DraftKings NBA: Wednesday Cheat Sheet

This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.

When playing NBA Playoff slates, there are two aspects that I enjoy.  Firstly, you can almost guarantee rotations for all of the teams, and secondly, you have an accurate metric in the form of a previous game that occurred two days earlier.  I also find it valuable to look back at contests and see how players built the winning lineup. Here is an example of the winning lineup from a major GPP on Monday.

Total: 398.00 

The first takeaway - when Mike Conley is absent, the production for Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles gets a huge boost, especially in Mitchell's case. If you failed to roster Mitchell, you could probably still hit your cash games, but GPPs were a tall order.  This roster weathered some relatively high salary percentages to come out on top, but to grab Doncic, you needed to dig for value with Burks and Morris. Noticeably absent are Leonard, George and Embiid. I was on the money with VanVleet but elected to stack the two Clippers in most lineups, which resulted in a solid cash but not much in the way of tournaments. I broke 300 but suffered by going with Clarkson instead of Mitchell, and was saddled with a Kemba Walker tank. It isn't advisable to run with an identical lineup to this one, but there are definite cues to come away with as we tackle this slate a second time.  Let's run the games down once again:

SLATE OVERVIEW

TARGETED GAMES/TEAMS IN BOLD, FADED GAMES/TEAMS IN ITALIC

BKN vs. TOR (-11)  O/U: 226.5

UTA vs. DEN (-4.5) O/U: 217.5

PHI vs. BOS  (-4.5) O/U: 214.5

DAL vs. LAC (-6.5) O/U: 230.5

[odds subject to change}

Although I liked Brooklyn's spunk in Game 1, it looks like Raptors could end up with a sweep in the first round. Their lineup is dialed in and well-rounded, and the Nets can keep things competitive enough that Toronto's starters become decent options. Your most volatile game remains the Jazz/Nuggets contest, but we learned that both teams are willing to let their guards loose in the form of Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell. I'm still a fan of the Clippers here, and I think Dallas will also keep things close with Doncic and Porzingis together (the Porzingis ejection had a colossal effect). We also learned that Boston and Philly have so many mouths to feed that prices for the starters are becoming prohibitive.

POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN

It's a similar story as Monday, with a thin center pool and a deep guard list as well as a variety of palatable forwards.  Late swap pivots will be a slightly lower concern, so I'm not as focused on hunting for PF/C or SG/SF pivoters, but they still provide versatility for your lineup builds.

INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR

Kristaps Porzingis (knee) QUESTIONABLE

I think KP will play, but this is one spot you'll need to check before this game locks. Obviously, if he ends up sitting, I like the late pivot to Boban Marjanovic ($3,200) and then using your surplus to go for one of the three remaining elites in the game.

Gordon Hayward (ankle) OUT

This Grade 3 sprain is a massive loss for Boston, as he is likely out for the series. Hayward left the game in the fourth quarter on Monday, so we don't have a lot to go on for a history without Hayward.  Jayson Tatum's ($9,000) usage goes up 6.3 percent when Hayward is off the floor, so he emerges as an immediate core guy in my builds, but value becomes a stickier situation. If I limit my coverage to bubble play, we see a huge usage boost for Carsen Edwards ($3,000), but at 6-foot-1 I don't see how he would work as a Hayward placeholder. My best guess at this point is Semi Ojeleye ($3,000) drawing the start.  It's also possible that they would up their height advantage by running with Daniel Theis ($4,700) and Enes Kanter ($3,200) together, but the smartest play is to go with Tatum and then take a look at the starting lineup before lock.

The rest of the injury landscape is pretty clean, but all of the Denver players (Barton, Harris) remain absent, and Mike Conley will be out until he clears quarantine.

ELITE PLAYERS

Kawhi Leonard, LAC ($10,000) vs. DAL

I still like Kawhi here despite the outcome of the winning slate. The $1,300 differential off of Luka Doncic still seems to be the more attractive call when building around a 10k player, and I think he could go north of his Game 1 number if he gets his long-range shot in order.  He only went 1-for-7 from beyond the arc in Game 1, which was his worst three-point shooting performance in Orlando.  

