealing. He's still playing 40+ minutes per night and has plenty of upside when seeing that type of run.
Expected Chalk
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,400)
Normally I wouldn't highlight the most expensive player on the slate in this section, but I expect Giannis to be the most popular option tonight by a considerable margin. He's averaging 70 fantasy points in back-to-back games, and the Bucks are coming off a convincing win in Game 3. There also isn't anyone in the cheap range that clearly stands out among the rest. Giannis is the best play on the slate, and while he's very likely to be in the optimal lineup tonight, fading him can still make sense from a game theory perspective. If that's the route you choose, a Suns blowout would be the most likely scenario.
Value Picks
Chris Paul ($9,600)
Paul is coming off just 33 fantasy points in Game 3, his lowest output in 10 games. Nonetheless, he's in the midst of a fantastic postseason and he's topped 50 DK points in five of the last 10. It doesn't make sense that he's $800 cheaper than Devin Booker and I'd assume that makes him relatively popular.
Jrue Holiday ($9,200)
Holiday has scored at least 40 fantasy points in four of his last five games and he's played 40 minutes in all but one as well. He's been overlooked with Giannis back healthy, and I'd expect him to be less popular than he should be again tonight, especially considering that he's sandwiched between Paul and Ayton. It could be a nice spot to get some leverage and he'd make for a viable, somewhat contrarian option in the captain spot as well.
Deandre Ayton ($8,400)
Even though he only played 24 minutes and fell one rebound shy of a double-double, Ayton still finished with 32.35 DK points in Game 3. Prior to Sunday, he'd recorded five consecutive double-doubles while averaging north of 40 fantasy points in the same span. The salary has dropped back down, which will help make him popular tonight, considering the lack of appealing mid-range value.
Pat Connaughton ($4,200) and P.J. Tucker ($3,400)
Connaughton is averaging 30 minutes off the bench in the last four games and has topped 25 DK points twice in that span. I'm highlighting Tucker for the fact that his salary has dropped under $4,000 for the first time in six games, and he's still seeing low 30s minutes per night. He's scored double-digit fantasy points in 10 straight.
Cameron Johnson ($3,800)
Johnson has put up at least 20 DK points in three of his last four games, and his salary has dropped significantly. He was almost unplayable for the $6,000 tag that he had for Game 2. He actually has some upside for $3,800 and stands out as one of the better options in this cheap range.
