This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
PHX vs. MIL (-5), O/U: 222
Saturday's Game 5 was a back-and-forth thriller that saw the teams combine for 242 points, the highest total of the series by 22. The Bucks pulled off the upset after overcoming a big first-half deficit and now have a chance to win the NBA Championship at home. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been stellar throughout while Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton have been just as important. From a DFS perspective, I'd expect the Milwaukee side to be popular based on the fact that they're five-point favorites. There is a lack of cheap value on the slate as a whole, so cap space will be at a premium. It would make sense to save some by rostering someone other than Giannis in the captain spot. When making lineups, remember to pick a specific game script and a build a lineup that fits your scenario. Most people just look at the previous box scores. Not enough plan for blowouts and not enough will fade Giannis. Though these scenarios may be unlikely, the potential leverage and upside make the risk worth taking.
Injuries to Monitor
NONE
Elite Players
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,800)
Giannis is coming off a 32/9/6 line that helped him score 52.25 DK points Saturday. From a fantasy perspective, it was actually his worst performance of the series and that speaks to just how good he's been. Prior to Game 5 he'd put up 65 or more fantasy points in three consecutive games, and it seems reasonable to expect similar production in Game 6. He's been the most popular player rostered in the five previous showdowns against the Suns and I'd expect that to be the case again tonight.
Devin Booker ($10,400)
Booker had his best game of the series in Game 5 when he put up a 40/4/3 line on his way to 55.5 DK points. It was his second consecutive 40-point game as he's attempted to put the Suns on his back with a championship on the line. He's taken 61 shots over the last two games and it's safe to expect 25-plus again. He will need to have another big game if Phoenix is going to force a Game 7, so it makes to roster him if you're building lineups for that scenario. If not, I'd look to save some salary and roster Chris Paul or Deandre Ayton for my Suns exposure instead.
Khris Middleton ($10,200)
Middleton came up big in the clutch yet again Saturday as he continues to make a case for series MVP. He made key shots down the stretch as he put up a 29/7/5 line and 44.75 DK points. It was a nice way to follow up the 58.5 fantasy points that he had in Game 4. He's averaging 43 minutes per game in the Finals and his considerable ceiling potential makes a him a worthy option for the captain spot.
Expected Chalk
Giannis has been the chalk throughout these NBA Finals and I wouldn't expect it to be much different tonight. He clearly projects for the most raw fantasy points on the slate, and with the series back in Milwaukee and the Bucks favored by five, that will only increase his appeal. It would be perfectly reasonable to just lock him in and try to differentiate your roster elsewhere, but there are paths to fading him if you're comfortable assuming some risk. There are five other players capable of big games and if that happens, his salary could prohibit Giannis from being in the optimal lineup. There isn't much for cheap value either, and that adds to the viability of a potential fade.
Value Picks
Jrue Holiday ($9,600)
Holiday was sensational in Game 5 as he scored 27 points, dished out 13 assists and put up a massive 61.5 DK points. His steal from Booker and subsequent alley-oop to Giannis sealed the win for the Bucks in the final minute. It was the third time in the past seven games that he's topped 55 DK points. Similar to Middleton, that ceiling potential makes him a good option for the captain spot.
Chris Paul ($9,000)
Paul had 21 points, 11 assists and 44.5 fantasy points Saturday. It was his first double-double of the series and he will likely need another one if the Suns are going to keep this game close. His salary has hovered around $10,000 for the majority of the postseason, so he seems like a bit of a bargain tonight. I'd expect him to be aggressive with the Suns facing elimination.
Deandre Ayton ($8,200)
Ayton can also be rostered at a slight discount as we're used to seeing his salary around $9,000. He's had a great postseason and is coming off his seventh double-double in the last eight games when he put up 20 points and 10 rebounds. Just as encouraging were the 45 minutes that he played, and it's safe to assume he sees 40 again with the season on the line.
Pat Connaughton ($5,200)
There isn't much for cheap value tonight and Connaughton's salary has now reached its highest point of the postseason. However, he's played at least 30 minutes off the bench in four consecutive games and he's scored at least 23 fantasy points in three of those. He seems like a safer option than Brook Lopez or Bobby Portis, who are valued directly above and below him.
Cameron Johnson ($4,400) or Cameron Payne ($4,000)
Johnson and Payne are the only Suns players that are seeing significant minutes off the bench. Payne was in the winning lineup for Saturday's showdown when he put up a 6/4/4 line and 21 DK points in 15 minutes. Johnson has been playing low-20s minutes on most nights and has topped 20 fantasy points in five of his last 10 games.
