This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
MIL vs. PHX (-6), O/U: 218.5
The Suns have had a week off after beating the Clippers in six games while the Bucks finished off the Hawks in six Saturday. Major news for this series is the injury status of Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee). He's missed consecutive games and is unlikely to play in Game 1. Consequently, the Suns are significant favorites tonight and for the series. Most people build lineups in accordance with the Vegas odds, so planning for a Bucks win would be an easy way to get different. We've seen plenty of blowouts throughout the postseason and yet, most people build lineups that fit a competitive game-script. If you're on the Suns, planning for a rout seems like a good strategy. Other options in the quest to be unique include leaving salary on the table or using a cheaper player in the captain spot.
Injuries to Monitor
Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee): DOUBTFUL
Giannis missed the final two games of the Eastern Conference Finals after hyperextending his knee in Game 4 and he's expected to sit out a third consecutive game tonight. Bobby Portis has been starting in his place while Pat Connaughton has seen extra minutes off the bench.
Elite Players
Khris Middleton ($10,400)
Middleton is coming off a 32/4/7 line that helped him score 52 DK points in Saturday's series-clinching win over the Hawks. In back-to-back games without Giannis in the lineup, he's averaged 43 minutes and 57 fantasy points in his role as Milwaukee's primary option on offense. Assuming Giannis is out again, Middleton would be the most expensive player on the slate and that seems fair considering the big games he's had recently. I'd expect him to be quite popular, and rightfully so.
Chris Paul ($9,800)
Paul was sensational in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals on Wednesday as the Suns finished off the Clippers. He scored 41 points and dished out eight assists on his way to a massive 67.5 fantasy points. He's now topped 50 DK points in four of his last seven games and he's attempted at least 19 shots in five straight. Him and Devin Booker have similar salaries and many lineup constructions will have to make a decision between the two. I prefer Paul, based on his higher floor and comparable ceiling.
Devin Booker ($9,600)
Booker has failed to reach 40 fantasy points in four of his last five games. Contributing factors include poor shooting percentages and a significant drop in assist rate. When CP is in the lineup, Booker's fantasy production becomes scoring-dependent, and that makes him risky at this high salary. I'd expect him to be the least popular of the elite options, but not by much considering that the Suns are six-point favorites.
Jrue Holiday ($9,200)
Similar to Middleton, Holiday has looked great in back-to-back games without Giannis in the lineup. He's coming off a 27/9/9 line Saturday that included two blocks and four steals as he put up 62.75 DK points He's averaged 42 minutes and 59 fantasy points in those two games, and the Bucks will need to rely on him heavily again. I'd expect him to be popular, maybe even more so than Middleton considering the $1,200 salary difference.
Expected Chalk
Deandre Ayton ($8,400)
I wouldn't expect any one player to stand out as significantly chalkier than the rest. The elite options are similar and there aren't any glaring salary mistakes in the cheap range. I'm highlighting Ayton here for a few reasons. His salary has come down after regularly being valued at or above $9,000 for the last couple of weeks. He's the only player on the slate with a salary in the $8K range and there is only one (Brook Lopez) in the $7K range. Another way of looking at it: Ayton's the cheapest of the stars. He's scored 43 or more DK points in three of his last five games and should be relatively safe value on a slate that doesn't offer many bargains. I'd expect him to be popular, but again, I wouldn't call anyone chalky.
Value Picks
Brook Lopez ($7,400)
After seeing a diminished role in the first four games of the Atlanta series, Lopez has played 38 and 39 minutes in consecutive games. His salary is up after a whopping 52.75 DK points in Game 5. Without Giannis in the lineup, the Bucks will need Lopez's size to contend with Ayton.
Bobby Portis ($6,800), if he starts
Portis has started back-to-back games in place of Giannis and has seen at least 32 minutes in each of them. He's shown upside as well, attempting 20 shots on his way to 43 fantasy points in Game 5. There isn't much for appealing value on this slate and he seems like one of the safer options given that he averages more than a fantasy point per minute.
Jae Crowder ($5,600)
Crowder struggled for most of the Clippers series but is coming off a good game in the clincher last Wednesday when he put up 29.25 DK points in 33 minutes. His salary is down and the minutes should be safer against a bigger team like the Bucks.
P.J. Tucker ($4,400)
Normally I wouldn't recommend a player like Tucker, but the absence of Giannis makes him viable. He's topped 20 fantasy points while playing mid-30s minutes in consecutive games and could've fared even better had he not gone just 2-for-10 from three-point range.
Cameron Johnson ($2,800)
Johnson is ready to go after sitting out Game 6 against the Clippers due to an illness. His salary has fallen considerably after he was valued at or above $4,000 in every game against Los Angeles. He's scored double-digit DK points in eight consecutive games while seeing low-20s minutes off the bench most nights.