Joel Embiid, PHI ($9,900) vs. BOS

Embiid went north of 5x value in Game 1 and remains difficult to ignore at a sub-10k price. While I don't think Hayward's loss will help Embiid all that much, it boosts the fortunes of some other Sixers that I will mention later.  Embiid will depend on a bad shooting day from Boston to really pad his stat line, as all he has to do is stand under the basket and grab rebounds flat-footed. I see no reason why his 25/16 line can't be replicated.

While you have to like Donovan Mitchell ($9,200), his 1k salary increase is pretty severe.  It all depends on where you project him.  If I assume a 50-DKFP day, he's still worth the cost, but he can't go further south than that. It's worth noting that aside from his explosion on Monday, he only broke 50 DKFP once in the bubble. I already mentioned Tatum, and I still think he's worth the 9k salary.

Also consider: Caris LeVert, BKN ($8,200) vs. TOR, Nikola Jokic, DEN ($9,700) vs. UTA

EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS

Tobias Harris, PHI ($7,700) vs. BOS

I think Harris could see a significant boost with Hayward off the floor.  You could also say the same for Al Horford ($6,700), and for me, it all depends on how they fit into your lineups.  I wouldn't stack them, but if you look at Harris, he's due for a definite bump in shot attempts.  He usually makes about 16 shot attempts per game, and he's gone below that number in his last three games.  Hayward's absence could yield a few more looks, and with the loss of Ben Simmons, his assist increase should also continue to exceed his usual numbers.

Fred VanVleet, TOR ($7,600) vs. BKN

VanVleet was my most confident pick on Monday, and he worked out very well. I will go right back to the well because although I like the rest of Toronto's starting lineup, VanVleet is often the only elite remaining in a second-unit rotation, and he saw 39 minutes despite the blowout.  I credit the Raptors for being a very unselfish team, and they were well aware of how hot Fred was running. They just handed him the ball and let him work.

Jamal Murray, DEN ($7,200) vs, UTA

I haven't been too high on Murray, but I'm forced to change my tune after Game 1.  With a lot of key players missing, the Nuggets have had to rely a lot on Michael Porter Jr., but if you look at Murray's progression through the bubble, his role during playoff time was evident. He fell off the radar a bit as the Nuggets went into safe mode, but we saw a glimpse of what was to come in a huge game against the Jazz in the seeding period.  Whatever the reason, Murray seems to have an easy time navigating Utah's defense, and you have to consider him for a guard slot.

Also consider: Rudy Gobert, UTA ($7,400) vs. DEN

KEY VALUES

Joe Harris, BKN, ($5,000) vs. TOR

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, ($4,700) vs. TOR

As you build, it's critical to choose one of these sharpshooters, as they can fit any lineup and are prime candidates to destroy value. The Nets may be big underdogs, but they aren't afraid to shoot the ball. Harris and TLC are going to generate a lot of that output, and they come at a much better price than LeVert, who is the more obvious target. Both guys have an excellent chance of going above 30 DKFP Wednesday.

Jerami Grant, UTA ($4,600) vs. DEN

Interestingly, Grant saw 40 minutes on the floor on Monday, which is why Michael Porter's numbers weren't great. Michael Malone is quickly becoming a younger version of Gregg Popovich as a lineup slayer, so there's no telling how the minutes will work this time.  Grant is the cheaper option, and if he can grab a few more rebounds, he's an excellent candidate to beat value at this salary point.

Ivica Zubac, LAC ($4,500) vs. DAL

I also gave a lot of exposure to Zubac in Game 1, and although I am looking forward to Montrezl Harrell's return to his usual minutes, Zubac fits the scheme for defending Porzingis. Both Patrick Patterson and Joakim Noah failed to see the floor on Monday so there isn't much competition for him, and barring an announcement for a big minute increase for Harrell, I think Zubac is safe.

Also consider: Juwan Morgan, UTA ($3,200) vs. DEN

There are a few spots that warrant inspection as games lock, and our Advanced Lineup tool is THE place to go if you want the best information available. You can also look up key players on our NBA home page, as our crack team of writers will also be on top of any late-breaking news.  May value be in your favor!