This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
SA vs. MEM (-4), O/U: 222
GS vs. LAL (-5), O/U: 219
Tonight's slate is more straightforward than last night's. The MEM-SA matchup is clearly the better target of the two games. DraftKings dropped the ball with the salaries, especially on the Spurs' side, as their key players are much too cheap. There are some bargains on the Grizzlies' side as well, and they were already appealing as the team with the highest implied point total. Meanwhile, the Lakers are never fun to roster when LeBron James and Anthony Davis play together, not to mention both are coming off injury. The Warriors have the more appealing options, but they're also the biggest underdogs. The Spurs will be chalky, and rightfully so. Leverage could be had spending for the Laker studs, who are likely to be contrarian.
These two game slates play more similarly to single-game showdowns than they do to the standard classic slates, and my advice would be to approach them as such. Plan for specific game scripts and build rosters to reflect those outcomes. Cheaper punts that are less optimal and normally too risky are more viable as they don't come with as much opportunity cost due to the smaller player pool. Don't be afraid to take some chances in the larger field tournaments. Chalk fails more often than people realize.
Injuries to Monitor
Kelly Oubre (wrist): OUT
Oubre hasn't played since April 27th due to a wrist injury, and his status will be re-evaluated next week. Kent Bazemore will continue to start at small forward.
Grayson Allen (abdomen): QUESTIONABLE
Allen has missed seven consecutive games with a sore abdomen and is listed as questionable for tonight. In his absence, Kyle Anderson has moved over to small forward while Jaren Jackson has come into the starting lineup at power forward.
Elite Players
Guard:
Stephen Curry ($10,100)
Curry is coming off 73.25 DK points in the regular-season finale on Sunday to close out an MVP-caliber year that saw him win the scoring title. He put up 50+ fantasy points in six of the last seven games and continues to take upwards of 20 three-pointers per night. The Warriors have had to rely on him even more as they lack the talent of years past, especially in the scoring department, and that's resulted in Curry see the highest usage numbers of his career. He'll need a big game tonight if Golden State has a chance of winning.
PF/C:
Anthony Davis ($10,200)
Davis scored 50+ DK points in three of his last five games, and he topped 60 fantasy points twice in that span. It's definitely worth noting that his ceiling games came in the absence of LeBron James, and he didn't have many big nights all season when they played alongside each other. There's good mid-range value tonight and not much on the cheap end, so I don't see myself spending for Davis here. He's still a decent leverage play for tournaments, especially on a small slate, as I don't expect him to be overly popular.
PG/SF:
LeBron James ($10,000)
James played only three games in May as he worked his way back from a lingering ankle injury but said he's "good to go." He didn't play more than 28 minutes in any of those games, but it's safe to assume he sees mid-30s tonight. I didn't target LeBron all season when he and Anthony Davis were in the lineup together, and it's hard to go him here, especially coming off the injury. As I mentioned with Davis, there is value all over the mid-range, which makes spending for James seem less than ideal. The less popular he is going to be, the more viable he becomes.
Expected Chalk
Jakob Poeltl ($4,900)
Poeltl put up 30+ DK points in four of his last six games, and for whatever reason, his salary has dropped to its lowest point in 10 games. The Spurs will need him in the paint to compete with Jonas Valanciunas tonight, and I'd expect a bump in minutes with the season on the line. There isn't much for cheap value tonight, and that makes Poeltl look even more appealing. I'd expect him to be popular, and rightfully so.
Value Picks
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,600)
Valanciunas finished the season strong, topping 45 DK points in five consecutive games. Like Poeltl, his salary has also fallen to its lowest point in 10 games for no apparent reason. He looks like one of the best plays on the slate to me, and I'd expect him to be popular.
Draymond Green ($7,400)
Green put up 40+ fantasy points in four consecutive games to end the season, and he continues to flirt with a triple-double just about every night. He might find it difficult to score against a big Lakers frontcourt, but he's averaging double digits in his last eight games. The salary is still favorable, and he should see upwards of 40 minutes if the game stays close.
DeMar DeRozan ($7,000) and Dejounte Murray ($6,300)
Both DeRozan and Murray are significantly undervalued. They're too cheap by at least $1,000. DraftKings made a mistake with the Spurs' salaries tonight, which will lead to them being popular. It's tough not to like both DeRozan and Murray, as they should see a minutes bump as well. I'd expect most other people to feel the same way, and they will likely be somewhat chalky.
Jaren Jackson ($5,900)
Jackson has scored 30+ DK points in four of his last five games, and he's coming off a season-high 31 minutes last time out. He's a player with considerable ceiling potential as he blocks shots, gets steals and shoots threes. He's also too cheap if he's going to play 30 minutes again, and I'd expect that he does if the game stays close.
