This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
MIL (-7) vs ATL, O/U: 219
The Hawks were on their way to pulling off the upset in Game 3 on Sunday when Trae Young injured his foot in the third quarter. Though he was able to return, they had no answer for a red-hot Khris Middleton as the Bucks dominated the fourth quarter. Based on their recent postseason history, and assuming Young plays, the Hawks would seem to have a better chance of winning tonight than the seven-point spread would indicate. Atlanta will be desperate for a win to avoid going down 3-1 in the series before it heads back to Milwaukee. If the majority of people are playing this showdown slate and planning for a Bucks win, there's plenty of merit to going in the opposite direction. However you see the game playing out, build lineups for specific scenarios as opposed to just rostering the best projected players.
Injuries to Monitor
Trae Young (foot): QUESTIONABLE
Young briefly exited Sunday's game in the third quarter due to a foot injury but returned and played 39 minutes. He's listed as questionable with a bone bruise. It's hard to imagine him sitting out, but if he does, Lou Williams would be in line for an expanded role.
Elite Players
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000)
Giannis had 33 points, 11 rebounds and 58.75 DK points in Game 3 on Sunday. He's now played at least 40 minutes in five of his last six games (the one he didn't was an early blowout). He clearly projects for the most raw fantasy points and he will popular as a result. He ends up on the winning lineup in most scenarios, with the most likely exception being a Hawks blowout. Instead of fading, I'd look to avoid him in the captain spot.
Trae Young ($10,800)
Young is listed as questionable after being diagnosed with a bone bruise in his foot. He was able to play through it Sunday and still finished with 35 real points in 39 minutes. Assuming he starts, I wouldn't let the injury affect my decision to roster him or not. If anything, I tend to have more interest in these spots with the hope that his questionable tag slightly dampens popularity. The Hawks need Young to play well if they have any chance, and he's shown throughout the postseason that he's more than capable of carrying them to big upsets.
Khris Middleton ($10,000)
Middleton was the Bucks' best player in Game 3 as he put up a 38/11/7 line that helped him score a whopping 64.75 DK points. His 20 points in the fourth quarter were more than the Hawks scored as a team. He's arguably been Milwaukee's most important player this postseason and that's also reflected in his fantasy numbers. He's now topped 55 DK points in four of his last eight games. The frequent ceiling games make him a good option in the captain spot as well.
Expected Chalk
Giannis Antetokounmpo
As has been the case in the first three showdown slates for this series, Giannis will be the most popular player rostered. He's clearly the best of the elite options and no one overly stands out in the cheap range. I mentioned avoiding him in the captain spot as a way to differentiate. If I were to fade, I'd use the salary to afford four expensive players rather than go for a balanced build. The path to a successful fade likely involves three or four other players hitting their ceilings rather than Giannis failing.
Value Picks
Jrue Holiday ($9,400)
Holiday scored just six points on 2-of-11 shooting from the field Sunday, but he dished out 12 assists and still finished with 36.5 DK points. He's played at least 42 minutes in four of the last five games and we just saw him go off for 61.5 fantasy points in Game 1. You could get some leverage by rostering him in the captain spot.
John Collins ($8,800)
Collins is coming off a disappointing 24 DK points Sunday as foul trouble limited him to only 23 minutes. I'd expect recency bias will make him less popular, and that makes him more appealing. He's consistently shown 40-plus fantasy point upside throughout the postseason and the Hawks need his size and athleticism to contend with Giannis.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,400)
It's encouraging that Bogdanovic is listed as probable after being considered questionable for the first three games of the series. Despite the fact that he shot just 3-for-16 on Sunday, it was nice to see him play a series-high 35 minutes. His salary has dropped to its lowest point of the postseason.
Danilo Gallinari ($5,800)
Gallinari had 18 points and four rebounds as he saw a playoff-high 36 minutes off the bench Sunday. He's a scoring-dependent player and that makes him risky, but it gives him more upside than the other players in this range.
P.J. Tucker ($3,600) and Pat Connaughton ($3,200)
Tucker has scored 15-plus DK points in four straight and he consistently plays mid-30s minutes in close games. Connaughton put up 18.5 DK points in 32 minutes Sunday. For less than $4,000, that type of run would make any player appealing on this slate. There aren't many viable options in this range as few bench players are seeing significant minutes.
