This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We get six games featured on the DraftKings main slate for Tuesday, starting at 1:30 EST. The Nets take on the Bucks in what should be a potential blowout with the Nets opting to rest three of their starters. The games get better from there though, with an evening finale squaring up the Rockets against the Trail Blazers, who are fighting for their playoff lives.
Slate Overview
Games To Target
ORL (-2) @ IND O/U: 223
HOU (-4.5) @ POR O/U: 244
Games To Avoid
MIL (-17) vs BKN O/U: n/a
The Pacers are playing on a back-to-back, but with the bubble situation there really isn't a reason to worry about fatigue since players aren't traveling anywhere. For the most part the Eastern Conference is all but decided. There aren't huge incentives other than getting into playoff shape for the Magic and Pacers, but in the case of the Pacers it's more about opportunity on their side off the ball. They continue to be without Domantas Sabonis and Jeremy Lamb and possibly Victor Oladipo again. The big question with all that is, what to do with T.J. Warren? His price continues to climb after posting 70.5 and 69.8 fantasy point outings. Where is the jump off point? Can he keep this up? Orlando is by far the toughest defense they'll have faced so far, but does it matter? I think it's a case of opportunity outweighing matchup, and I'll keep going back to the well.
The Rockets take on the Blazers in what should be a high-octane affair. The Spurs and Grizzlies both lost yesterday in what is a extremely tight playoff race for the No. 8 seed in the West. You can expect the likes of Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic to go all out here and do whatever they can to secure the win.
Pretty clear why the Bucks and Nets is the game to avoid. The Nets seem to have waived the white flag, resting three of their starting players, which accounts for the large 17-point spread. I think you can possibly find some value in the bench players for both teams, as there may be a lot of garbage time to soak up, but all should be considered risky plays any way you slice it.
Injury Situations To Monitor
Victor Oladipo (load management)
I expect Oladipo to play in this one after resting yesterday against the Wizards. He impacts players like Aaron Holiday and Justin Holiday more directly but you definitely have to factor him into the big decision of playing T.J. Warren or not. We only have about a six game sample size with the projected starting lineup but in that case Oladipo has a 28.1 percent usage rate.
Elite Plays
Luka Doncic ($10,700)
It's really a coin flip between Doncic and James Harden when choosing between the high-priced studs. Giannis Antetokounmpo is up there as well, but chances are he doesn't see a full compliment of minutes. In three games against the Kings, Doncic is averaging 59 fantasy points per contest and he has had two 60-plus fantasy days since the restart. He led the league in usage (38.5 percent) before the shutdown and shows no signs of slowing down.
Damian Lillard ($9,900) and Jusuf Nurkic ($8,500)
I'd call this a package deal, as these two have been leading the way for Portland since the restart. I mentioned previously how important this game is for the Trail Blazers as they are fighting for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They also face a Rockets team that was bottom of the league in points allowed (114.9) per game and played at the third-fastest pace (106.0) in the league. The Rockets are also extremely thin at center, usually going with P.J. Tucker in an attempt to control the paint. We just saw Kristaps Porzingis decimate the Rockets down low, and I expect Nurkic to do the same if not moreso here, as he's coming off consecutive 50-plus fantasy point displays.
Expected Chalk
T.J. Warren ($8,000)
As I said before, do you jump off now or roll the dice again? I think under the current circumstances with the team you just keep firing Warren up. Even when Oladipo played it didn't seem to have any effect on his production, as he dropped 53 real points on the way to 70.5 fantasy points. The Magic are one of the best defensive teams in the league, only allowing 107.6 points per game to opposing offenses, and they also play at one of the slowest (100.7) paces in the league. Despite that, Warren should be able to get it done again as they give up over 40 fantasy points to small and power forwards this season, which at this point looks like that could be Warren's floor.
Jimmy Butler ($7,200)
This feels a tad too cheap for a guy averaging 45 fantasy points against Boston this season. The Heat are locked into the No. 4 seed with only a handful of regular season games to play. Butler should be remain in attack mode as the focal point of the offense.
Value Picks
Malcolm Brogdon ($5,400)
Coming in at his lowest price point of the season, Brogdon missed the first game of the restart with a neck issue but returned for the second game and responded with a 41 fantasy point eruption against the Wizards. He gets a tougher matchup versus Orlando but was able to churn out a 37 fantasy point day when facing them earlier this year. Plain and simple, he's too cheap for a player averaging 34.5 fantasy points on the season, even despite the difficult opponent.
Kelly Olynyk ($3,800)
The Heat are dealing with a few injuries and players trying to get back into playing shape from positive COVID-19 tests. This has allowed Olynyk to shine in the first two games of the restart. He logged 24 minutes in the meeting against Denver and played even more (31 minutes) against the Raptors. If he's getting that kind of playing time at $3,800, sign me up! He seems to play more aggressively when facing his former club the Celtics, with a 22 fantasy point showing in their first game this season. Boston also allows 42 fantasy points to the power forward position on the season.
