This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
ATL vs. MIL (-2), O/U: 215.5
When Trae Young was ruled out for Game 4 on Tuesday, it looked like that would spell the end of Atlanta's playoff hopes. Instead, not only did the Hawks pull off an improbable upset, but the Bucks lost Giannis Antetokounmpo to a knee injury in the third quarter. Milwaukee are only two-point favorites at home, and that leads me to believe that Giannis will be out for tonight's pivotal Game 5. Similar to yesterday's PHX-LAC showdown, most people will build lineups planning for a close game. Playing for a blowout, one way or the other, would be a simple way to get leverage on the field (it paid off yesterday as the Suns won by 27). Trae Young (foot), Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday will be very popular. Avoiding them in the captain spot would be another way to differentiate. Or you could choose to captain them, considering their likelihood of being the slate's top scorer, and leave some salary on the table to be unique.
Injuries to Monitor
Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee): DOUBTFUL
The good news for the Bucks is that Giannis did not suffer any structural damage when he injured his knee in the third quarter of Tuesday's Game 4. The bad news is that he's unlikely to play tonight. Bobby Portis and Bryn Forbes are candidates to start in his absence.
Trae Young (foot): QUESTIONABLE
Young will be a game-time decision tonight after sitting out Game 4 due to the bruised foot he suffered in Game 3. Lou Williams got the start at point guard in his place.
Clint Capela (eye): QUESTIONABLE
Capela was hit in the face at the end of Game 4 on Tuesday and is listed as questionable for tonight due to eye inflammation. If he were to miss, Onyeka Okongwu would be in line for an expanded role.
Elite Players
Trae Young ($10,800)
Assuming Giannis is out, Young would be the most expensive player on the slate tonight. It's possible he could be limited, considering that he missed Game 4 due to a bone bruise in his foot. I'd still expect him to be quite popular as there aren't many spend-up options to choose from. While most people will roster him and Middleton together, there could be a decision of one or the other. For me, I'll take Middleton in his role without Giannis over an injured Young.
Khris Middleton ($10,400)
Middleton has been the Bucks' best player of late, scoring 55+ DK points in three of the last six games. He will get all the usage he wants tonight with Giannis expected to sit out, and we saw him have big games in these spots throughout the season. I'd expect him and Young to be the most popular players on the slate, and it's relatively easy to afford both of them together.
Expected Chalk
Bobby Portis ($4,400), if Giannis Antetokounmpo is out
Portis will be in line for extended minutes if Giannis sits out tonight. If he starts, I'd expect him to be very chalky, and if he comes off the bench, he would still be quite popular. He averages well over a fantasy point per minute and had already seen an increased role off the bench in recent games. The salary is cheap, making him a safe option with considerable upside.
Lou Williams ($5,200), if Trae Young is out
Williams is coming off a great performance in Game 4 when he started at point guard in place of the injured Young and put up a 21/5/8 line that helped him score 41.75 DK points. If he starts again tonight, I'd expect him to among the most popular players on the slate, and rightfully so considering the affordable salary.
Value Picks
Jrue Holiday ($9,600)
Despite recent shooting struggles, Holiday has topped 35 fantasy points in all four games of the series and went for a massive 61 DK points in Game 1. If Giannis misses, he'd be in line for a significant usage bump and would make for a good option in the captain spot as well, with the potential to be the slate's highest scorer.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($7,200)
Bogdanovic is coming off his best performance of the series on Tuesday when he put up a 20/3/5 line on his way to 41.25 DK points. After being hampered by a knee injury to begin the series, he's now seen mid-30s minutes in consecutive games. He'd be extra appealing if Trae Young were ruled out again.
Clint Capela ($6,800)
Capela has been underwhelming throughout the postseason from a fantasy perspective. I'm mentioning him here because his salary has fallen considerably, and with Giannis expected out, it's possible he could be more of a factor on the offensive end.
Brook Lopez ($6,000)
Lopez has seen a reduced role in the series so far, but he could find more opportunities tonight in the absence of Giannis. His salary has come back down to a point where he now has some upside, especially considering that he shoots threes and blocks shots.
Cam Reddish ($3,200)
Reddish is coming off his best game since February on Tuesday when he scored 27.25 DK points in 23 minutes off the bench. Prior to his Achilles injury, he had been starting at shooting guard and playing big minutes. A place in the rotation isn't guaranteed tonight, but his upside and cheap salary make it worth the risk.
Bryn Forbes ($2,600), if Giannis is out
It's possible that Forbes could draw the start tonight if the Bucks choose to go with a smaller lineup in the absence of Giannis. He's quite cheap and could make value easily if he shoots well from three-point range.
