This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
DraftKings' Sunday slate provides a six-game offering of exciting contests. Let's dive right into the action!
SLATE OVERVIEW
BKN (-1.5) vs. WAS O/U: 234.5
BOS (-4) vs. POR O/U:229.5
MEM (-2.5) vs. SA O/U: 235
ORL (-2.5) vs. SAC O/U: 226.5
MIL (-3.5) @ HOU O/U: 242
DAL (-5.5) @ PHO O/U: 236.5
[odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change]
At first glance, the Rockets-Bucks game stands out as the obvious headliner, and it's also where the majority of our elites will come from. The Mavericks were successful in neutralizing Houston's small-ball lineup for the majority of Friday's humongous 302-point extravaganza, and I think the Bucks will have similar - and perhaps more substantial success. You've got many targets to consider in this matchup. I also anticipate the Mavericks-Suns contest will give us a fast pace and a wide variety of opportunities, especially with the new crop of value candidates that cropped up for Dallas on Friday. I'm not as thrilled about the Spurs or the Nets in their matchups, although it's acceptable to dig into their rosters for some GPP value (I rostered Lonnie Walker with some success). I also think the Kings produced some confusing results, and aside from De'Aaron Fox, anyone in the ensemble could pop on any given night. My exposure to Sacramento will be substantially lighter today.
ELITE PLAYERS
James Harden ($11,000) played out of his mind against the Mavericks, but Harden had one of his lighter box scores of the year against the Bucks. Although he produced 14 assists, he totaled a paltry 19 points. Conversely, Russell Westbrook ($9,800) had a 24/16 double-double, but we are talking about a team that hadn't made the switch to the undersized Houston team we see today. We probably shouldn't give much credence to these scores, but no matter how you slice it, slotting either of these players will lower your per-player salary average to anywhere between $5,600 (Harden) and $5,700 (Westbrook). I think you fall behind the pace in cash if you don't roster one of them, but fading them in GPP lineups may very well be the way to go as both will definitely exceed 20 percent exposure in those contests.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($11,000) @ HOU
If I'm going to spend, it will likely be here with Giannis. I also suspect the Greek Freak's triple-double against the Rockets becomes a definite possibility, especially with Houston's new lineup. Aside from perhaps Robert Covington, the Rockets lack a player that can contain Giannis successfully. Teams like the Raptors, Clippers and Lakers possess enough frontcourt size to keep Giannis out of the interior, but that's simply not the case with Houston. Kristaps Porzingis handled Houston with very little resistance on Friday. And while Giannis and Prozingis are quite different, their 3-level shooting skills remain very similar. He needs 55 DKFP to reach 5x value, and I think he'll exceed that on Sunday.
Jayson Tatum, BOS ($8,200) vs. POR
Tatum represents an excellent elite GPP opportunity after what was probably the worst shooting night of his career (2-18 FG). He's shot 45.5 percent from the floor over three seasons. And if you couple Portland's fast pace and Kemba Walker's minutes restriction, Tatum should do just fine. His value as a GPP is based on what I expect will be a low rostering number in most formats.
Also consider: Devin Booker, PHO ($8,700) vs. DAL
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM ($5,200) vs. SA
Jackson's performance didn't surprise me one bit, which is why I had him in several lineups on Friday. However, I don't think many expected him to pop with 9x value on his salary. I'm surprised Jackson's cost has only risen $300, but his role for Memphis on both ends of the floor is well-cemented and even at $5,200, he can stand a substantial regression and still get 6x value at this price.
Ja Morant, MEM ($7,300) vs. SA
While we're on the subject of the Grizzlies, Morant was a very popular pick in all formats his first time out. He could be in line for more than the 47.5 DKFP he put up in the first game, as his two-game history against the Spurs is solid. The Spurs blew them out by 30 in the first outing, but Morant threw up 22 points, 14 dimes, and a couple of steals in the second meeting. I'll have decent exposure on him and for good reason, as I only need around 35 DKFP for him to be worth the price.
