This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
MIL vs. PHX (-5.5), O/U: 219.5
Despite Giannis Antetokounmpo unexpectedly returning to the Bucks lineup, the Suns cruised to a convincing 118-105 victory in Game 1 on Tuesday. They were six-point favorites when Giannis was listed as doubtful, and he's off the injury report for tonight, so it appears that his status doesn't have too much of an effect on the spread. The Suns remain considerable favorites to win both this game and the NBA Championship. From a DFS perspective for tonight's showdown, there are plenty of spend-up options to choose from but not much for cheap value. That makes it difficult to fit four of the stars in lineups without making some serious concessions elsewhere, and I'd expect that leads to the popularity being more spread out than usual. I'd expect most people to roster Giannis and Chris Paul and then go from there. It's best to build lineups that fit specific game scripts or possible scenarios. You could even go as far as picking a specific score and then build a lineup that would fit that outcome.
Injuries to Monitor
Dario Saric (knee): OUT
Saric suffered a torn ACL in the first quarter of Game 1 and will be out indefinitely. He had seen around 10 minutes per game, mostly spelling Deandre Ayton. Those minutes are likely to go to Frank Kaminsky going forward.
Elite Players
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400)
Giannis wasn't expected to play in Game 1 but was upgraded from doubtful to questionable prior to tip-off and ended up playing 35 minutes. He finished with 20 points and 17 rebounds that helped him put up 53.75 fantasy points. He didn't appear to be restricted after missing the last two games of the Eastern Conference Finals due to a hyperextended knee. A healthy Giannis is the top overall play on the slate, and I'd expect his popularity to reflect that.
Chris Paul ($10,400)
Paul is coming off another great game on Tuesday when he scored 32 points and dished out nine assists on his way to 53.5 DK points. He's shot over 60% from the field in consecutive games and has attempted at least 19 shots and six straight. He's been the Suns' best player from a fantasy perspective for the majority of the postseason now, and I'll continue to prefer him over Devin Booker when the salaries are this close. People are starting to catch on, but as long as the popularity stays similar, Paul is the better option on most nights.
Devin Booker ($10,000)
Booker had 27 points, six assists and 43.5 DK points in Game 1. It was just the second time in his last six games that he topped 40 fantasy points. I don't mind playing him and Chris Paul together, but until there becomes a significant difference in either salary or popularity, it's hard to prefer Booker over Paul at this point.
Expected Chalk
Deandre Ayton ($9,200)
I'd expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to be the chalkiest player on the slate, but I'm highlighting Ayton because he should be the most popular in his salary range. Specifically, I'd expect him to be more popular than Booker, Middleton and Holiday, who are valued just above and below him. Ayton had another big double-double in Game 1 as he scored 22 points and grabbed 19 rebounds on his way to 49.25 DK points. He's now scored at least 43 fantasy points in four of his last six games and continues to see upwards of 40 minutes per night.
Value Picks
Khris Middleton ($9,800)
Middleton is coming off a 29/7/4 line that helped him score 43.75 DK points in Game 1. Now that Giannis is back, we can't expect the same level of consistency from Middleton, but that doesn't mean he's not a good option. He played 45 minutes and attempted 26 shots on Tuesday. Those numbers prove that he still has plenty of upside.
Jrue Holiday ($8,800)
Holiday shot just 4-14 from the field in Game 1 but had seven rebounds and nine assists to finish with 30.75 fantasy points. He's playing 40+ minutes on most nights, and his salary has dropped under $9,000 for the first time in eight games. He's likely to go somewhat overlooked tonight.
Jae Crowder ($5,600)
Crowder shot 0-8 from the field, including 0-5 from three-point range in Game 1. Despite the poor shooting, he still played 33 minutes and had nine rebounds, and those are encouraging signs. His salary is still down as well, and there isn't much for appealing value on this slate.
Cameron Payne ($3,800)
Payne's salary has fallen considerably and is now under $4,000 for the first time in 10 games. He's still seeing around 15 minutes per night and still has upside in limited run with various ways he can fill up a stat sheet.
Bobby Portis ($3,200)
Continuing with the theme for these cheaper options, there just isn't a lot to like tonight. Portis is back in play because his salary came all the way down from $6,800 in Game 1 to a point where he's now a bit of a bargain. He should see around 15 minutes off the bench, and he averages well over a fantasy point per minute for the season.
