This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
MIL (-1.5) vs. MIA, O/U: 226.5
PHX vs. LAL (-7), O/U: 210.5
DEN vs. POR (-4). O/U: 227.5
The PHX-LAL matchup has the widest spread and lowest total, making it a rather obvious but good candidate to fade. The DEN-POR matchup is an appealing target, as the Nuggets are still shorthanded, and the Trail Blazers have multiple players with favorable salaries on a slate where they have the highest implied team total. The MIL-MIA game is a good target as well. The viable options from Miami are all affordable, and there's a decent chance that it's the only game that stays close tonight.
It's important to distinguish these shorter playoff slates from the bigger ones we are accustomed to in the regular season. Game-scripting and lineup correlation should take precedence over simply playing the best-projected plays. Outcomes are more variable than what's reflected in how most people construct lineups on a nightly basis. It can help to think of these small slates as separate single-game showdowns and then aggregate your thoughts into a lineup that makes sense.
Injuries to Monitor
Chris Paul (shoulder): PROBABLE
Paul was clearly bothered by his shoulder, as he played just 23 minutes in Game 2 on Tuesday. He's expected to play tonight but likely won't see a full workload. Cameron Payne played 33 minutes off the bench and should get extended run again if Paul is limited.
Elite Players
PF/C:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900)
Giannis is coming off 65.25 DK points in just 31 minutes, as the Bucks blew out the Heat in Game 2. He's topped 60 fantasy points in both games, and while he is the most expensive player on the slate, he's probably the safest. I prefer him slightly over Jokic tonight, mostly because I prefer the Bucks over the Nuggets in their respective matchups.
Anthony Davis ($9,700)
Clearly, I made a mistake on Tuesday when I dismissed Davis due to his limited ceiling potential. "I wanted to make sure that I made a statement" was his quote after putting up a 34/10/7 line on his way to 67 DK points. He played 40 minutes and attempted 21 free throws. His salary is favorable anytime it's under $10,000, and it's hard not to like him tonight with the series back in Los Angeles.
Center:
Nikola Jokic ($10,700)
Jokic scored 56.5 DK points in 31 minutes as the Nuggets comfortably defeated the Trail Blazers in Game 2. Similar to Tuesday's slate, deciding between him and Giannis will be a major decision. I'd recommend making the choice based on roster correlation and how you see each game playing out. Pairing Jokic with Damian Lillard makes sense, as does pairing Giannis with Jimmy Butler.
Small Forward:
LeBron James ($9,800)
LeBron is coming off 47 DK points in 39 minutes as the Lakers bounced back with a win in Game 2. He scored 48.25 DK points while playing 36 minutes in Game 1. Those performances aren't good enough to warrant prioritizing him over the other spend-up options tonight. However, it's nice that his salary has dropped under $10,000, and he always has triple-double upside. I'd expect him to be less popular than the others in this range, and if that's the case, he becomes a good option to get leverage in tournaments.
Guard:
Damian Lillard ($9,400)
After 59 DK points in Game 1, Lillard put up 68.5 in Game 2. He played 40+ minutes and dished out double-digit assists in both games. Instead of jumping to 10K, his salary actually dropped by $100. The Trail Blazers have the highest implied total tonight, and Lillard is the cheapest of all the elite options. I plan on rostering him.
Expected Chalk
Damian Lillard ($9,400)
Normally I wouldn't highlight one of the more expensive players as expected chalk, but I'm doing it for a few reasons. First, as I mentioned above, Lillard stands out amongst the elite options. Second, there aren't any cheap players that project to smash value, and I wouldn't expect anyone to be overly popular. Third, point guard is the weakest position on this slate, making spending for Dame even more appealing. Lastly, from purely a basketball perspective, Portland is one of the better teams to target tonight. I'd expect all of these factors to lead to Lillard being relatively popular.
Value Picks
Jimmy Butler ($8,400)
Butler is coming off a 22 DK point dud as the Heat got blown out early on Monday. His salary is still quite depressed, and Miami will be desperate for a win tonight to avoid going down 0-3. Recent performances could mean he goes somewhat overlooked.
Bam Adebayo ($7,500)
Adebayo has seen a significant drop in salary after being listed as high as $9,300 on May 7th. He went overlooked at $8,300 and $8,000 in the first two games of the series, but I'd expect people to take some chances on him tonight after such a steep decline. He should make value if the game stays close.
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,800)
It's still surprising to see Nurkic with a salary under $7,000. He was chalky on Tuesday and busted after getting in early foul trouble, and Portland got blown out. He's topped 40 DK points in four of his last six games and makes for one of the more appealing options on the slate, with the Trail Blazers expected to bounce back at home tonight.
Deandre Ayton ($6,300)
Ayton played 42 minutes on Tuesday as he posted a double-double and topped 20 real points for the second consecutive game. His salary is just too cheap, regardless of matchup, for the minutes bump that's expected to continue.
Goran Dragic ($5,100)
The same goes for Dragic. His salary still doesn't reflect the role he plays for the Heat in the playoffs. He's among the best value options on the slate and has considerable upside if the game stays competitive.
Cameron Payne ($4,800)
Payne is coming off 39.75 DK points on Tuesday, as he played 33 minutes off the bench with Chris Paul hampered by a shoulder injury. He should see plenty of run again tonight, with Paul unlikely to be at full strength. I'd expect him to be relatively popular.