Khris Middleton, MIL ($7,800) @ HOU
Players who want a piece of this game without spending up for Giannis will flock to Middleton, as he put up his usual inflated stat line in his first seeding game (38.8 DKFP). He only shot 6-of-20 from the floor, a number that should considerably improve after shaking off the rust. I foresee Middleton trading shots with Houston's backcourt duo and probably seeing better looks in the process, as the Rockets are historically pretty friendly to opposing wing players.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR ($7,700) @ BOS
Nurkic earned every bit of his $1,800 increase after his monstrous stat line, and it appears his horrific leg injury from last March is entirely behind him. The division under the basket between Nurkic and Zach Collins was a lot more lopsided than I anticipated, and his stellar play even kept Hassan Whiteside at bay. Portland has a true luxury with guys like Collins and Whiteside coming off the bench and Nurkic may give up some output to them in the future, but I had a wish list to fill. Moving from Deandre Ayton to Nurkic made things work and I think he's worth the risk, especially in your large-field lineups.
Robert Covington, HOU ($6,400) vs. MIL
I mentioned Covington as a guy who can square up against Giannis, and he will be super chalky after his 44 DKFP performance on Friday. He emerged as the perfect solution to Eric Gordon's (ankle) absence, and he managed that total despite a chilly shooting night. Covington hasn't faced the Bucks yet and we don't have concrete data, but his superb defensive play should come in handy for the Rockets on Friday. Hopefully, that will translate into solid DFS numbers.
Also consider: Tim Hardaway Jr., DAL ($6,100) @ PHO, Gordon Hayward, BOS ($7,100) vs. POR, CJ McCollum, POR ($7,700) @ BOS
VALUE PICKS
Evan Fournier, ORL ($5,900) vs. SAC
Fournier significantly outplayed his $5,600 salary on Friday, so his slightly elevated price is no surprise. His FP number depends a lot on how well he shoots as he isn't going to give you much in other categories. Fournier should have ample opportunity against the Kings, who have one of the worst scoring defenses of the 22 teams in the bubble. He also enjoyed an easy time with Sacramento in their single matchup this season.
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SAC ($5,000) @ ORL
Bogdanovic's bargain price allows him to fit in several lineups, and it's hard to ignore his six drilled threes in Friday's contest. I think he's more of a GPP play because you never know if Buddy Hield will get hot and supplant him in the lineup. While we are with the Kings and potential targets, I also have some exposure to Kent Bazemore ($4,400), who is priced attractively and may not be all that popular on Sunday.
Daniel Theis, BOS ($5,100) vs. POR
Does anyone else look at Al Horford's name and forget he's no longer with Boston? It happens to me every once in a while and with the lack of size in Boston's frontcourt, you almost wish he was there. You've still got Daniel Theis, who isn't the flashiest pick but had a nice 10/12 double-double and also drained a couple from beyond the arc against the Bucks. He's involved in a higher-paced game on Sunday. And while the Blazers can roll out three talented centers, you have to expect Theis will get his share of looks inside. I don't expect Enes Kanter to take much of his potential output away. Since he's slightly under the radar, I'd consider Theis as more of a GPP selection.
Trey Burke, DAL ($3,800) @ PHO
I'll hop on the bandwagon here, even though I don't expect Burke to replicate his superior performance from Friday. The Mavs haven't distinguished themselves outside of Luka Doncic and Porzingis, and your average NBA fan would have some trouble naming their starting lineup. Without Jalen Brunson (shoulder) locked in the second unit, it's open season on who fills that spot. J.J. Barea and Delon Wright played fine, but Burke outshined all of them. I expect him to be kind of a Lonnie Walker/Georges Niang-type player, who will occasionally have some bursts but will be hard to predict in general. Burke comes in at a great price and could allow you more expensive targets elsewhere.
That's all for Sunday. Don't forget to double-check your lineups before lock. And the best way to do that? Head to our advanced lineups page to get everything you need, including usage and PPM numbers. I'll be around before lock, so if you have any questions, you can find me on Twitter via the link below.
