This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defenses to avoid: San Antonio Spurs, vs MEM: All three of the top DFS defenses this season are going on Tuesday: the Spurs, the Grizzlies and the Jazz. The Jazz have the toughest matchup, going up against a hot Trail Blazers offense. Thus, it comes down to the Spurs vs. the Grizzlies. The Spurs are the better team, are playing at home, and the Grizzlies may not have the services of defensive anchor Marc Gasol (Q, foot, missed last five games). The Spurs have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to forwards, the eighth-fewest to guards, and the 12th-fewest to centers in the last 10 games.
Offense to use: New Orleans Pelicans, vs DEN: This game seems set up for the Pelicans to do well. The Nuggets have allowed the most fantasy points to guards and the ninth-most to centers in the last 10 games, and while their forward defense has been more solid, they don't have any forward with the size/strength/speed to really slow down Anthony Davis (or DeMarcus Cousins, whichever is the power forward). Thus, the Pelicans' backcourt is set up to succeed, and both of their big men are also in good situations. Plus, the teams are close-enough matched for the game to potentially be competitive, and both are fighting for that last playoff spot out West so they should be doing their best.
Teams on Back-to-Backs:
First game: Hornets, Cavaliers, Mavericks, Nuggets, Warriors, Grizzlies, Thunder, Spurs, Raptors
Second game: Timberwolves, Trail Blazers
Jimmy Butler, CHI at NY ($9,800): Butler has averaged 55.8 fantasy points in his last five games, with a min. of 44.5 and a max. of 68.8. He's playing at a consistently mega-elite level since Dwyane Wade went down, regardless of competition. On Tuesday, he faces a Knicks defense that has been surprisingly stout against shooting guards of late, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to shooting guards in the last 10 games. However, when Butler faced the team allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position last week, he turned in that 68.8 fantasy point game to establish himself as essentially match-up proof right now.
Elfrid Payton, ORL at CLE ($7,900): Payton has averaged 44.4 fantasy points with a min of 31 and a max of 56.3 in his last five games, including two triple-doubles. The risk on Tuesday is that the Cavaliers, who have been struggling of late, re-find their form in time to turn this game into a blowout. But the Cavs have been average against point guards, allowing the 15th-most fantasy points to the position in the last 10 games.
Emmanuel Mudiay, DEN at NO ($3,900): Mudiay is a risky play, because he had completely fallen out of he Nuggets rotation and is still behind Jameer Nelson (out, calf) and Jamal Murray on the depth chart. However, Nelson missed the last game and, though Murray started, it was Mudiay who stepped up with 17 points, nine assists, four rebounds and a block in 32 minutes off the bench. On Tuesday, he's essentially a punt with starter upside against a Pelicans defense that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to point guards in the last 10 games.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at OKC ($9,900): Antetokounmpo has averaged 54.9 fantasy points with a min of 35 and a max of 74 in his last six games. On Tuesday, he has a superstar matchup against Russell Westbrook and the Thunder, against whom he produced 51.5 fantasy points in their one other meeting this season.
Aaron Gordon, ORL at CLE ($6,400): Gordon has averaged 42.6 fantasy points with a min of 21.3 and a max of 62.5 in his last four games. His last two games have been 62.5 and 55.3 fantasy points, and on Tuesday he faces a Cavaliers defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to power forwards in the last 10 games.
Al-Farouq Aminu, POR at UTA ($4,600): Aminu has a tough match-up on Thursday, against a Jazz defense that is strong on the interior and has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to power forwards in the last 10 games. However, Aminu has been playing very well, averaging 32.2 fantasy points in his last five games with a min of 25.5 and a max of 44.3. His offense is more perimeter based, which gives him some space from Rudy Gobert and the strong Jazz interior.
Anthony Davis, NO vs DEN ($10,100): Davis was briefly sidelined by an ankle injury in the first half of his last outing on Sunday, but returned and turned in 30 points with 11 boards and four combined block/steals in 40 minutes. On Tuesday, he faces a Nuggets defense that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to centers in the last 10 games and really has no power forward with the size and athletic ability to slow Davis down when he's at the four. In two games against the Nuggets this season, he has averaged 74.3 fantasy points.
Brook Lopez BKN at PHI ($7,300): Lopez has averaged 43.3 fantasy points, with a min of 29.8 and a max of 55.8 in his last five games. On Tuesday, he faces a 76ers defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to centers over the whole season, as well as over the last 10 games. In three games against the 76ers this season, Lopez has averaged 47.5 fantasy points.
Shawn Long, PHI vs BKN ($3,900): Long has averaged 22.3 fantasy points in his last six games, with a min of 8.3 but a max of 32. He has scored more than 23 fantasy points in four of those six games, and on Tuesday faces a Nets interior defense that has been average of late, allowing the 17th-most fantasy points to centers in the last 10 games.
