This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We have a two-game slate featured on DraftKings for Tuesday. The Jazz will look to close out the Nuggets, after which the Mavericks and Clippers will battle to take control with their series all tied up at 2-2. This time of year has teams running tighter rotations than normal, so it's difficult to find ways to differentiate yourself, especially with only two games available. Taking a shot on lesser-known players in hopes they can see some unexpected court time can be an effective way of separating from the public and climb the leaderboard.
Slate Overview
DEN vs. UTA (-3) O/U 220.5
The Jazz will look to close out the Nuggets after a hard fought Game 4 that put them up 3-1 in the series. Donovan Mitchell has been the standout for Utah coming off a 66.5 fantasy point explosion, but he was outdone by opposition point guard Jamal Murray as he stuffed the stat sheet with a mammoth 82.3 fantasy point display. Both see their highest salaries of the season with Murray the more affordable option.
DAL vs. LAC (-6.5) O/U 236
Equalized at two wins apiece, the Mavericks and Clippers square off in hopes of taking control of the series. Despite an ankle injury, Luka Doncic is coming off one of his best games of the season with a 92.8 fantasy point triple-double. Meanwhile, we've seen the ever-steady Kawhi Leonard chip in four straight 50+ fantasy point outings, which includes a 64.8 fantasy point showcase in Game 3. Both stars should continue to carry their respective teams, as they were both in the top 10 in usage during the regular season and that's clearly rolled over to the postseason.
Injury Situations to Monitor
Luka Doncic (ankle) Questionable
Despite the questionable tag Doncic will probably play, but make sure to check his status closer to lock.
Kristaps Porzingis (knee) Questionable
After missing Game 4 with knee discomfort, Porzingis comes into the day as a true game-time decision. Doncic would carry the offensive load yet again, should KP not be able to suit up.
Trey Burke (ankle) Questionable
Burke has been dealing with ankle soreness but should be available barring any setbacks.
Gary Harris (hip) Questionable
Harris was close to returning to action in Game 4 but was ultimately ruled out. He's missed every game so far in the bubble, so even if he's cleared to play today he would presumably be on some kind of minutes restriction,
Patrick Beverley (calf) Questionable
Beverley should be viewed as more doubtful than questionable with a calf strain. Reggie Jackson and Landry Shamet would continue to see extra playing time, although neither have been very effective since Beverley has been out.
Elite Plays
Luka Doncic, DAL ($11,000)
Coming in as the most expensive option, Doncic has the highest ceiling of anyone on the slate, or in the entire NBA for that matter. Without Kristaps Porzingis in Game 4, he carried the Mavericks with 43 real points on his way to a game winning triple-double to tie the series. As the usage leader (38.3) during the regular season he should continue to be the focal point of this offense whether Porzingis can play or not. There is some merit to fading him in tournaments, since he should be the most rostered player of the night, but by and large I think it's an 'eat the chalk' situation and you'll need to figure out other ways to be different.
Kawhi Leonard, LAC ($10,000)
Listing the two most expensive options as the elite plays isn't very compelling I'm sure, but on a two-game slate you're really just looking for raw production and that's definitely what you get with Leonard. He doesn't have quite the same ceiling as Doncic, but their floors are almost identical as Leonard seemingly has sleepwalked his way into 50 fantasy points every game since the start of the playoffs. Leonard was top 10 in usage (33.2) during the regular season and has clearly put the team on his back here, reminiscent of his championship run with the Raptors just a year ago. Paul George for the most part has taken a back seat but has the ability to erupt at any time. As with Doncic, there is some appeal to fading Kawhi for the No. 2 option on the team in George, hoping for an off night from the former Finals MVP.
Expected Chalk
Mike Conley, UTA ($6,700)
Conley returned to the bubble after the birth of his child and delivered back-to-back marvelous performances to help the Jazz put the Nuggets on the brink of elimination. While Donovan Mitchell has been the standout overall for Utah, he comes at a steep price point in comparison with Conley. I like the discount and floor Conley provides, and rostering him can allow you to get in potentially both of the aforementioned elite plays without sacrificing exposure to the stellar Jazz backcourt.
Michael Porter, DEN ($5,700)
I'm not exactly sure if he'll be chalky but he's getting to a salary low enough that you can take a shot in hopes he can flash some of that massive ceiling he displayed prior to the playoffs. The return of Jamal Murray clearly has effected his production, but with three 50+ fantasy point performances during the eight-game regular season restart there is no denying Porter's ability to churn out some big games when given the opportunity.
Key Values
Seth Curry, DAL ($4,600)
Mostly playing off the bench, Curry has had a secure role, seeing over 30 minutes in three of four playoff games so far. He stepped up in Game 3 with Doncic struggling due to his ankle injury and poured in 22 real points while hitting all four attempts from behind the three-point line. Curry should absorb most of the second unit usage and could see even more court time if Trey Burke is unable to suit up with an ankle injury of his own.
Royce O'Neale, UTA ($4,500)
The usually steady O'Neale has been wildly inconsistent to start the playoffs. Outside of a 37.3 fantasy point outing, he hasn't cleared 20 fantasy points against the Nuggets. I'm a big believer in the bounceback and think he could pull that off here, since he regularly logs over 30 minutes and isn't completely dependent on scoring, as steals and blocks are a big part of his game.
