This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Rather than exclude any early games, DraftKings' featured slate is an all-day affair that kicks off at 12:30 p.m. EDT. Utilization of late swap will be of paramount importance today, since it looks like we have a lot of question marks for several teams. While the available information will be accurate when this article goes live, keep tuned in to RotoWire to find out more.
SLATE OVERVIEW
Targeted games in BOLD
Faded games in ITALIC
WAS vs. OKC (-10) O/U: 224
MEM vs. TOR (-6.5) O.U: 222
SA vs. NO (-3) O/U: 238.5
ORL vs. BOS (-6.5): O/U: N/A
PHI vs. POR (-2.5) O/U: 228.6
HOU vs. SAC (+5) O/U: 231.5
BKN vs. LAC (-13): O/U: N/A
(odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change)
I think it's prudent to focus on the later matchups so that we can effectively determine the best way to adjust our build. Late-breaking news will adversely affect seeding games moving forward, as teams elect to rest players once their playoff position is determined. Luckily, the Rockets/Kings and Nets/Clippers games are spots that are worth exploiting, so our ability to pivot within those games will be simple and straightforward. There isn't a game that I would fade outright, although I suspect the Grizzlies/Raptors contest could be a lopsided affair despite the must-win scenario for Memphis. This should keep the Grizzlies starting five on the floor for at least three quarters, but elites like Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam could see a usage decrease.
POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
On such a large slate, there will be no shortage of diverse builds you can make but the slate is thin at the center position. The baseline for centers is right at about $7,000, with few values below that number. Conversely, we have plenty of spots above a baseline of about $5,500 for guards, so our value positions will be easier to find. The forward spots also look remarkably deep today, and there are plenty of guys with hybrid eligibility. If you are going to utilize a two-center approach today, it's best to use a PF/C in the PF as opposed to your utility slot.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Russell Westbrook, HOU (quad) - OUT
Westbrook's absence equals all systems go for James Harden ($11,300), so we should just get his obvious value out of the way before we even get to the elites section. Ben McLemore ($3,800) impressed me in Westbrook's absence, and he's an excellent pivot in this spot if he can keep his three-point shot in line.
Ben Simmons, PHI (knee) - OUT
We all know by now Simmons is done for the season, but we should take a moment to see how the minutes were distributed in his absence. In the bubble, he spent most of his time at the four alongside Joel Embiid instead of his usual spot at point guard. Al Horford ($6,500) received the biggest boost with 21 points in 30 minutes. And of course, Tobias Harris ($8,700) enjoyed a surge with 23 points in 39 minutes. Using the 320 DKFP milestone as the reference point, getting $156.25 per DKFP is ideally what we look for when we build. While Harris was more expensive, he brought in a lot of ancillary numbers, leaving both players right around $175 per DKFP. While neither guy hits my requirement, a $2200 discrepancy in price for the same result is worth exploring.
Zion Williamson, NO - QUESTIONABLE
It's always smart to check on Zion to see what the Pelicans have planned. While most of their lineup isn't affected one way or the other, the usual second-unit players are worth an add. JJ Redick ($4,100) got the start in his absence on Friday, and his streakiness has dropped his price to a point that's worth considering. If we hear Zion is out or limited, Nicolo Melli's ($3,900) salary is at a place where we could easily see 7x value.
Caris LeVert, BKN (rest) - OUT
Jarrett Allen, BKN (ankle) - DOUBTFUL
To say that LeVert is overworked would be an understatement, as the Nets have leaned heavily on the standout guard of late. I like that this is the late game because as news comes out, we may be able to "save a spot" for the Net who might benefit the most from these absences. Rather than use a drawn-out sentence, I'll use bullet points for my pivot ideas. I'll say right off the bat my exposure to this spot won't be very high in cash, but it will likely play a key role in my GPP builds.
- LeVert pivot: Tyler Johnson ($5,400) CHALK, Chris Chiozza ($4,500) VALUE
- Allen pivot: Rodions Kurucs ($4,000), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($3,900) VALUE
Aaron Gordon, ORL (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
This is a spot I want to stay away from because Gordon's status is hard to nail down, and the game is smack-dab in the middle of the slate. My advice? I think if he feels well enough, he's just too expensive. If he sits, I have zero confidence in Gary Clark or Wes Iwundu. Only James Ennis III ($4,100) and Evan Fournier ($5,600) are value pivots I would consider.
Steven Adams, OKC (leg) - OUT
Like many of you, I heard this news and salivated at the prospect of a Nerlens Noel ($3,900) pivot. While he reached 5x value, we all certainly hoped for more. Darius Bazley ($3,400) and Luguentz Dort ($3,900) seemed to benefit more, and I continue to be high on Dort - although I'm fine with giving Noel another shot against the Wizards. Not only is he a lot of fun to watch, I like being contrarian when I hear a lot of other pundits say "no, thanks" when discussing Dort's viability. If you're gunning for multiple elites, this is probably a spot you'll need to hit.
ELITE PLAYERS
We already touched on James Harden, and there's not a lot to say that hasn't already been said. He's a three-point ringer who is bound to shine without Westbrook, and you can stomach the high turnover count. And he's also enjoyed a great history against the Kings.
