This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
BKN (-9.5) vs. IND, O/U: 237.5
DAL (-8.5) vs. DET, O/U: 215.5
GS (-5.5) vs. MIN, O/U: 235.5
MIL (-12.5) vs. HOU, O/U: 232.5
NO (-8.5) vs. OKC, O/U: 229.5
TOR vs. DEN (-4.5), O/U: 224.5
Four of the six games on tonight's slate have spreads of at least 8.5 points. Trying to predict blowouts isn't something I'd normally recommend, but it makes sense on a shorter slate like this one to target games that project to be competitive. In this case, two of the premier spend-up options in Nikola Jokic ($10,900) and Stephen Curry ($10,300) happen to be playing in those games, so it isn't a stretch to make them a priority. The GS-MIN matchup should be uptempo, and the Warriors are likely to be without Kelly Oubre, meaning Kent Bazemore will be a popular cheap value play. As far as the TOR-DEN matchup goes, the Nuggets have been an appealing team to target recently as the absence of Jamal Murray, and Will Barton has funneled usage to the likes of Jokic and Michael Porter, while Facundo Campazzo has been impressive starting at point guard. The Raptors have viable run-back options as the salaries of their big three have all come down over the past week. As things stand, it looks like we will have most of the significant news before lock, and that would be a welcome change from the recent chaos.
Injuries to Monitor
Luka Doncic (elbow): QUESTIONABLE
Doncic has been listed as questionable due to a sore elbow for the past two games but has yet to miss any time. Jalen Brunson and Trey Burke would be in line for expanded roles if Doncic were to miss.
Domantas Sabonis (back) and Myles Turner (foot): OUT
The Pacers continue to be shorthanded in the frontcourt as Sabonis and Turner are still out, while Goga Bitadze (ankle) is listed as questionable. Oshae Brissett and JaKarr Sampson have started the last two games.
Kristaps Porzingis (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Porzingis has missed three consecutive games due to a sprained ankle and is listed as questionable for tonight. Dwight Powell has been starting at center in his absence.
Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Cory Joseph, Wayne Ellington (rest): OUT
The Pistons will rest their veterans tonight. Killian Hayes, Josh Jackson, Sekou Doumbouya and Isaiah Stewart will likely enter the starting lineup alongside Saddiq Bey.
Kelly Oubre (wrist): DOUBTFUL
Oubre is considered doubtful after tweaking his wrist on Tuesday. Kent Bazemore will likely start at small forward.
Will Barton (hamstring): OUT
Barton will be sidelined for a fourth consecutive game due to a hamstring injury. PJ Dozier has been starting at small forward in his place.
Dorian Finney-Smith (leg), Maxi Kleber (back) and Josh Richardson (hamstring): QUESTIONABLE
The Mavericks have six players currently listed as questionable but the game tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST so we'll have starting lineups before lock. Finney-Smith and Kleber both played on Monday and Tuesday, while Richardson has missed the past three games.
Steven Adams (toe): QUESTIONABLE
Adams played only 13 minutes before leaving yesterday's game with the same toe injury that had him listed as questionable prior to tip-off. Willy Hernangomez would likely get the start at center if Adams were to miss.
Elite Players
Guard:
Stephen Curry ($10,300)
Curry was disappointing on Wednesday as the Mavericks blew out the Warriors, but tonight's matchup against the Timberwolves is arguably the best target on the slate and should be a nice bounce-back spot. He's put up 60+ DK points in four of his last nine games and is my preferred spend-up on the slate regardless of position.
Center:
Nikola Jokic ($10,900)
Jokic is coming off 62.75 DK points yesterday as he continues to play at an MVP level. He's scored 50+ in three consecutive games, and he's the safest of all the spend-up options tonight in a favorable matchup against the Raptors.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,100)
Towns has failed to reach 50 DK points in four straight games, but he won't be overly popular, and his salary is depressed. He has the upside to be the slate's highest scorer in any matchup, and tonight's game against the Warriors is particularly appealing, and that makes him a good pivot off of Jokic.
Forward:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000)
Giannis has put up 58+ DK points in four consecutive games. He's played 35+ minutes in three of the last four, but I don't think his playing time is quite that safe tonight as the Bucks are 12.5-point favorites against the Rockets. He has the upside to hit a ceiling in limited run, but I'll likely be spending up in matchups that project to be competitive.
Luka Doncic ($10,800)
Doncic is coming off 61 DK points last time out as the Mavericks routed the Warriors on Wednesday. Dallas are big favorites against Detroit tonight in a matchup that features the lowest total on the slate by a significant margin. That and the projected return of Kristaps Porzingis has me looking to pay up elsewhere.
Expected Chalk
Kent Bazemore ($3,900), if Kelly Oubre is out
Oubre is listed as doubtful tonight, and Bazemore is expected to start at small forward in his place. On April 21st, he put up a whopping 52.25 DK points in 35 minutes in his last start. His salary has also come down a bit, and the Warriors are in a nice spot tonight against the Timberwolves. I'd expect him to be quite popular, especially on a shorter slate without an abundance of clear value.
Willy Hernangomez ($4,100), if Steven Adams is out
Adams injured his toe yesterday and is listed as questionable for the second half of a back-to-back tonight. Hernangomez started at center on April 26th and scored 33 DK points in 31 minutes. That type of production for an affordable salary will make him a popular value play tonight if he gets the start.
Value Picks
Kevin Durant ($8,500)
Durant put up 45 DK points in 33 minutes last time out as his minutes have become less restricted. The salary is way too cheap if he sees similar run tonight in a favorable matchup against the Pacers.
Michael Porter ($8,300)
Porter has scored 43+ DK in four consecutive games as he's taken on a larger role in the absence of Jamal Murray and Will Barton. The Nuggets are 4.5 point favorites against the Raptors, and it's the closest spread on the slate.
Lonzo Ball ($6,800)
Ball is coming off a triple-double yesterday that saw him put up a massive 65.5 DK points. His salary won't be this cheap for long now that he's back to playing big minutes, and the Pelicans have a favorable matchup against the Thunder tonight.
Oshae Brissett ($5,300)
Brissett is coming off 49 DK points in 40 minutes last time out as the Pacers continue to be without Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. If Goga Bitadze is out again tonight, Brissett will see big minutes in an uptempo matchup against the Nets.
Facundo Campazzo ($4,600)
Campazzo has been the biggest beneficiary of Will Barton's absence. He put up 48.5 DK points yesterday and dished out double-digit assists for the second time in three games. The Nuggets are in a nice spot against the Raptors tonight.
Killian Hayes ($4,400) and Hamidou Diallo ($3,600)
The Pistons are resting four regular starters and are still missing Dennis Smith and Rodney McGruder. Hayes and Diallo are the cheapest of the viable options remaining, and they should see plenty of run make value.