Damian Lillard, POR ($10,000) vs. PHI
I've mentioned the dreaded seesaw effect of Lillard and CJ McCollum ($7,800) more times than I can count. It's incredibly frustrating. The likelihood both players crush value is excessively low, and it's tempting to just roll with McCollum due to the lower price. I'm mentioning him here without necessarily giving an endorsement. As I said, your value today is at the guard position. And while I love the Trail Blazers against a shaky Philly backcourt, I don't know that we need to spend this much to get that value. If you're a believer in using metrics from the pre-COVID era (I am, to an extent), you'll see Lillard fared exponentially better against the Sixers in the single game this season. Based on that alone, my exposure to him is increased a few percentage points.
Kawhi Leonard, LAC ($9,300) vs. BKN
Kawhi got a rest day on Saturday, so that's great for him. Is it great for us? I've endorsed Paul George ($8,400) on every slate he's appeared in, but today I'm leaning a little bit more towards Kawhi. For one, DraftKings has finally caught on to PG's hype and lifted him up to $8,400. It's warranted, but it puts George in shaky territory when it comes to beating value. I'd put his floor at around 40 DKFP, so his dollar-per-point comes in at an undesirable $210. Kawhi's number isn't much better, but there's a higher probability he can take over a game and either make or break your slate.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR ($8,900) vs. Joel Embiid, PHI ($10,600)
This is a tough spot. Nurkic's numbers are insane and Embiid is, well, Embiid. This is bound to be a hotly-contested game in the paint, but let's drill this down a bit. With maybe Memphis as the exception, Nurkic's best numbers have come against teams that don't offer marquee centers. His lowest number in the bubble came opposite Nikola Jokic, and his best numbers came against the undersized Rockets. So draw your own conclusions, but I think Embiid wins this race by a mile. Centers are at a premium today, so Embiid - while expensive - remains a worthwhile investment.
Ja Morant, MEM ($8,600) vs. TOR
It's time to move Morant from chalk to just plain elite because his popularity on a nightly basis is evident and well-founded. He's hit a number I am satisfied with relative to his salary in three of his five contests. Sometimes when I write up a guy, I can find reasons to fade him. For example, the Raptors' pace will slow this game down. Also, Morant hasn't played Toronto yet. Still, if you factor in the Grizzlies' absolute need to win this game and the talent of the probable Rookie of the Year, you have to roll with him. Morant's exposure may be a little lighter for me today, but I'll still have plenty of him in my builds.
Also consider: Chris Paul, OKC ($8,300) vs. WAS
EXPECTED CHALK ANd OTHER TARGETS
De'Aaron Fox, SAC ($7,800) vs. HOU
Fox will be very popular on Sunday, and for good reason. While the Rockets are prolific offensively, they possess an extremely generous defense, especially in the backcourt. I don't think the Kings will be able to keep up with Houston, but I'm counting on them to stay competitive enough that Fox still sees 35 minutes or more. He produced a poor night from beyond the arc but still managed 52 DKFP in his only meeting against Houston this season.
Jonas Valanciunas, MEM ($7,200) vs. TOR
Valanciunas has registered double-doubles in all but one game in the bubble, and he holds a decent size advantage over the Raptors. Serge Ibaka (eye) will be limited, and I think he dominates any matchup with Marc Gasol, who has been mostly a non-factor in a starting role. Jonas is my "budget" pick at center today due to the lack of quantity at the position.
Derrick White, SA ($6,100) vs. NO
White has posted monster totals while flying under the radar, but I think enough players have taken notice by this point and he's no longer a secret. I wouldn't depend on past metrics when it comes to White because like T.J. Warren, he's used the break to fine-tune his shooting and up his overall game. His role at off-guard is cemented and is a lock for 30 minutes in this matchup. DeMar DeRozan experienced issues against the Pelicans earlier this season, so the Spurs may rely on White even more tonight.
Kemba Walker, BOS ($6, 100) vs. ORL
There are a lot of mouths to feed in Boston and I'm sure many will balk at his minutes restriction, but when Walker's salary is this low you have to start thinking about the inherent value he possesses. To be frank, I don't have a problem with Jaylen Brown ($6.900) or Marcus Smart ($6,000) because both are reasonably priced, but Walker's potential in the bubble is as yet unrealized and his popularity is going to be much lower than the rest of Boston's cast.
Also consider: Thomas Bryant, WAS ($7,400) vs. OKC, Robert Covington, HOU ($6,400) vs. SAC
KEY VALUES
As per the earlier injury section, my favorite values are McLemore, Dort, Horford and Chiozza. The allotment of pivots in the injury section are essential in today's build. I've added a couple more choices below.
Troy Brown Jr., WAS ($5,900) vs. OKC
All of Brown's totals in the bubble have exceeded my initial expectations, and at $5,900 is extremely valuable when you consider his potential to hit 40 DKFP on any given night. Via my projections, he figures to have one of the best point-per-dollar numbers on the slate. The Thunder didn't look great against the Grizzlies and they had a tough time stopping Dillon Brooks. Brown should have equal luck at his position against OKC. While we are on the subject of Brooks ($5,600), he's also a great play at this salary level.
Ivica Zubac, LAC ($5,400) vs. BKN
Zubac is a nice sneaky pick to go with against Brooklyn, who will be without Jarrett Allen. The big man's numbers have been excellent over the past several contests, averaging 13.5 points, 12 rebounds and two assists over four games. As long as he sees his usual 25 minutes, he's an excellent value candidate.
That's it for Sunday. Keep your eye on our advanced lineups tool before game lock to get news on starters, along with tons of useful data!
